I want to expand on my post from last night and offer my take that this virtual tie actually translates to two political wins and was a good thing for both candidates. A virtual tie keeps Sanders’s hopes alive and Hillary avoids going 0-2.
I’m an undecided voter from Virginia, so I have a few weeks to make up my mind. I will be watching both candidates and both campaigns very closely. Especially in SC and NV.
I think Bernie absolutely must exceed 40% and probably 45% in both SC and NV to keep this interesting going into March 1. If he manages to win one of those states, it’s game on.
But the problem Bernie has is a strategic one — How does he shift his campaign to pick up more support from folks who are older than 40, not white, and not super liberal. He’s got that demographic locked down, but where does he grow? I’m having a hard time seeing his current message appeal more broadly, and I’m having a hard time seeing how he shifts his message to broaden his support. I’ll be looking to see how he manages this strategic challenge over the next couple of weeks.
Hillary’s problem is the opposite. She has broad appeal among most Democratic constituents, but appears to have an acute problem with younger voters. She’ll need more of them if she wants to break away from Bernie and secure the nomination more quickly.
What she does have, however, is room to move. I think she could make minor pivot on a few issues to eat into Bernie’s base — probably not win younger voters, but pick up more support from them while not alienating her broad base of support from older voters.
To that end, I think there is room to secure some of the O’Malley support by making clean energy and climate action a bigger part of her message. That issue resonates with young voters, and there is room on Bernie’s left on it. Why not pick up O’Malley’s goal of 100% renewables by 2050 to make America the innovative clean energy super power of the 21st century? I also think there is room for that message to fit within a framework of putting millions to work by launching the Greatest Public Works Program of the 21st century — paid for with an escalating carbon tax. Why not? It’s right in line with her persona and gives her ground on which to challenge Bernie from the left.
If she does that and if she more vocally embraces Elizabeth Warren’s message: “I agree with Elizabeth Warren — we need to enforce the laws and go after the crooks on Wall Street who are cutting corners and putting hard working families at risk. We’re not just going to slap on fines, we’re going to slap on handcuffs.”
Those two pivots I think seal the deal on this nomination for Hillary. Just not sure where Bernie would go to get votes to expand his appeal in the face of these pivots from Hillary.
Final point — Hillary may not want or see the need to make pivots like these. She may calculate that she risks more general election damage by pivoting too far left. I personally think playing it safe would be a mistake for her, but Hillary is a very cautious, pragmatic person and she may just think the risks are too great to shift too far.
We’ll see.