Working with ballotpedia, we’ve been evaluating the rate at which Democrats are filing to run for office around the United States.
On March 8, the filing deadline passed for New Mexico. Tomorrow will be the last day to file for office in California, Georgia, Idaho. The results.. well, they aren’t good.
- On March 8, there was a state legislative filing deadline in New Mexico. It was the 12th state leg filing deadline of the year (there are 32 left to go). In the New Mexico state Senate, there are 24 Democratic incumbents and 18 Republican incumbents. Six incumbents are facing primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There are no primary challenges taking place in the Republican primary. In the state House, there are 33 Democratic incumbents and 37 Republican incumbents. Six state representatives are facing primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There are no primary challenges taking place in the Republican primary. With these new figures from New Mexico, year-to-date in all the state leg that have had filing deadlines, what we have is an overall picture of 20.0% of Democratic incumbents and 18.3% of GOP incumbents facing primary opposition.
- Additionally, with 12 filing deadlines under our belts, the cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates will face no major party opposition in November in these states stands at 49.3%. This compares to 32.7% in 2010, 38.3% in 2012 and 43.0% in 2014.
2016 is shaping out to be the year where the hope of a revolution runs into a brick wall; not because of interest or excitement.. but because people heading to the ballot box are likely to have no options on available to them but vote for the incumbent. Nearly 50% of state races so far will go unchallenged.
I took time to speak to former candidates, party leadership, and others about what is happening — and the answer isn’t surprising.
After 2014, state Democratic parties understood the problem:
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/depressed-by-rotten-results-florida-democrats-struggle-to-move-forward/2206419
Democrats' explanations are many: not enough money, not enough good candidates and an unfocused message, especially to independent voters.
Democratic candidates, especially those running for state house, state senate, US house, and local races are struggling more than ever to raise the money needed to fund the kind of campaign needed to win. Speaking to democrats in New Mexico about the issues of recruiting candidates, I was informed: “People don’t want to run if they don’t think there is money to support them.”
The problem carries through to most states, and the question is how do we fix it? No matter who you support for president, whether you are a huge Bernie Sanders fan or a big Hillary Clinton supporter, we are seeing this week around the country how state houses can have a significant impact in a very negative way for all citizens everywhere.
Changing stances on many issues — from gay rights, prosecution standards, local law enforcement, state handling of death penalty, women’s issues, state tax policy.. those things are happening in state houses everywhere; but the Democratic party is frankly being starved to death while funding leaves their state to large national campaigns.
Analysis done through Smoky Hill Strategies, and also evaluated by Bold Media notes that many of the Democratic candidates running races around the country are facing a much more difficult problem: broke state parties, county parties, and fewer individuals willing to give into local races. “More democrats are donating to moderate Republicans, assuming their districts can’t be won by a democrat and it isn’t worth the effort; but that fundraising is killing them,” noted a Mississippi fundraiser, “there isn’t anything left after a campaign, the money doesn’t go anywhere but into the Republican pockets that help the crazies. Those moderate Republicans aren’t going to Democratic print houses. They aren’t paying into Democratic infrastructure. They aren’t paying their costs to a state Democratic party.. the Republicans, even the crazies, get that money, those resources.. Democrats backing moderate Republicans — it is destroying the party.”
There is a solution for this, and it’s difficult: more Democrats need to be willing to devote some resources into state and local races. Commit yourself to give $10 or $20 a month — the price of a pizza — to a county or state party, or find a candidate anywhere in the country you’re willing to invest in based on their issues. Maria Chappelle Nadal, the Senator who held the floor for hours on end in the Democratic filibuster in Missouri noted, “we have to stay out there.. we need more elected Senators, and that has a cost”. Other senators agreed, but where are those resources?
For Democrats, in order to make 2016 a success, it cannot be a race that focuses solely on the US presidential race. For many Democrats, now is the time to begin to seriously invest in state and local races. If you are a Democrat in a district where you know that your candidates are safe, find somewhere else in the country and invest some resources.
With the help of State party officials in 14 states and Ballotpedia, I’m more than willing to make some suggestions. Are you interested in helping Democrats anywhere in the country? Already maxed out to Hillary or Bernie, or maybe you’re thinking about how to make a difference?
Leave a comment. Tell me where you are in the country, or where you want to invest in the country, and I’ll try to get you an answer as to the races you should consider, and why.
Kossacks, it’s on you now. Let’s not end 2016 with the presidency…. and find we still haven’t won the US House seats, the state senate seats, the state house seats and state wide races — Attorney Generals, Secretary of States, Governors.
Let’s do this.