PPP polling in 10 of the 12 early primary states found Hillary ahead solidly in most states and her lead among African American voters is massive.
Some thoughts and highlights below.
www.publicpolicypolling.com/…
New Public Policy Polling surveys of the 12 states that will hold Democratic primaries for President between March 1st and 8th, conducted on behalf of American Family Voices, find Hillary Clinton leading the way in 10 of 12, with double digit leads in 9 of them. Bernie Sanders has an overwhelming lead in his home state of Vermont and also leads in Massachusetts. The race is close in Oklahoma where Clinton is ahead by just 2 points, but she has double digit leads in the other 9 states that will have primaries that week:
African American support, just like in South Carolina polls, is huge for Clinton. In nine of the states, the average lead is a whopping +52.9 in the chart below.
Yesterday’s NBC/SM national polling showed an overall 73% - 16% lead for Clinton among African American voters, which closely mirrors these results.
African millennial support favors Clinton 64% - 25% in the same NBC/SM poll.
Clinton is benefiting in these states from overwhelming African American support. She leads by anywhere from 40-62 points among black voters in the nine of these states that have more black voters than the national average. Her support ranges from 63-74% with black voters in those states, while Sanders gets 12-23%:
I thought these results were very interesting.
It depends on what state you live in whether the Sanders message resonates strongly, as in many states Clinton is leading on the economy and Wall Street.
The revolution isn't playing strongly everywhere. How about that, folks?
Sanders does better on the issues of who voters trust most to crack down on Wall Street and who they have more faith in to pursue policies that raise the incomes of average Americans. Voters trust Sanders more to crack down on Wall Street in 5 of the 12 states we polled and in the states where Clinton is trusted more on that question it’s by a much more narrow margin than her overall lead. Sanders is trusted more to pursue policies that will raise the wealth of average Americans in 4 of the 12 states, and again in the states where Clinton still has an advantage on that question it’s much more close than the overall horse race:
In regards to leadership, race, immigration and women, Sanders leads in these metrics in only one state, his home state of Vermont. Clinton leads everywhere else.
Definite advantage for Clinton.
One issue that’s playing to Clinton’s particular advantage is who people trust most to be Commander in Chief. She has at least a 31 point advantage over Sanders on that front in every state other than Vermont. Other issues she does particularly well on are women’s issues where she has at least a 36 point advantage in every state other than Vermont and improving race relations where she likewise has a double digit advantage everywhere other than Senator Sanders’ home state:
What does this all mean? Realistically, without significant African American support it will be nearly impossible to win the nomination and the revolution really hasn't taken hold solidly enough to be a factor in many of these states.
As the demos in the upcoming states become more reflective of the Democratic party’s diversity, the harder it gets for Sanders and the easier it gets for Clinton.
It’s still a very tough climb for Mr. Sanders.