I personally love how close the Iowa caucus turned out in the Democratic race. You can see Hillary picking up many of the 2008 Edwards voters, but Bernie offsetting those gains in the western part of the state. I love Democratic primaries/caucuses.
It is an gigantic tribute to Bernie’s campaign for pulling IA into a tie. And we have to assume NH is Bernie country — he will win by 25 points there, unless something goes awry. So, Bernie and his supporters deserve some huge kudos.
The question is what comes next and who the next Democratic voters are. Here are a few thoughts on what I think both candidates need to do to build momentum over the next two months to move toward the nomination.
First, the obvious point. Bernie is still the gigantic underdog. Anyone who disagrees with this is just not paying attention. After NH, there is not an obvious Sanders state left on the ballot. There are states where he could play, for sure, but not a state where he is obviously ahead.
When you look at the states in the immediate future, I only count Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Vermont as possible Bernie states through March 2. I think he loses badly in SC and NV, but we’ll see how things unfold.
Bernie has one month to make up huge ground in these most friendly March 1st primary/caucus states. He starts down in MA and MN by similar 25-point deficits. I haven’t seen VT polls, so who can say? I don’t see any other competitive states through March 2nd, with AL, AR, CO, GA, OK, TN, TX, and VA also on the ballot on March 1.
So, my question is after NH, where does Bernie plant his flag? And how does he adjust his platform to attract voters in those states? I honestly don’t have a great suggestion for him.
For Hillary, I do think she can sure up CO, MA, and MN — maybe add VA and TX — by running hard left on clean energy and climate action. I would embrace O’Malley’s message of 100% renewables by 2050, or something close to it. That could win MOM’s support and win a whole lot of progressive votes in the primary.
Bernie’s problem is he doesn’t have flexibility to tack to the middle. Some may say he doesn’t have to. I’m not sure I agree. He doesn’t need to sacrifice his principles, but he does need to reassure voters in the middle.
But don’t take my word. Just ask yourself this question: Who has the better opportunity to expand the electorate in the Democratic and ultimately the general election? It’s not a simple question, but I do think it has an obvious answer. And the question goes to Bernie and his supporters: How do you build on Iowa? I don’t have a great answer, so I’m open to suggestions.
In any event, both Hillary and Bernie need to recalibrate, and they both have some ground to secure. I think Hillary has space on clean energy and climate action. She can also carve out more space on Wall St. reform and income equality. I’m just not convinced Bernie has the same space in which to move.
We’ll see.