Most elections are primarily about the future, so it can useful to discuss what concrete results we could reasonably expect to see in a Clinton presidency when compared to a Sanders presidency.
As with all predictions, these are just opinions, but I hope we can respectfully discuss likely scenarios & our own expectations given all the constraints we see in the real world (e.g., Congress, Donors, etc.).
Both Hillary & Bernie are Progressives, but...
I think it’s no secret that Hillary has generally positioned herself as the pragmatic progressive in this race while Bernie is running to her left as a somewhat revolutionary progressive. It’s helpful to look at their positions in 3 broad categories:
|
HILLARY |
BERNIE |
HILLARY vs. BERNIE
SOCIAL ISSUES |
Progressive |
Progressive |
Economic, Justice, Health issues |
Centrist |
Progressive |
Foreign Policy, National Security Issues |
Center-Right |
Center-Left |
Social Issues
IMO, both Hillary and Bernie are quite progressive on most social issues and the differences between them are relatively minor. In this category, I would include defending women/minority/LGBT/labor/immigrant rights, reclassification of marijuana, addressing climate change, gun background checks, pro-choice Supreme Court, etc. Hillary is tougher on gun control but will likely be resisted by Republicans in Congress, so their impact will be similar.
Economics, Justice, Health Issues
This is where the differences between a Hillary & Bernie presidency start to emerge.
Here, I believe the Hillary is right to position herself as the heir to Presidents Obama & Bill Clinton while Bernie is right to position himself as the revolutionary:
LEADERSHIP TEAM / CABINET:
ECONOMY, WALL STREET/CORPORATIONS, BAILOUTS:
- Hillary can be expected to continue Obama’s (and Bill’s) posture on the economy as well as towards Wall Street regulation and corporations in general (e.g., regulate but reach settlements instead of criminal prosecution or forcing them to breakup). It’s essentially a ‘don’t rock the boat’ style of governance, probably rooted in the notion that corporations are the primary job creators so corporate confidence is necessary to keep the economy growing; plus corporate political donations are necessary for Democrats to compete against Republicans. In the next financial crisis, she can be expected to follow the Paulson/Geithner template to bailout the TBTF banks. Absent a major crash or an overwhelming Democratic win in Congress, most initiatives will be blocked by Congress and can be expected to deliver similar economic results as Obama.
- Bernie can be expected to appoint tough Wall Street regulators to the Justice department and the relevant agencies (Elizabeth Warren / Bill Black / Preet Bharara types) and will push at least a few TBTF banks to break up to avoid criminal indictments (ala Arthur Anderson). This will likely reduce the need for a bailout in the event of a crash, but if some bailouts are needed, he will likely follow the Continental Illinois model of temporary nationalization rather than bailing out shareholders. His governance model is essentially to clean up capitalism, with government acting as a fair cop rather than the current situation where the foxes are guarding the henhouse. Absent a major crash or an overwhelming Democratic win in Congress, most initiatives will be blocked by Congress and he, too, can be expected to deliver similar economic results as Obama.
TAXES:
- As a proponent of lower taxes, Hillary can be expected to find common ground with Republicans on a handful of middle class and donor-friendly tax cuts & trade deals (e.g., modified TPP, profit repatriation tax cut, tuition tax credit, etc.). She will also probably be pushed by big donors to again try for a Grand Bargain.
- As an opponent of corporate tax cuts, Bernie can be expected to bargain harder than Hillary for a living wage, free college tuition and/or limited Medicare expansion in exchange for some corporate-friendly tax cuts (e.g., profit repatriation tax cut). Social Security cuts, like those in a Grand Bargain, will be off the table.
HEALTHCARE:
- Both Hillary & Bernie can be expected to veto efforts to kill Obamacare. Absent an overwhelming Democratic win in Congress, both will be able to deliver only minor changes, albeit with significant rhetorical differences.
JUSTICE:
- Aside from the difference in regulating corporations & white collar crime mentioned above, both Hillary & Bernie can be expected to be a bit more aggressive than Obama on investigating discrimination & police shootings in the criminal justice system.
