PPP has a new poll out of North Carolina, showing Clinton leading Sanders 52-35. This 17 point lead for Clinton is down substantially from the 33 point lead (59-26) that PPP gave Clinton in North Carolina a little under a month ago. PPP is a robopollster that does not poll cell phones, and which gave Clinton a 3 point lead in its last New Hampshire poll, and had Clinton up by 8 in its last Iowa poll.
This is consistent with the preponderance of available polls, which all are tending to show a tightening race nationally, with Sanders gaining on Clinton by varying amounts pretty much everywhere. The South is Clinton's strongest region — her so-called “firewall” — so she needs big wins in the South in order to knock Sanders out of the contest, because Sanders is likely to fare significantly better in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. But in recent polls, Sanders has gained on Clinton, even in the South.
Overall Vote:
|
2/14 - 2/16 |
1/18 - 1/19 |
Sanders |
35% (+9% |
26% |
Clinton |
52% (-7%) |
59% |
Vote by Race:
By Race, PPP finds Sanders picking up support with both White voters and with African American voters. But he goes up a bit more with African Americans. Clinton maintains a large lead with African Americans, but it is clearly smaller than it was a month ago.
|
White |
African American |
Sanders |
42% (+9%) |
24% (+12%) |
Clinton |
43% (-6%) |
64 (-13%) |
General Election Matchups:
Sanders does better against Republicans than Clinton in General Election matchups against Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush, further strengthening the argument that Sanders is the most electable Democrat to beat the GOP in November, and is most able to compete in a GOP-leaning swing state like North Carolina.
Against Trump:
Sanders 44 — Trump 42 → Dems ahead by 2
Clinton 43 — Trump 44 → GOP ahead by 1
Against Cruz:
Sanders 43 — Cruz 43 → Tie
Clinton 43 — Cruz 46 → GOP ahead by 3
Against Rubio:
Sanders 41 — Rubio 45 → GOP ahead by 4
Clinton 40 — Rubio 49 → GOP ahead by 9
Against Bush:
Sanders 43 — Bush 42 → Dems ahead by 1
Clinton 42 — Bush 44 → GOP ahead by 2