This list seeks to explain the state of the New York State Senate. I did my best to cite specific articles regarding these races; however, many of the districts are uncompetitive and there simply isn’t much to work with. It’s still early, and these races are very much in flux. This is an initial election outlook, and hopefully I will do an update on relevant races closer to the election. All ratings are subjective and can change as circumstances change.
District 1: Senator Ken LaValle (R); Safe R: Senator Ken LaValle has represented this eastern Long Island district that stretches from Port Jefferson out to Montauk Point since 1976. President Obama got 51% of the vote in this district; however, in 2014, LaValle got 70% of the vote. Without a major gaffe I think LaValle skates to re-election again.
District 2: Senator John Flanagan (R): Senator Flanagan is the Senate Majority Leader; he took over after Dean Skelos resigned the title after being charged and convicted of federal corruption. Flanagan won with 69% of the vote here in 2014. Mitt Romney carried this district with 52% in 2012; however, Mitt Romney’s brand of country club politics probably played well here, and a nominee like Trump or Cruz could probably weigh down Flanagan’s margins here, but not enough to put him in any danger. Flanagan is safe barring any sort of ethical missteps.
District 3: Senator Tom Croci (R): Tom Croci is the former Islip Town Supervisor and a navy commander. Croci is certainly conservative, but does well in this portion of Long Island. In his last election here against environmental activist Adrienne Esposito he won with 58% of the vote. While Croci has a good profile, he does have some lingering issues. While he was town supervisor, contractors were dumping noxious materials into Roberto Clemente Park in Brentwood, which contains a large Hispanic population. Croci has a pretty great alibi on this: he was stationed in Afghanistan when it happened. It’s unlikely that further information will surface, but not out of the realm of possibility. It’s also possible an opponent could surface that gives Croci a real challenge, but the democratic base here is notably weak, aside from County Legislator William Lindsay, or Assemblyman Phil Ramos, the latter of which, won’t likely run.
District 4: Senator Phil Boyle (R); Likely R: Phil Boyle represents my home district, and despite being in the opposing party, I’ve found him to be, at the very least, mostly thoughtful and always gentlemanly. Boyle used to be a staffer for former congressman and gubernatorial candidate Rick Lazio, and is very much cut from the same cloth. County Legislator Lou D’Amaro would be a competitive candidate here, but he said in early January he wouldn’t run.
District 5: Senator Carl Marcellino (R); Likely R: Carl Marcellino is one of those senators who’s vulnerable but never loses due to the power of incumbency. Marcellino won 62% of the vote in 2014, and 59% in 2012, but neither time had particularly good opponents. Marcellino could be vulnerable this time around, but until the race solidifies, I’m leaving this at Likely R.
District 6: Senator Kemp Hannon (R); Tossup: Kemp Hannon had close calls in 2008 and 2012 in this 54% (2012) Obama district. In 2008, he won by about 3,000 votes to a candidate with no money, and in 2012 he won by about 4,000 votes to challenger Ryan Cronin. Hannon is definitely a top target this cycle, and in presidential years Long Island votes slightly towards dems. This may be the year he loses, though the Senate Democrats have yet to recruit a candidate.
District 7: Senator Jack Martins (R) (Open); Tossup: Senator Martins is potentially abandoning his seat here to run for the 3rd congressional seat being vacated by Steve Israel (I say potentially in all the races where a senator is running for Congress due to the fact that the federal and state primaries are held on different days; therefore, one can lose the federal primary and drop back into the state primary). Businessman Adam Haber, last seen losing a senate election to Martins in 2014 (57%-43%) is looking to be the democratic nominee. He may have better luck in a presidential year, as this seat went for President Obama with 53% of the vote in 2012. Haber also lost in a primary to be the democratic candidate for Nassau County Executive in 2013. No clear candidate has emerged for the Republicans, assuming Martins wins his congressional primary. Newsday pointed to Nassau County Legislator Laura Schaefer, but she hasn’t commented. This seat is essential for the Senate Democrats to regain the majority. It’s going to be challenging and very expensive, but a win here would be a very good omen for democrats on election night.
District 8: Senator Mike Venditto (R); Lean R: This race is . . . strange. In 2014, this seat was open due to the retirement of Senator Charles Fuschillo. While this district has largely been democratic at the local (especially in the Town of Babylon) and presidential levels, it's been stubbornly republican at the state senate level, largely due to Fuschillo's popularity. Mike Venditto is son of Oyster Bay Town Supervisor John Venditto, who has held the Supervisor seat since 1998, but surprisingly (to literally everyone) only won his re-election in 2015 by 99 votes after a legal battle. This close race likely had to do with two factors: a scandal that's still playing out regarding some pay-to-play corruption cases plaguing the town, and the arrest of Dean Skelos, who Venditto is tied to via the Nassau County Republican Committee.
