No spin here, just math. I support Hillary, but if you GUARANTEED me a Sanders win, I’d be fine with that. OK, so now the math.
Over the course of his presidency, Gallup has tracked President Obama’s approval rating, as they have for many presidents. His approval has topped out in 2009 at 65%, bottomed at 39% in 2011.
What has not fluctuated as wildly is the public’s opinion of Obama’s ideology. Basically, 40% of the electorate have consistently believed President Obama is more ‘liberal’ than them. 40% believe his ideology is fine [whether they are conservative, moderate or liberal is not important—they don’t consider HIM too liberal]. And 20% of the electorate don’t believe Obama is liberal enough.
So, 80% of the electorate doesn’t consider President Obama to be too liberal, and with those numbers he won 55% and 53% victories in 2008 and 2012.
The fact that his overall approval fluctuates, while the electorate’s does not, is important: when Obama makes peace with Iran he expands his approval with the 20%, when he pushes the TPP the 20% weigh his approval down. Got that?
The 20% are Bernie Sanders’ core supporters. Potentially, 80% of the total electorate will see him as more liberal than themselves. Hillary’s ideological affiliations are much more closely aligned with President Obama’s—although this campaign may have raised the 20% to 25%, but because she is facing an opponents so far to the left, she probably will pick up some of the 40% who believe Obama is too liberal.
So, Obama had 80% of the electorate who either agreed with his ideology or had no other candidate to vote for, as would Hillary Clinton. Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, would have to pry away 30% of the electorate who believe he is to the left of them, in order to win.
The GOP candidate starts with 40% of the electorate who don’t think he’s too liberal for them. They only have to peel away the most conservative ¼ of the middle 40% to beat Bernie Sanders.
And that is a much easier lift than beating Hillary Clinton.