So, here’s the deal. I ran some scenarios on a spreadsheet. Simplified, percentage of state vote equals percentage of pledged delegates won. For the caucuses, yeah, I know, but for this exercise we’ll assume however they allocate delegates will result in something similar to a primary. Right now, Clinton has a 26 delegate lead, so we’ll use that as the benchmark.
First, number of delegates up for grabs: 859.
I’ve got three outcomes: low Clinton result (Bernie does well), medium Clinton result, and a high Clinton result (Bernie gets stomped).
Just to be clear, in all scenarios I have Bernie taking all 16 delegates from Vermont to maximize his numbers. In the event of a tie, and there’s an uneven number of delegates, I give the extra to Sanders.
So, low Clinton:
Loses Vermont, Colorado (40-60), Massachusetts (48-52), Minnesota (40-60), Oklahoma (45-55). Wins Alabama (60-40), Arkansas (55-45), Georgia (60-40), Tennessee (57-43), Texas (60-40), Virginia (52-48).
Result: Clinton lead +64 in delegates
Medium Clinton
Loses Vermont, Colorado (45-55), Oklahoma (48-52). Ties Massachusetts, Minnesota. Wins Alabama (65-35), Arkansas (60-40), Georgia (65-35), Tennessee (60-40), Texas (65-35), Virginia (55-35)
Result: Clinton lead +139 in delegates
Clinton goes kaiju on Sanders:
Loses Vermont. Ties Colorado and Oklahoma. Wins Alabama (70-30), Arkansas (70-30), Georgia (75-25), Massachusetts (55-45), Minnesota (55-45), Tennessee (65-35), Texas (70-30), Virgina (60-40).
Result: Clinton Lead +237 in delegates
So, prediction hmmm….okay...Clinton ends the day up between...+140 to +180.
Request: no politicking, no promoting, no policy argument, no references to Wall Street, unicorns and rainbows, emails, how many states are left, low information voters, high information voters, young, old, race, religion, rox, sux, or what colour their state is filled in with on an election map. Just a straight prediction in terms of net difference in delegates at the end of the day.