I mean no offense to Bernie supporters. This is not a post to piss anyone off. I sincerely believe Bernie has been a really important voice in this campaign and I applaud his fresh take on our political system. And I’m thrilled that young voters are engaged in his campaign and hope they’ll stick with the Dems through November.
But after watching how the campaign has unfolded over the last few months, I have become convinced that Bernie simply cannot win a general election race, especially not if the GOP comes to its senses and rejects Trump. And for that reason, I am morally bound to support Hillary, who I think has a much better chance to keep the White House in Democratic hands, which is far more important than any of the differences we’ve seen in the Democratic primary.
From the beginning, I’ve have seen Hillary as the default Democratic candidate. Out of any other potential candidate (other than Biden), she is the one whose political views are most closely aligned with Obama’s. I think Obama would win a third term. And I think Hillary is therefore closest to the platform and kind of approach that has the best chance when the general election comes.
I have also been impressed to watch Hillary evolve over the years (as has the country) and am please she is running to the left of 08 and 12 Obama on many important issues facing the country today. So, when the dust settles on a tough primary fight, I think most folks will have the chance to see this as the natural progression of a third Obama term, one most of us should feel very good about.
In short, Hillary is as close to a generic Democratic candidate as we have — and I think a generic Democrat should beat a generic Republican for president, at least until the GOP figures out its demographic mess.
For better or worse, to me, Bernie entered this campaign with the burden of proof — he had to convince me that he was more likely to win than Hillary. He has not done so.
I have considered several important factors in my assessment:
1) How will America respond to a Democratic Socialist running for president? This is a question I’ve been thinking a lot about, and I have concluded that America is not ready for a Socialist/Democratic Socialist as president. It’s one thing for Bernie to run as a lifelong Democratic Socialist in a Democratic primary where a little more than half of us have a generally positive view of Socialism. However, polls suggest that only about 33% of the overall American public has a positive view of Socialism. And that view grows much more negative as you look at older voters, and is really negative with voters 65 and older. I am very concerned that these numbers won’t get any better when the GOP and all their Super PACs dump at least $1 billion in advertising defining Bernie as a “Communist/Socialist” sympathizer. And I have not heard one compelling argument why I’m wrong in having this concern.
2) Similarly, I don’t think Bernie has any way of overcoming the onslaught of negative campaigning that will be waged against him. His entire political career will be on the record in ways we can’t even begin to fathom. If you think this Democratic primary fight has been tough, you haven’t seen anything yet. And I think there is a much better chance he comes out of a general election as a punchline rather than president. Look at what they’ve done to Hillary on Benghazi and the email server “scandals.” Once they train their lenses on Bernie, it’s going to be far worse. Especially if he sticks with his commitment to not running negative ads. Hillary on the other hand is a known commodity. Love or hate her, we all know what we’re getting. There is probably not a single figure in American politics who has weathered more attacks than Hillary over the years. There may not be a single political figure in U.S. history who has suffered as many attacks. What are they going to do to her that they haven’t already done? She’s way more ready for the kind of street fight we’re about to see.
3) Partly because of points #1 and #2, I have a really hard time seeing how Bernie wins states like Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and even states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and financial states like New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Connecticut. Even if you put those last four states in his column based on their overwhelming Democratic leans, that only gets us to about 227 Electoral Votes. At the same time, I think Hillary is far more likely to carry all of those states when the general election rolls around, even if she has trouble turning out some younger voters. Her support is broader than Bernie’s, even though Bernie’s is way deeper when it comes to younger voters. And I think that’s a big difference in these important battleground states, which are older states demographically and more politically centrist.
4) I am becoming more convinced that even if he wins the nomination, Bernie would come out of a tough, hard primary fight having offended the entire Democratic establishment. And I think elected Democratic leaders throughout the country will have very little interest or passion in helping Bernie through a savage general election fight. I don’t care how much you hate the establishment, this will be a major problem, and one that could sink Democrats across the country in a wave election unlike anything we’ve ever seen. Yes, Hillary will have fences to mend with the Bernie supporters. Some of whom will vote Green Party or stay home. But I think the vast majority of Bernie supporters will come home. I’m not sure I can say the same about establishment/mainstream Democrats getting excited about Bernie. It’s not an accident that he has so few endorsements from elected leaders while Hillary has so many. Bernie is not Obama in this way, and that’s going to matter in November.
5) Now the wildcard: Michael Bloomberg is likely to run as an independent candidate if Bernie is the Democratic nominee. If that happens, I think you can take PA, FL, and probably OH and WI off the Bernie list, and you can almost certainly add NY, NJ, DE, and CT onto the not going to happen list. This is a very serious threat that could splinter the Democratic Party in the general election and hand the White House to a Cruz or Rubio or even a Bush. Trump as a general election candidate is also a wildcard and I have a harder time projecting his vote in the general.
At the end of the day, I understand Hillary’s flaws. I understand (though don’t personally feel) the intense hatred of her and her political persona from Bernie enthusiasts. I wish she could run a cleaner, more optimistic, inspiring campaign — because her record is really a strong record that we should all celebrate as Democrats. Not perfect. Not without mistakes. But really solid overall.
She is still the Democrat who is most generic, least risky, and most likely to win in November. She has broad support through the party, not just concentrated in younger voters. I think her candidacy pops the Bloomberg balloon and drives home the Democratic vote. And I think she will bring home all the Obama states in November, especially if she unifies the base and excites younger voters by embracing Bernie, Warren, and picking a young VP candidate who has energy and gives a fresh face to the ticket.
So, I’m with Hillary and will vote that way on March 1st in the VA primary.