The younger Venditto had the pleasure of running against spectacular candidate David Denenberg, a county legislator who was later convicted of falsely billing legal clients out of millions of dollars and subsequently lost his law license. All of the accusations of wrongdoing came out during the campaign, but Denenberg would have had a tough fight even without legal troubles. In 2016, in this 56% Obama district, with a candidate whose last name currently has a cloud over it, a democrat would be favored. Unfortunately, the bench here is very slim. Assemblywoman Kimberly Jean-Pierre may live in the Wheatley Heights portion of the district (she may also live in SD-4, I'm not sure), and Suffolk County Legislature Chairman Dwayne Gregory lives here. Jean-Pierre replaced retiring Assemblyman Robert Sweeney in 2014 and is unlikely to run. Gregory is challenging Peter King for his congressional seat and was pursued to replace Sweeney in 2014, but ultimately declined to run. Babylon Town Supervisor and Democratic Party Chairman Richard Schaffer could presumably run, but he seems to enjoy being the longest serving Town Supervisor in Babylon history. I'm leaving this race at Lean R until a democratic candidate emerges.
District 9: Vacant (Assemblyman Todd Kaminsky vs. Chris McGrath (Special Election April 19)); Lean D: This seat is vital for control of the Senate. Former Senator Dean Skelos represented this 54% Obama district for many years. Surprisingly, Assemblyman Brian Curran took a pass on running for this seat in the special election in favor of political neophyte Chris McGrath. Curran’s decision is probably due to republicans in Nassau seeking a candidate who doesn’t have party ties that are as blatant as Curran’s and has some distance from County Executive Ed Mangano. The candidate for democrats is former federal prosecutor and Assemblymember Todd Kaminsky. Kaminsky is probably the best candidate Nassau County democrats could have hoped for; he currently has at least $332,000 on hand for a special election, and prosecuted corrupt democrats and republicans alike. While in recent days it’s been observed that Kaminsky had a voicemail set up at a prominent politically connected law firm, he never actually worked there. A spokesperson for the firm stated that the IT people knew Kaminsky was being recruited (something Kaminsky doesn’t deny) and “got ahead of themselves.” While that seems very strange, if there’s no outside income, there’s no outside income.
Republicans are trying to tie convicted former Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver to Kaminsky. Kaminsky did vote for Silver for Speaker. We can get into a debate over this, but a freshman democratic Assemblyman not voting for the Speaker in this house is akin to calling in sick on your first day of work. In addition, the Assembly failed to pass a constitutional amendment last year that would strip convicted politicians of their state pensions, which republicans are criticizing Kaminsky over. Apparently there’s some wrangling over the language and Speaker Heastie is working to finalize a bill for the vote, so this may be null and void by the time an election is called. In this race, and the race for Senator Larkin’s seat (see below), Republicans seem to be using the Karl Rove strategy of attacking your opponent on your own weakness.
This race, both the special and the general election, will be very hard fought and very expensive. This is arguably THE most crucial seat for democrats to regain the majority.
District 10: Senator James Sanders (D); Safe D: This seat has a troubled past. It seems this swath of southeastern Queens can't seem to elect good people. Councilman Ruben Wills was formerly Chief of Staff to Senator Shirley Huntley, who is currently being investigated by authorities. Several Assembly members in the area have been investigated and/or convicted of corruption. Senator James Sanders, then a City Councilman, defeated Huntley in a primary prior to her being convicted and sentenced, but it now appears that Sanders has been interviewed by the FBI on possible corruption charges. If there's legs to these FBI inquires, Sanders could be vulnerable to a primary. Speaking of which, Sanders filed paperwork to primary Congressman Greg Meeks, who also has had his share of questionable ethics in the past. Whatever happens here, with Sanders vacating for Congress, or due to jail time, this seat is almost certainly going to elect a democrat.
District 11: Senator Tony Avella (IDC); Likely IDC: Senator Tony Avella is abrasive, and seemingly all about Tony Avella. After beating long-time Senator Frank Padavan in 2010, Avella turned on the Senate Democratic caucus; they spent a lot of money to get him elected, and Avella switched to the IDC. While Avella remains popular in the district, to Albany and Queens County insiders, he's known as a bully, an iconoclast, and all-around extremely unpleasant. A primary could come in the form of someone with county backing, but until that materializes, it's hard to judge what may happen. If someone like Councilman Paul Vallone ran, he could give Avella a scare; however, Vallone just has up to two more terms in the Council and I doubt he'd want to take a pay cut to challenge Avella. For now I'm leaving this race at likely IDC.
District 12: Senator Michael Gianaris (D); Safe D: Senator Gianaris has represented this mostly Astoria-LIC-Sunnyside with sprinkles of Woodside, Maspeth, Ridgewood, and Woodhaven district since 2008. He represented an Astoria-LIC seat in the Assembly prior to that, and should have no trouble winning again. He’s the chamber’s Deputy Minority Leader and in charge of the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee (DSCC). He’s very active in the district (I am a constituent) and is likely looking to run for Attorney General should the position become open in 2017. If he chooses to run, expect Assemblywoman Aravella Simotas to try to move up to the Senate, and any number of local civic activists to try to claim her seat. Potentially, a member of Councilmember Costa Constantinides’ staff would be interested, as the councilmember still is eligible for two more terms in the City Council. Gianaris is a lock for 2016 though.
