We have gotten a couple of days of general election polls out, and I think A pie fight is about to explode about the meaning of these polls. To me, Knowing how fast stuff can change…… It means nothing,
We live in a political and everyday world, where events are constantly Changing, as Saturday’s breaking news showed all of us. Having Poll highs and lows only will make Hillary and Uncle Bernie supporters a nervous wreck by convention time.
Both sides need to take these latest g.e. polls with a grain of salt and some Mrs. Dash as well
1980[2]
Month |
Ronald Reagan (R) % |
Jimmy Carter (D) % |
John B. Anderson (I) % |
December 1979/January 1980 |
33% |
62% |
|
February/March |
31% |
60% |
|
33% |
58% |
|
34% |
40% |
21% |
April/May |
34% |
41% |
18% |
32% |
38% |
21% |
32% |
40% |
21% |
June/July |
32% |
39% |
21% |
33% |
35% |
24% |
37% |
32% |
22% |
37% |
34% |
21% |
August/September |
45% |
29% |
14% |
38% |
39% |
13% |
39% |
39% |
14% |
October/November |
44% |
40% |
9% |
45% |
39% |
9% |
47% |
44% |
8% |
Actual result |
51% |
41% |
7% |
Difference between actual result and final poll |
+4% |
-3% |
-1% |
Incumbent President Jimmy Carter initially had a huge lead in the polls, due to the rally-around-the flag effect of the Iranian hostage crisis and the perceived extremism of Reagan. The continuing hostage crisis and the poor economy hurt Carter, and the prospect John B. Anderson running as an independent appealed to around 20% of Americans who saw Carter as a lesser evil to Reagan. As a result, Anderson took a third of Carter's support in the spring, but did not seem to hurt Reagan, despite Anderson being a Republican. Carter would never recover this loss of support, while Reagan would end up peeling around two-thirds of initial Anderson voters. This race remained close until near the end, when Reagan asked Americans if they were better off than they were four years ago. Afterwards Reagan managed to win a huge landslide victory in the general election.[15]
1988[2]
Month |
George H. W. Bush (R) % |
Michael Dukakis (D) % |
March |
52% |
40% |
April |
45% |
43% |
May |
38% |
54% |
June |
38% |
52% |
41% |
46% |
July |
41% |
47% |
37% |
54% |
August |
42% |
49% |
September |
49% |
41% |
47% |
42% |
October |
50% |
40% |
November |
56% |
44% |
Actual result |
53% |
46% |
Difference between actual result and final poll |
-3% |
+2% |
Initially Democrat Michael Dukakis was able to open a huge lead in the polls. However, Vice President Bush's campaign successfully portrayed Dukakis as soft on crime and also used the good economy, Reagan's popularity, and his no new taxes pledge to close the gap with Dukakis in the polls and eventually open up a huge lead over Dukakis. Bush ended up winning the general election by a landslide.[17]
1992[2]
Month |
Bill Clinton (D) % |
George H. W. Bush (R) % |
Ross Perot (I) % |
March |
25% |
44% |
24% |
April |
26% |
41% |
25% |
May |
29% |
35% |
30% |
25% |
35% |
35% |
June |
25% |
31% |
39% |
24% |
32% |
34% |
27% |
33% |
32% |
July |
40% |
48% |
|
56% |
34% |
|
56% |
36% |
|
57% |
32% |
|
August |
56% |
37% |
|
50% |
39% |
|
52% |
42% |
|
September |
54% |
39% |
|
51% |
42% |
|
50% |
40% |
|
54% |
38% |
|
51% |
35% |
8% |
October |
47% |
35% |
10% |
50% |
34% |
9% |
51% |
33% |
10% |
46% |
34% |
13% |
47% |
34% |
14% |
47% |
29% |
15% |
44% |
32% |
17% |
41% |
30% |
20% |
42% |
31% |
19% |
40% |
38% |
16% |
41% |
40% |
14% |
43% |
36% |
15% |
November |
49% |
37% |
14% |
Actual result |
43% |
37% |
19% |
Difference between actual result and final poll |
-6% |
0% |
+5% |
In the spring and early summer, the polls fluctuated with incumbent President Bush and Reform challenger Ross Perot trading the lead in the polls. However, Perot withdrew from the race in July and Clinton was able to open up a consistent lead in the polls from July onward by blaming Bush for the poor economy and promising that he'll fix it (the economy, stupid). Perot returned to the race in September but was never able to recapture all his previous support and Clinton ended up winning the general election by a comfortable margin.[18]
Month |
Barack Obama (D) % |
John McCain (R) % |
March |
46% |
44% |
43% |
47% |
April |
46% |
43% |
45% |
45% |
May |
42% |
48% |
47% |
43% |
44% |
47% |
June |
48% |
41% |
45% |
45% |
July |
48% |
42% |
45% |
44% |
49% |
40% |
44% |
44% |
August |
48% |
42% |
45% |
45% |
50% |
42% |
September |
44% |
49% |
50% |
44% |
46% |
46% |
October |
52% |
41% |
49% |
43% |
52% |
42% |
53% |
40% |
53% |
42% |
Actual result |
53% |
46% |
Difference between actual result and final poll |
0% |
+4% |
The campaign was close throughout the spring and summer, with Obama and McCain both trading leads. The U.S. economy went into a recession in December 2007,[23] but initially Obama was hurt in the polls due to weak support from Hillary Clinton supporters.[24] The Republicans also attacked Obama for being inexperienced,[25] and McCain got a temporary bump in the polls after he picked Sarah Palin to be his Vice Presidential nominee. However, the financial crisis (which started in mid-September 2008) and doubts about Palin's qualifications to be President[26] allowed Obama to open up a consistent and comfortable lead in the polls in the beginning of October. Obama won the general election by a comfortable margin.[2]
march 1980, carter was destroying Reagan
July 1988, Rocky J squirrel up there had a 17 point lead on Papa Bush
March 1992, Bush Looked well on his way to re-election
May and September of 2008, it looked like a Maverick win.
I will try to keep my inner Donald Trump in check when it come to general election polls, and I hope others do as well. As far as democratic primary polls…….