Fun with delegate math!
I’ve done some rough pledged delegate calculations for the states, through 15 March. Using current data taken from FiveThirtyEight.com I project a Clinton lead in pledged delegates of 1170-861 by that date. Follow me below the fold for assumptions and caveats and a bit of breakdown…
I make the following assumptions, all of which will introduce errors and uncertainty, but I think they will tend to cancel each other out rather than all go in one direction:
1) Treating all caucus states as if they were primaries rather than worrying about multi-level caucus/convention systems.
2) Using, in order of availability, for any given state or territory: 538.com’s polls-only forecast; 538.com’s state polling average; 538.com’s projections based on the national polling average, demographics, fundraising and Facebook data; and 538.com’s national polling average. All figures as of 1100 GMT today.
3) Assuming a uniform percentage for each candidate in every congressional district.
4) Assuming that the undecideds/others will break for the two candidates in the same proportion as the decideds.
It’s a small sample so far, but my spreadsheet correctly calculates the actual delegate results for Iowa and New Hampshire using both 538.com’s final projections and the actual vote results, despite the caveats/assumptions above. The projected figures are close to but slightly more favourable to Hillary than the detailed state delegate math analyses that have been diaried by Torilahure.
Results are: (Clinton-Sanders split)
NV: 19-16 (would be reversed with a narrow to modest Sanders win).
SC: 32-21
Super Tuesday: 499-379
After the 15 March primaries the cumulative pledged delegate count would be 1170-861.
Disclaimer: I’m a mild Hillary supporter (already voted, in fact), but would energetically support Bernie in the general. I don’t normally get engaged in primary battles, or contribute to candidates – rather save my $$$ for marginal down-ballot races, ballot measures etc where there is more bang for the buck. I voted for Barry Commoner on the Peace and Freedom ticket in 1980 – my first election – after voting for John Anderson in the Republican primary, but since then I’ve voted Dem all the way.