District 13: Senator Jose Peralta (D); Safe D: Senator Peralta has represented this Jackson Heights-Corona-based district since he defeated disgraced ex-Senator Hiram Monserrate in a special election in 2010. Peralta briefly ran for Queens Borough President until his name surfaced in an FBI investigation largely due to ex-Senator Shirley Huntley cooperating with the authorities. Peralta was never charged with any wrongdoing and has continued to represent this seat. Clearly with his BP bid, Peralta is looking to move up and would probably be a good candidate for the majority Latino, but very diverse, 14th district represented by Congressman and Queens County Chairman Joe Crowley. Crowley hasn’t given any indication he’ll retire, but it’s something to keep in mind should the congressman hang it up.
District 14: Senator Leroy Comrie (D); Safe D: Senator Comrie defeated now-jailed ex-Majority Leader and IDC member Malcolm Smith in this Southeast Queens district. Comrie served as a city councilman for many years before his role in the Senate, and briefly served as a Deputy Borough President. Unless a notion of impropriety rears its head, Comrie should easily be re-elected.
District 15: Senator Joe Addabbo (D); Lean D: Senator Joe Addabbo continues to be vulnerable, but favored to win in November. Addabbo defeated City Councilman Eric Ulrich in the general election with 55% of the vote in 2014. This district is largely south central Queens and the Rockaway peninsula. This district is more conservative than NYC’s median district, but Addabbo’s father was a congressman in the area, and he seems to be very active in the district. Ulrich likely won’t run again here, but I believe former Congressman and now Queens Republican Chairman Bob Turner lives in the district. He could decide he wants to challenge Addabbo, but that’s just pure speculation.
District 16: Senator Toby Stavisky (D); Safe D: Senator Toby Stavisky has been the target of primary challenges in the past for no particular reason. Her base is in Forest Hills/Elmhurst/Rego Park where a good portion of the district is centered; however, this district has a very high percentage of Asian American voters as it contains most of Flushing. She was challenged in 2014 by S.J. Jung and he even out-raised Stavisky. That said, Stavisky defeated Jung 57%-43% in the primary. It's also worth noting that Stavisky's son, Evan, runs the Parkside Group, which is a major local consulting firm for democratic candidates. It's going to be hard to dislodge Stavisky when she has the county machine and Parkside at her back.
District 17: Senator Simcha Felder (D; caucuses with Republicans); Safe D: Simcha Felder is the democrat from Brooklyn who caucuses with the republicans. While that sounds very strange, Felder’s Borough Park-Flatbush-Midwood-Sheepshead Bay district has the largest concentration of Hasidim outside of Israel. Felder has frequently said that he makes his decisions on whom to caucus based on who will help him do the most for his constituents. This got him a subcommittee chairmanship on the Education Committee and Chairmanship of the Cities Committee. Felder is unlikely to lose this district and he could end up playing kingmaker again if the senate becomes even more closely divided.
District 18: Senator Martin Dilan (D); Safe D: Senator Dilan represents this sprawling (by Brooklyn standards) Greenpoint-Bushwick-Williamsburg-Cypress Hills district. This district has gone through a lot of changes over the past two decades and Dilan was a major ally of disgraced late Assemblymember and Brooklyn Democratic Party Chairman Vito Lopez. Despite the noxious ties to Lopez, Dilan is likely to be re-elected to this seat by a wide margin.
District 19: Senator Roxanne Persaud (D); Safe D: Senator Persaud won this seat in a special election to replace ex-Majority Leader John Sampson who was convicted on corruption charges. This district is based in eastern Brooklyn and is extremely democratic. She’s likely to face a primary challenge from Charles and Inez Barron-backed candidate Mercedes Narcisse. Narcisse had a falling out with Brooklyn Democratic Chairman and former Assemblyman Frank Seddio (likely over her challenge to Alan Maisel for the Canarsie/Mill Basin-based council seat). Seddio also lives in this area, and worked hard to re-elect Sampson in an interesting 3D chess game of electoral politics (seriously, this is really worth reading about). The Barrons haven’t been particularly successful in their primary challenges in the past (Charles challenged Hakeem Jefferies for Congress upon the retirement of Ed Towns); Persaud is the favorite in this race. Even if she loses, this district is so democratic it gave President Obama 89% of the vote in 2012. Safe D.
District 20: Senator Jesse Hamilton (D); Safe D: I don’t think Senator Hamilton is vulnerable at all, and this isn’t really relevant, but his Crown Heights-Brownsville-Sunset Park-Gowanus district looks like a bird. That said, Hamilton last won this district with 96% of the vote against a Conservative Party Challenger. Hamilton briefly considered joining the IDC, but ultimately didn’t. Unless Hamilton makes a major error, he’s likely to retain this seat, and even if he does, Dems are virtually assured to retain this seat.