Foreign Policy, National Security Issues
This is another area where the differences between a Hillary & Bernie presidency could be significant.
- Based on her support for the war in Iraq, Libya, ISIS, Ukraine, and Iran, I would expect Hillary to continue to push militarily, resulting in a somewhat more interventionist foreign policy than President Obama. I fully expect to see a dramatic expansion in the use of the Air Force & Special Forces resulting in a much larger US involvement in the war against ISIS & maybe in Ukraine. Depending on the level of concern in Israel, there’s a slight chance that she might try to dismantle the Iran deal & resume a more hostile posture against Iran. The NSA will probably continue to have a free hand in a Clinton presidency.
- Sanders is less clear on foreign policy but based on his opposition to the Iraq war & several other recent wars, plus his clear preference for diplomacy & coalitions, he will probably be a tiny bit less hawkish than Obama. However, there is no indication whatsoever that he will take on the MIC (except maybe the NSA) at this time, so the net effect will be to go along with NATO allies & maintain most of Obama’s military positions (unless Corbyn becomes Prime Minister of UK). He will occasionally succeed in restraining the neocons/centrists/hawks (somewhat analogous to President Obama’s hesitation to use military force in Libya). Unless there’s a significant military or terrorist attack on US soil, his main focus will likely be on the domestic front.
SUMMARY
|
Hillary |
Bernie |
|
HILLARY vs. BERNIE PREDICTIONS
social issues |
PROGRESSIVE
Incremental results through Executive actions/enforcement, Supreme Court appointments, Budget deals
|
PROGRESSIVE
Incremental results through Executive actions/enforcement, Supreme Court appointments, Budget deals
|
90% Similar |
economics, justice, health ISSUES |
CENTRIST
Continues Obama policy on Wall Street with symbolic enforcement & rhetoric
Maintains jobs/income trajectory of Obama admin (major initiatives blocked by Repubs)
Defends Obamacare, maybe small improvements, with rhetoric to expand Obamacare
Min wage approaches $12
Small increase in college aid & infrastructure/clean energy spending
Talks of Grand Bargain but won’t pass
Signs TPP with changes
Similar bank bailouts in next crash
|
PROGRESSIVE
Cleans up Wall Street with several bankers prosecuted & some banks pushed to breakup
Maintains jobs/income trajectory of Obama admin (major initiatives blocked by Repubs)
Defends Obamacare, maybe small improvements, with rhetoric on Medicare for All
Min wage approaches $15
Small increase in college aid & infrastructure/clean energy spending, plus rhetoric on free tuition & income equality.
Talks of modern Glass Steagle & campaign finance reform but won’t pass
Vetoes TPP
Fewer bailouts in next crash with temporary nationalization
|
70% Similar
(Difference: Wall Street Cleanup)
|
foreign policy, military ISSUES |
CENTER-RIGHT
Slightly more interventionist than Obama, less than Cruz/Trump. MIC expands. |
CENTER-LEFT
Slightly less hawkish than Obama, but won’t try to fight the MIC, except maybe NSA. |
70% Similar
(Difference: war vs. ISIS)
|
As I summarize my thoughts, it seems that the concrete results from both candidates will probably be quite similar (given an uncooperative Republican Congress), although their teams, rhetoric, and approaches will be dramatically different.
The main differences in their results will likely be in the areas they will focus and use their Executive power. Hillary will probably go easier on corporations & will focus on foreign policy (e.g., war vs. ISIS) while Bernie will probably focus more on regulating & cleaning up corporate crime/corruption (e.g., prosecute Wall Street & breakup TBTF).
However, if/when Democrats win overwhelmingly in Congress, the differences become much more significant.
What do you think?
I invite Hillary supporters/staff to put forth your best vision of her presidency, particularly in areas where she differs from Bernie & can make a real impact without being blocked by Congress/courts.
And I invite Bernie supporters/staff to put forth your best vision of his presidency, particularly in areas where he differs from Hillary & can make a real impact without being blocked by Congress/courts.
May I please request that everyone post comments only to support their favorite candidate rather than attacking the opponent. Plenty of other diaries for pie fights.