I have predicted that one result of Bernie winning the Democratic nomination is Mike Bloomberg would be likely to enter the race. And if that happened, it would split the Democratic vote more than the Republican vote and lead to a Republican victory in November.
But if it is Bernie vs Trump, and assuming Bloomberg gets in, I think the dynamics shift a bit and many Republicans would also cross over to support Bloomberg, with the result being a Bloomberg victory.
Jonathan Chait sees it the same way: nymag.com/…
The key point:
But if Trump and Sanders win their nominations... Instead of the socially liberal–fiscally conservative set having too much representation, it would suddenly have too little. A candidate who is neither a socialist nor a racist would have a large niche.
A likely Bloomberg candidacy in the event of a Bernie nomination should not be dismissed lightly. And if that were to happen, Bloomberg would do well in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, which are key to a Democratic victory.
But a Bernie vs Trump vs Bloomberg race would be wide open. I’d be willing to bet a significant number of Democratic and Republican leaders would come out in favor of Bloomberg. And I think Bloomberg would have broad appeal in the middle of the electorate.