District 21: Senator Kevin Parker (D); Safe D: Senator Parker, who has had issues due to his infamous temperament, easily won this Flatbush-Park Slope based district with 96% of the vote in 2014. He’d be potentially vulnerable in a primary, but until that happens, he’s essentially a lock for re-election. Safe D.
District 22: Senator Marty Golden (R); Lean R: Golden represents the most conservative portions of southern Brooklyn, aside from Borough Park. Despite having lost his native Bay Ridge neighborhood, and having to cancel a very sexist feminine etiquette class, Golden beat current Brooklyn Borough President staffer Andrew Gounardes with 57% of the vote in 2014. Councilman Vinny Gentile, last seen getting destroyed by Congressman Dan Donovan, represents large portions of this district, and actually was defeated by Golden for an earlier version of this seat. Gentile then ran for Golden’s council seat and won; the two just switched seats. Even if Gentile doesn’t run, or gets a judgeship, Bay Ridge democratic activist, former Gentile/current Department of Education staffer, and guitarist of hardcore bands Indecision and Most Precious Blood Justin Brannan could run here. Personally, I’d love to see Brannan run because he’s interesting, dynamic, and all-around seems to be a very likable person (plus I’m a fan of his music), but until he makes that decision this race would probably slightly favor Golden despite this district going marginally to President Obama in 2012.
District 23: Senator Diane Savino (IDC); Safe IDC: I’m not sure what Senator Savino would have to do to lose this 69% Obama, North Shore-Southern Brooklyn based district. Insult Nathan’s Famous? Say she prefers Six Flags to Coney Island? Eat pizza with a fork and knife? Whatever it is, she’s unlikely to do it.
District 24: Senator Andrew Lanza (R); Safe R: This district is wholly contained within Staten Island, and most of the democratic leaning parts of the island are in Diane Savino’s district. Seeing as SI elected Dan Donovan to Congress recently, and the unpopularity of Mayor Bill de Blasio in the borough, this seat is safe R. Mike Cusick, a conservative Staten Island democratic assemblymember would be our best bet here and would still likely fall short.
District 25: Senator Valmanette Montgomery (D); Safe D: Montgomery has held this Bed-Stuy based district for a long time. She’d be most vulnerable in a primary, but it’s unlikely any sitting elected officials would risk their current jobs to challenge her. What’s always interesting to watch is if petitions get challenged, or in the case of some Brooklyn candidates, the nominee fails to file for their candidacy. This race could be thrown into flux if an abnormal situation like that arises. I don’t expect that to happen to Montgomery, but never say never.
District 26: Senator Daniel Squadron (D); Safe D: Dan Squadron has represented this lower Manhattan-Williamsburg-Brownstone Brooklyn district since 2008. Squadron won this district in 2014 with 86% of the vote and is a former staff member of Senator Chuck Schumer’s, so he’d likely get Schumer’s support in a primary. Squadron may face opposition again this year from a republican opponent, but it doesn’t really matter.
District 27: Senator Brad Hoylman (D); Safe D: Senator Brad Hoylman won this district with 85% of the vote in 2014. Hoylman is unlikely to face a primary, and will win this district easily; he could be a pol to watch in the future as a potential candidate for Jerry Nadler’s seat, or high statewide office, but until then, he’ll retain this seat.
District 28: Senator Liz Kruegar; Safe D: This district may once have been solid silk stocking republican, but no more. This Upper-East-Side to the East Village district has no chance at flipping to a republican even if Kruegar were to retire, which she hasn’t hinted at. Safe D.
District 29: Senator Jose Serrano (D); Safe D: Senator Serrano represents this district which includes much of the south Bronx, East Harlem, and oddly enough Central Park/the Upper West Side. The south Bronx and East Harlem are low income, and Central Park and the Upper West Side are very high income. From a communities-of-interest perspective, this district is a mess. That said, Serrano can easily win this in the general election, but his Congressman father (also Jose) has seemingly fallen out of favor with the Bronx County machine. Annabel Palma registered a campaign committee with the FEC in 2014, but didn’t give Congressman Serrano much of a fight. Now that Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, former Bronx Chairman, has a much larger fundraising apparatus, if he and the machine want to defeat the Serranos, this is the year to do it. Either way, safe D.
District 30: Senator Bill Perkins (Vacant – Potentially): This district is located right in the middle of Harlem, and while gentrification has not truly transformed this district, it’s certainly changing. It’s way more Latino than it used to be, and is going to be something to watch going forward demographically. Perkins is potentially abandoning this seat to run for Charlie Rangel’s congressional seat, and he could technically drop down to the senate primary should it look bad or he lose. I expect many ambitious individuals to run for this seat, but it will almost assuredly remain in democratic hands.
