The states highlighted in the above map share one thing in common: they have never voted against a candidate named “Clinton” in any national election since 1992. Note that the closest thing to an exception among these states is Arkansas, which voted against Bill Clinton in his 1980 bid for reelection as Governor.
From Bill’s 1992 primary campaign, to the general election campaign that fall, to Bill’s reelection in 1996, to Hillary’s 2008 run, these states have voted for the candidate named “Clinton” in every presidential contest of the past 24 years. Three of these states have also voted for Hillary in the current cycle: Arkansas, Ohio, and Tennessee.
The natural question is “why?” What is it about these 10 states that makes them so strongly supportive of Bill and Hillary Clinton across the decades they have been in public life?
These states are all fairly different, though they are concentrated in a few specific areas: the far west (CA and NM), and along the spine of Appalachia (AR to NY) — plus NJ.
I would love to hear from Kossacks in some of these other states as to what they think makes their neighbors so inclined to back the Clintons, but I do have some thoughts as to why they are so popular in my home state of CA.
It goes back to Clintonism, and what the Clintons represent as figures in the Democratic Party. In short, the Clintons have positioned themselves as the preeminent avatars of moderate liberalism on the American political stage. They represent the kind of Democrats who (along with POC) helped revive the party’s declining fortunes in the wake of its Reagan era drubbings: fiscally centrist social liberals. Many people who come from other countries often remark at how odd US politics looks when compared to their home nations: some of the US’s wealthiest jurisdictions, places like Connecticut, Manhattan, and San Francisco (indeed, California at large), vote overwhelmingly for the party of the left, a phenomenon that would be nearly unthinkable in most of the world. California in many respects exemplifies this: places like Beverly Hills and the San Francisco Bay Area (including its wealthy suburbs) are strongly Democratic. Yet the Democratic Party is obviously not just an alliance of rich liberals, and its core support is anchored in communities of color (of which California has a great many). What is so remarkable about the Clintons is their ability to bring these two groups together and secure solid support from both simultaneously; in that way they reflect the balancing act that the larger Democratic Party engages in on a regular basis. What I believe helps the Clintons hold these disparate supporters together is one crucial commonality: upper income moderates and POC are both at least somewhat distant from “pure liberalism.” What this means is that they share the common element of holding views that are a mix of liberal and moderate, placing them some degree away from the Democratic Party’s far left (think your typical Sanders supporter). Wealthy moderates hold fiscal views that keep them from fully endorsing the agenda of the progressive left (see Proposition 13 for a demonstration of that), while many POC maintain some socially conservative positions (see Proposition 8 for a demonstration of that). Being united in their shared status as “imperfect liberals” seems to bring them together in an unexpected coalition, one spearheaded by the Clintons. It seems like this framework would also help explain New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania’s strong support for the Clintons.
In the context of the 2016 primary campaign, it has always struck me as laughable to hear Sanders supporters claim that their candidate will not only win in California, but win it in such a landslide that his massive defeats in other states will be erased. Between its higher-than-average concentration of upper income moderates and its occasionally-conservative-leaning communities of color, there just isn’t the space for a Sanders victory, in my view. I don’t know if there is a single state that can save the flagging fortunes of Senator Sanders’ presidential bid — what I do know is that if any state is going to be the one to save his campaign, Prop 8-afornia isn’t it.
Thanks for reading my musings on the 10 states that form the core of “Clinton Country!” I’d love to hear people’s take on what this data point (degree of support for the Clintons across the decades) says about these 10 states, Bill and Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party, and American politics overall.