My esteemed fellow Kosite, dhonig wrote this straight-down-the-middle diary highlighting why primary polls are far better at judging general election outcomes than general election polls. His rationale is that Democrats need to bring out the base before they can win any general election, not to mention that Secretary Clinton is leading in these polls for states that don’t vote for weeks or months. *cough* cherry pick *cough* Sorry, got that cold that’s going around.
It’s important to remember we have yet to see Senator Sanders make up huge gaps in polling in relatively short periods of time.
Now of course we all remember in 2008 how then Senator Obama lost NH, MA, NY, NJ, RI, PA, OH, IN, FL, MI, NM, NV and CA in the Primaries and then went on to lose each and every one of those states in the General to President McCain by an electoral vote margin of 535 (Thank God for the District of Columbia huh?) As we all know in the primary if you vote for a candidate and that candidate doesn’t win you will never vote for them in the general election, that’s just the way it is.
Ok, enough snark. Here are some numbers. (My apologies for how hard to read it is. the formatting differences between what you type and what actually show up are maddening)
Click here for a much more readable image.
National General Election Polls ---------------------------------
February 18
Trump -----— vs. Clinton (Clinton +5) FOX News
vs. Sanders (Sanders +15) FOX News
vs. Clinton (Clinton +1) Quinnipiac vs. Sanders (Sanders +6) Quinnipiac
Cruz ----- vs. Clinton (Cruz +1) FOX News vs. Clinton (Cruz +3) Quinnipiac
vs. Sanders (Sanders +10) Quinnipiac
Rubio ------ vs. Clinton (Rubio +4) FOX News vs. Clinton (Rubio +7) Quinnipiac
vs. Sanders (Sanders +6) Quinnipiac
Bush ------ vs. Clinton (Bush +1) FOX News vs. Clinton (Bush +1) Quinnipiac
vs. Sanders (Sanders +10) Quinnipiac
Kasich ------- vs. Clinton (Kasich +3) FOX News vs. Clinton (Kasich +8) Quinnipiac
vs. Sanders (Sanders +4) Quinnipiac
------------------------------------------------
February 17
Trump ------- vs. Clinton (Trump +2) USA Today/Suffolk
vs. Sanders (Trump +1) USA Today/Suffolk
Cruz ----- vs. Clinton (Cruz +1) USA Today/Suffolk
vs. Sanders (Sanders +2) USA Today/Suffolk
Rubio ------ vs. Clinton (Rubio +6) USA Today/Suffolk
vs. Sanders (Rubio +4) USA Today/Suffolk
Kasich ------ vs. Clinton (Kasich +11) vs. Sanders (Kasich +3)
---------------------------------------------- State General Election Polls
Ohio
Trump ------- vs. Clinton (Trump +2) Quinnipac
vs. Sanders (Tie) Quinnipac
Cruz ----- vs. Clinton (Cruz +3) Quinnipac
vs. Sanders (Sanders +2) Quinnipac
Rubio ------- vs. Clinton (Rubio +5) Quinnipac
vs. Sanders (Rubio +2) Quinnipac
Kasich ------- vs. Clinton (Kasich +17) Quinnipac
vs. Sanders (Kasich +19) Quinnipac
North Carolina
Trump ------- vs. Clinton (Trump +2) SurveyUSA vs. Sanders (Tie) SurveyUSA vs. Clinton (Clinton +6) Elon University
vs. Sanders (Sanders +8) Elon University
Cruz ----- vs. Clinton (Cruz +5) SurveyUSA vs. Sanders (Sanders +4) SurveyUSA vs. Clinton (Tie) Elon University
vs. Sanders (Sanders +4) Elon University
Rubio ------ vs. Clinton (Rubio +7) SurveyUSA vs. Sanders (Sanders +1) SurveyUSA vs. Clinton (Rubio +3) Elon University
vs. Sanders (Rubio +3) Elon University
Source: www.realclearpolitics.com/...
Anyone else see a pattern? In EVERY. SINGLE. General Election matchup save 2 Senator Sanders is outperforming Secretary Clinton. The two exceptions are Kasich, a guy who has as much a chance of winning the Republican Nomination as I do, leads Sanders by 2 points more than Clinton in Ohio and an even matchup vs. Rubio in North Carolina. Would anyone else like the Democratic nominee to have a shot in North Carolina? Thought so.
dhonig: Folks, match-up polls during primaries tell us less than nothing. A Ted Cruz partisan, when asked about a Sanders v. Trump match-up, is going to say “Sanders,” even though there’s no way on Dog’s Green Earth that he’ll ever vote for Sanders. Why? Because it reinforces Cruz’s strength. There are just too many variable in these early match-ups to mean anything, which is why they never have. First you have no basis for that statement other than it being pulled out of your nether regions, secondly as I’ve demonstrated ACTUAL VOTES in primary states don’t mean jack. If I had to choose polling only Democrats or the WHOLE electorate the choice is clear.