District 31: Senator Adriano Espillat (Vacant – Potentially) (D); Safe D: Senator Espillat is once again trying to win Charlie Rangel’s congressional seat. His upper-Manhattan district is very Hispanic and very democratic. Should he be the nominee for the congressional seat he’d be the overwhelming favorite to win. If he loses that primary, he could always drop back into the senate seat, and he’s now done this twice before. Former Councilman Robert Jackson has criticized Espillat for this and is running to replace him. More candidates may emerge, but this seat will stay in democratic hands easily.
District 32: Senator Ruben Diaz (Vacant – 2017) (D); Safe D: Unfortunately, Senator Reverend Ruben Diaz will be around until 2017 when he runs for city council. Expect Assemblyman and Bronx Democratic Party Chairman Marcos Crespo, or Assemblyman Luis Sepulvida, to run for this seat when it becomes vacant. Other potential candidates include former Councilwoman Maria del Carmen Arroyo, Councilwoman Annabel Palma, and a bevy of district leaders and community board members.
District 33: Senator Gustavo Rivera (D); Safe D: Senator Gustavo Rivera defeated now-imprisoned ex-Majority Leader Pedro Espada in a primary several years ago. He’s been targeted stealthy by the IDC. Despite this, Rivera easily fought back against conservative democratic Councilman Fernando Cabrera in this West Bronx district with 60% of the vote. Even if Rivera were to lose, this seat will easily be held by a democrat.
District 34: Senator Jeff Klein (IDC); Safe IDC: Senator Klein represents portions of the Bronx and is the leader of the IDC. He easily beat back a primary from former Attorney General and ex-City Councilmember Oliver Koppell. Unfortunately, despite his allegiance to the Republicans (Klein ran with Republican backing in 2012), Klein is unlikely to ever lose this seat. Any of the potential candidates that live here are tied to Klein and the Bronx machine, and running against those headwinds would be extremely difficult.
District 35: Senator Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D); Safe D: Minority Leader Stewart-Cousins won this Westchester County based seat with 74% of the vote in 2014. Should democrats retake the Senate in November, she stands to become the first female Majority Leader. If Stewart-Cousins somehow loses a primary, a democrat will easily hold this seat.
District 36: Senator Ruth Hassell-Thompson (D); Safe D: Senator Ruth Hassell-Thompson ran a quixotic bid for Mayor of Mount Vernon on the WFP line in November and lost. Hassell-Thompson represents swaths of the Northeast Bronx and Westchester; she defeated her 2014 opponent with 74% of the vote. Should Hassell-Thompson decide to retire, I’m not sure who would run here. Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie lives in the district, but he won’t run for this seat.
District 37: Senator George Latimer (D); Likely D: Senator Latimer had a close call in 2014 in this 56% Obama seat where he won 52% of the vote against Joseph Dillon. Dillon likely won’t run again—he took a job with the Senate Republican Conference after his loss. Latimer should be fine this year, especially with presidential turnout. That said, out of caution, I’m keeping this at likely D.
District 38: Senator David Carlucci (IDC); Safe IDC: Senator David Carlucci, when elected, was the youngest member of the Senate. That may change this year (see my write up of Bill Larkin’s seat below), but despite this Carlucci won a commanding 69% of the vote in 2014 in this Rockland-Westchester district. He’s unlikely to face serious opposition, but if Assemblyman Ken Zebrowski were to challenge him in a primary, Carlucci would have to worry. Zebrowski is unlikely to do this though.
District 39: Senator Bill Larkin (R); Tossup: Senator Larkin is in big trouble. Larkin won this 53% Obama seat with 70% of the vote in 2014, but in 2012, he won only 52% of the vote against an underfunded candidate. This time, Larkin will likely face off against Assemblyman James Skoufis. I mentioned before that Senate Republicans are using Rovian tactics to go after their opponents and this one takes the cake: republicans have been on record calling Skoufis a “career politician.” Anyone who can look at Larkin’s Senate biography can note that Larkin was first elected during President Ford’s tenure, and that he has been in the legislature longer than Skoufis has been alive; Skoufis is about 28 years old and was the youngest member of the legislature when he was elected. If republicans are trying this against Skoufis, then they are scared. Unlike the Kaminsky case, Republicans can’t point to Skoufis’ support of Silver because Larkin supported Pedro Espaada, Dean Skelos, and Joe Bruno for Majority Leader. This is another essential race for taking back the majority.
District 40: Senator Terrence Murphy (R); Likely R: Senator Murphy isn’t nearly as crazy as his predecessor. Murphy hasn’t made too many waves and he’s facing a challenge from democrat Andrew Falk. Falk ran for Assembly twice, failing to defeat Assemblyman Steve Katz, who was convicted of marijuana possession and is now retiring to pursue a marijuana-based research and development company (no, really, this happened. There must be something in the water in this district), and recently lost a race for Patterson Town Supervisor. Maybe 4th time is the charm for Falk, but without a better candidate in this marginally Obama seat (51%), I’m leaving it at likely R.
District 41: Senator Sue Serino (R); Tossup: Senator Serino defeated Senator Terry Gipson in 2014 with 52% of the vote. This seat went for Obama in 2012 with 53% of the vote. Gipson is running again. Serino recently came under criticism for threatening a videographer with arrest during a town hall meeting. While this is a bad move, it’s probably not politically fatal. Dems really need to win these lower Hudson Valley districts if they want to win back and maintain a majority. This race is going to get very expensive and very nasty.
District 42: Senator John Bonacic (R); Likely R: Senator Bonacic ran unopposed in 2014 in this 55% Obama district. In a presidential year, he’s certainly vulnerable. Additionally, Bonacic recently angered conservatives for saying he would vote for the Reproductive Health Act. This could prompt a challenge from the right, and if it does, this seat is definitely a tossup if Bonacic loses. Assemblywoman Aileen Gunther may live here, but she’s been moving up the ranks in the Assembly and may not want to risk her job for this one. A county legislator or town supervisor in this district could probably give Bonacic a run for his money. Until a candidate emerges, I’m leaving this at Likely R, but it’s a race to watch and could be rated tossup, or lean R based on who runs against him.
District 43: Senator Kathy Marchione (R); Safe R: Senator Marchione won this seat that was, in a previous map, represented by ex-Majority Leader Joe Bruno. She defeated sitting Senator Roy McDonald, who voted in favor of same sex marriage, in 2012, and then defeated McDonald (running on the Independence Party line) and Clavarack Town Supervisor Robin Andrews in a three-way general election race. This district contains much of the Albany-Troy suburbs, and is mostly suburban and rural. Marchione won re-election easily in 2014 with 63% of the vote; though some of Marchione’s campaign contributions have come under scrutiny, no charges have been formally filed. Obama narrowly won this district in 2012 with 52% of the vote. Democrats don’t have much of a farm team in this district, though a town supervisor, much like Andrews, or a local town board member could potentially run.
District 44: Senator Neil Breslin (D); Safe D: Breslin has been a name in Albany County politics for a long time. His brother Mike served as Albany County Executive for many years, and Senator Breslin has been a senator for 20 years. While this district used to be wholly contained in Albany County, it shed the more rural parts of the county in 2012’s redistricting to take on the “river cities” of Troy and Renesselaer. While this drew a challenge from Albany County Legislature Chairman Shawn Morse, Breslin hung on, and sailed to re-election in 2014. Morse probably won’t run again, since he was elected to serve as Mayor of Cohoes in 2015. Should Breslin retire, expect a very messy primary fight from, at the very least, Assemblywoman Pat Fahy, Assemblyman John McDonald, Albany Common Council President and Party Chair Carolyn McLaughlin, Albany Council Member Judd Krasher, and any number of business and civic leaders.
District 45: Senator Betty Little (R); Safe R: Senator Little won this 56% Obama district with no general election opposition in 2014. Little was mentioned as a potential candidate for the 21st congressional district that was ultimately won by Elsie Stefanik. This sprawling district runs up the VT border to the Canadian border and then extends west towards Potsdam and takes in much of the Adirondack State Park. It’s a huge area of land and is very rural. Our bench here is also very slim. Assemblywoman Carrie Woener may live here, but she just won election for the first time in 2014. Barring scandal or a particularly well-funded, moderate democratic candidate, Little should easily win this seat again.
District 46: Senator George Amadore (R); Lean R: George Amadore wouldn’t even have a senate seat if it weren’t for Senate Republicans adding a seat to the state senate during 2012’s redistricting. Their argument was essentially we did it before, we’ll do it again. Despite this district being drawn with Amadore in mind, he managed to lose it to Cecilia Tkaczyk by a whopping 18 votes in 2012. Amadore defeated Tkaczyk in 2014 with 56% of the vote. Obama won this district with 53% of the vote in 2012—likely helping Tkaczyk win in the first place. Amadore is now facing off against Palatine Town Supervisor and labor activist Sara Niccoli. Niccolli needs to run up the margins in the Ulster County area of the district if she wants to win this race. While it’s great that she’s running, Palatine isn’t particularly large and this is a very big district in terms of square miles. I’m leaving this at lean R for now, but this is a race to keep an eye on.
District 47: Senator Joe Griffo (R); Safe R: Griffo was a potential candidate for the open 22nd congressional district, but declined to run. He ran unopposed in 2014 in this 49% Romney district. He could be challenged by Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi, but the two apparently have a good working relationship, and Brindisi, a former Utica School Board member, is largely unknown outside of the Utica-Rome area.
District 48: Senator Patty Ritchie (R); Safe R: Ritchie ran unopposed in this 51% Obama district that runs along much of the Canadian boarder. There isn’t a huge bench of candidates in this district aside from Assemblywoman Addie Russell. Russell had a close race in 2014 and is unlikely to seek a promotion, as she’s been slowly climbing up in seniority in the Assembly. Ritchie is very likely to win this district again without much competition.
District 49: Senator High Farley (R); Safe R: Farley won this marginal Obama seat with 63% of the vote in 2014. Farley has been an elected official for a long time: first elected to the Senate in 1976, he was a town councilman before that. This district is massive, with lots of parkland and rural communities, with some smaller cities throughout. Farley’s base is in Schenectady County. He could be challenged by Assemblyman Angelo Santabarbra, but taking on Farley would be political suicide for him. People will likely wait for Farley to retire before trying to put this race on the map. Until then, safe R.
District 50: Senator John DeFrancisco (R); Safe R: Senator DeFrancisco challenged John Flanagan for the Majority Leader role. While he ultimately didn’t win, he was appointed Deputy Majority Leader. He ran unopposed in this 54% Obama district in 2014. Unfortunately, this district was drawn for Senator DeFrancisco and does not have any state representatives that could win the district. Assemblyman Al Stripe may live here, but he would not be a good candidate to challenge DeFrancisco directly. It’s been rumored that DeFrancisco will retire after this term and then the seat may be moved to likely R. With DeFrancisco, it’s safe R.
District 51: Senator James Seward (R); Safe R: Seward backed Senator John Flanagan for Majority Leader, and was mentioned as a candidate for the 22nd Congressional District, he declined to run for that position. I’m sure his constituents in this rural district weren’t super happy about his backing Flanagan, but Seward is pretty non-offensive, and without a serious primary challenger, he’ll likely win re-election easily.
District 52: Senator Fred Akshar (R); Safe R: Remember that time Fred Akshar won a special election to replace convicted Senator Tom Libous by 57%? I sure do. I wrote about why this race was never winnable here. It’s still probably not winnable even though President Obama narrowly carried the district in 2012. This district is largely centered around Binghamton, and without a real bench in the district aside from Assemblywoman Donna Lupardo, this would be a really tough race. Akshar won’t win by 57% in a presidential year, but I expect him to easily hold the seat.
District 53: Senator David Valesky (IDC); Safe IDC: Dave Valesky was vulnerable for a few years in this seat. He ran unopposed in 2014 (likely as part of a non-aggression pact between the IDC and Senate Republicans). He’s been mentioned before as a challenger to Congressman John Katko, but has never seemed interested in running. Valesky does earn outside income, which, in this political climate could create some issues; however, Valesky earns his income as a church organist, and that’s not really an issue.
District 54: Senator Mike Nozzolio (R) (Retiring); Likely R: Senator Mike Nozzolio recently announced his retirement in this 49%-48% Obama seat. Nozzolio has easily held down this seat for decades; however, he's decided to retire due to health problems. Nozzolio also came under scrutiny for his outside income at a major law firm, and for his backing of downstate Senator John Flanagan as Majority Leader. While a democratic candidate has yet to emerge, it would be a tough climb for democrats to win this seat, even in a presidential year. Assemblyman and Wayne County Republican Chairman Bob Oaks seems to be the likeliest candidate for the seat. Assemblyman Gary Finch has also been mentioned as a candidate, but he’s deferred to Oaks.
Oaks is currently the ranking minority member on the Assembly Ways and Means Committee. I've always found him to be respectful, smart, and gentlemanly; I mention this because he seems like the perfect person to be primaried from the right. Even if that were to happen, as the old adage says, you can't beat someone with no one. Were the dems to recruit a strongish candidate like a county legislator, or a mayor, and Oaks were to lose the primary, I'd say this is a tossup race. Until that situation materializes, I'm keeping it at likely R.
District 55: Senator Rich Funke (R); Lean R: Rich Funke, no relation to Tobias, easily defeated Senator Ted O’Brien in this Rochester centric seat. That said, President Obama won this seat with 56% of the vote in 2012. With turnout likely to be high in the presidential year, Funke is in serious danger. County Legislator Joe Morelle Jr., son of current Assembly Majority Leader Joe Morelle, could run for this seat as he lives in the district, but he hasn’t expressed any interest in doing so (at least that I’m aware of). Given the lean of the district, I’m placing this at Lean R until a challenger emerges. If the democrats want to take back the state senate, their path doesn’t necessarily run through this district, but it would be icing on the cake.
District 56: Senator Joe Robach (R); Likely R: Senator Robach used to be a democrat back in the day, but he switched parties to run for this seat in 2002. He’s been mentioned before as potentially switching back—and gave a really squishy answer when asked a few years ago. Robach ran unopposed in 2014. President Obama won this district overwhelmingly with 60% of the vote. Whether a democrat can successfully challenge Robach, or get him to switch back, picking up this seat will be necessary in the future to obtain and maintain a majority.
District 57: Senator Cathy Young (R); Safe R: Senator Young backed Senator Flanagan for Majority Leader and was rewarded with the Chairmanship of the powerful Senate Finance Committee. She’s also the head of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee. While Young found herself in trouble for double dipping on a property tax rebate program a few years ago, she easily won this district in 2012, running unopposed. This is a 55% Romney seat along the Southern Tier. Young may get primaried for her above indiscretions, but she won’t be lacking in resources if she does.
District 58: Senator Tom O’Mara (R); Tossup: I’m rating this district as a tossup, but it’s also likely R. Senator O’Mara represented a similar western-NY/Southern Tier Assembly district prior to being elected to the senate in 2010. O’Mara would be a lock for re-election if it weren’t for several interesting developments and personal missteps. For one, O’Mara was caught on tape berating a person questioning his support on an energy pipeline that would run through the Southern Tier. O’Mara’s private law practice has also come under scrutiny, as outside income has become a hot topic in Albany. O’Mara works for Hiscock & Barclay, which represents a number of clients, including energy companies and real estate interests. This wouldn’t be so eyebrow raising except that Senator O’Mara chairs the Senate Committee on Environmental Conservation, which vets legislation that can have real effects on these industries.
On a more macro level, O’Mara represents a lot of the same turf that Congressman Tom Reed represents. Reed has quite the tough race, very unexpectedly, in 2012 when he beat back Nate Shinagawa with 52% of the vote. Reed had tax problems in the past, which could cause him issues. Whether or not the ethics of these two republicans comes into play is yet to be seen, but it certainly helps democrats running on anti-corruption platforms. O’Mara’s seat isn’t completely necessary to take the majority back, but it would certainly be a welcomed addition. I’m not sure who could run here, but a county legislator like Shinagawa could be an appealing candidate.
District 59: Senator Pat Gallivan (R); Safe R: Senator Gallivan was first elected in 2010, and prior to that, was Erie County Sheriff. This district went for Romney in 2012 with 53% of the vote. Gallivan ran unopposed in 2014, and this district isn’t particularly hospitable to democrats. If a candidate emerges, it’s still Gallivan’s race to lose.
District 60: Senator Marc Panepinto (D); Tossup: This district, which Panepinto wrestled away from now-Judge Mark Grisanti in 2014 in a three-way race, narrowly elected Panepinto with 45%-43%-12% going to each candidate. While Grisanti won’t run again in this 56% Obama district, Kevin Stocker, Panepinto’s 2014 Republican opponent is running; Erie County Clerk Chris Jacobs is considering, but considered unlikely. Panepinto may not have the primary to himself with ex-Senator and Buffalo Common Councilman Alfred Coppola considering a run, amongst other party officials in the district. Whatever happens here, there’s going to be a lot of money spent and the attacks are likely to get dirty—the GOP previously attacked Panepinto on his 2001 misdemeanor voter fraud conviction. One more interesting note here, this district is potentially only contiguous at low tide, which makes another case for fair redistricting.
District 61: Senator Mike Razenhofer (R); Safe R: Senator Razenhofer easily won this district largely because of his tireless advocacy to make yogurt the official state snack. This 50% Obama district that stretches from Rochester to Erie County (Buffalo) re-elected Razenhofer with 62% of the vote. I expect him to stick around, baring personal scandal, so long as Republicans hold the majority.
District 62: Senator Robert Ortt (R); Likely R: Senator Ortt replaced Senator George Maziarz when the Senator retired amidst an ethical cloud that still hasn’t been resolved. Ortt was challenged in the primary in 2014 by Gia Arnold, a local tea-party activist. Arnold is unlikely to be a candidate again because she’s likely going to be spending much of the next few months in a courtroom. Recently Ms. Arnold was arrested for the totally understandable and not weird at all crime of being caught with an AR-15, a handgun, a combat knife, and a black ski mask in her car. This is after she exited the race in 2014 only to re-enter after “hearing the support from her constituents.” Why did she exit? Because she admitted to cheating on her husband. I’m not going to moralize about monogamy because it’s not my place, but Ms. Arnold is likely done with electoral politics at this point. Arnold is, of course, trying to spin her recent arrest as her standing up for freedom against the SAFE Act (something that’s anathema to upstate conservatives) so maybe she’s more savvy than I’m giving her credit for. As for Ortt, he’s in a seat that slightly favored Mitt Romney by a 50%-47% margin. Ortt could be vulnerable with the right candidate, but I’m going to leave this race at likely R until a candidate emerges.
District 63: Senator Tim Kennedy (D); Safe D: Kennedy won this Buffalo-based district in 2014 with 78% of the vote. He faced a primary challenge from Betty Jean Grant in 2012 and 2014. Kennedy may be vulnerable in a primary, but he won’t lose the general unless he supports moving the Buffalo Bills to Toronto, or says Buffalo wings are disgusting.
Some takeaways from all this:
- The road to the majority runs through Long Island and the Hudson Valley (this isn’t news, but it’s worth noting for people who aren’t as familiar with NY politics).
- There are A LOT of republicans in blue seats and this is mainly due to gerrymandering.
- Not having democrats elected at the local level, especially outside of New York City, is likely hurting recruitment of candidates.
- The title of Majority Leader in the senate is basically an invitation for federal investigation.
- The IDC and the Senate Democratic Conference are going to have to put their antipathy aside for there to be a Democratic Party majority controlling the chamber.