Leading Off:
● OH-08: On Tuesday, tea party-aligned forces scored a major symbolic win in the primary for Speaker John Boehner's old House seat. Businessman Warren Davidson outpaced state Rep. Tim Derickson 32-24 in the primary for this safely red district north of Cincinnati.
When Davidson originally entered the race, he looked like little more than a Some Dude. However, the well-funded Club for Growth saw he had potential and endorsed him. Jim Jordan, who represents a neighboring House seat and leads the far-right House Freedom Caucus, soon followed suit. This contest quickly became an expensive proxy war between the different GOP factions. The group Right Way Initiative spent $450,000 boosting Derickson, but the Club dumped $1 million for Davidson. Davidson himself did some self-funding and outspent most of his rivals.
State Sen. Bill Beagle hoped that he'd be able to slip through by consolidating support around Springfield, but he only took 20 percent; businessman Jim Spurlino, who ran an insane ad claiming that an unknown party tried to blackmail him out of the race, won just 7 percent. Because Boehner resigned, a special primary was also held, and the results were about the same; Davidson won't have much trouble in the June special election.
Senate:
● NH-Sen: Senate Majority PAC recently launched a $200,000 ad buy tying GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte to both Donald Trump and the Supreme Court blockade, and they seem to like what they're seeing. The group has announced that they'll spend an additional $435,000 to air the spot another week.
● NV-Sen: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto recently launched a three-week TV ad buy for $580,000, and she's out with a new spot. Masto stands in a dimly lit street with the Las Vegas Strip just behind her. The candidate tells the viewer, "These streets can be tough and too often, they're the end of the road for vulnerable young women." Masto then talks about her work combatting sex trafficking as state attorney general.
● OH-Sen: Former Gov. Ted Strickland won the Democratic primary on Tuesday, and the Koch-backed Freedom Partners is welcoming him to the general election by launching a $2 million ad buy against him. The spot features a man identified as "Joel," who says he worked for DHL for 25 years. Joel describes how he lost his job when Strickland was governor, and argues that "there's no reason we should go back to Ted Strickland." Strickland faces GOP Sen. Rob Portman in the fall.
● PA-Sen: Following Barack Obama's nomination of Judge Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court, Democrat Katie McGinty is right out the gate with a new ad bashing Republican Sen. Pat Toomey for trying "to make the Supreme Court an extension of Republican partisan politics." The spot features an extended clip of McGinty speaking at a candidate forum where she tries to link Toomey's SCOTUS obstructionism with other conservative aims, like "tak[ing] away a woman's right to choose," "health care," and "the right to collectively bargain for a living wage."
McGinty's main rival for the Democratic nomination, ex-Rep. Joe Sestak, has also released his first ad of the race, which offers some solid emotional appeal. The new minute-long spot revolves around Pennsylvanians declaring that Sestak "has their six"—military lingo, they explain, for having someone's back, "because your back is in the six o'clock position." A narrator then touts Sestak's Navy credentials (he achieved the rank of three-star admiral), but then the candidate explains he unexpectedly had to leave the armed forces when his four-year-old daughter was diagnosed with brain cancer, "to help her fight." In hospitals, he says he met "too many families that didn't have health insurance," turning him into an ardent advocate for Obamacare. Sestak concludes: "I've got Pennsylvania's six."
House:
● FL-01: While termed-out state Sen. Don Gaetz sounded very interested in seeking this safely red Panhandle seat last year when it looked like Rep. Jeff Miller would run for the Senate, he's announced that he won't go for it now that Miller is just straight-up retiring. State Rep. Matt Gaetz, who is Don's son, recently confirmed that he's considering, and it sounds like the elder Gaetz is deferring to him.
If Matt Gaetz gets in, he may have some competition in the August GOP primary. State Sen. Greg Evers looked very likely to run last year if Miller left, but he hasn't committed to a bid yet. While the Pensacola News-Journal's Will Isern writes that "[t]hose in the know say the Republican senator from Baker is nearly ready to make his announcement," Evers himself only says he's considering, though he told WEARTV on Monday that he expects to decide in the next few days. Evers represents about two-thirds of this seat in the legislature.
Escambia County Supervisor of Elections David Stafford also is making noises about getting in. Stafford says he's been encouraged to run and now that the Florida presidential primary is over, he'll consider it. Pensacola Mayor Ashton Hayward has been mentioned as a possible candidate and he's refused requests for a statement from both the News-Journal and WEARTV, so he's at least not shooting the idea down.
● GA-11: Freshman Rep. Barry Loudermilk faces a primary challenge from businessman Daniel Cowan in May, but FreedomWorks has his back. While Loudermilk hasn't made much noise during his brief time in DC he is a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, so it's not too surprising to see this tea party-friendly group supporting him. Cowan probably won't be able to effectively run to Loudermilk's right, but it's not clear exactly what argument Cowan's going to use to try and convince voters to dump the congressman. Cowan hasn't said much publicly, and he doesn't even have much of a campaign website up yet.
● IL-01: On Tuesday, Rep. Bobby Rush defeated Chicago Alderman Howard Brookins by a decisive 71-19 to secure renomination in this safely blue seat. Brookins never raised very much money, which made it hard for him to convince voters that they needed to oust the longtime congressman. Rush is the subject of occasional retirement rumors, but he probably will stay in the House as long as he wants to.
● IL-08: Businessman Raja Krishnamoorthi is one step closer to having the longest last name in the House. On Tuesday, Krishnamoorthi defeated state Sen. Mike Noland 57-29 to secure the Democratic nod to replace Senate nominee Tammy Duckworth. Krishnamoorthi badly lost the 2012 primary to Duckworth but this time, Krishnamoorthi was able to decisively outspend his opponents and secure the support of powerful national Democrats. Krishnamoorthi will face DuPage County Board Member Pete DiCianni in the fall, but he'll be the overwhelming favorite in this Obama 57-41 seat.
● IL-10: For the third cycle in a row, voters in this affluent suburban Chicago seat get to choose between Republican Bob Dold! and Democrat Brad Schneider. On Tuesday, Schneider defeated Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering 54-46. Both Democrats spent plenty of money and each had some prominent supporters: Nancy Pelosi backed Schneider, while Sen. Dick Durbin recorded an ad for Rotering. Obama won this seat 58-41, but this area still supports moderate-sounding Republicans like Dold downballot.
● IL-15: The Republican establishment has crashed and burned in the presidential race but so far, congressional incumbents are making it out of their primaries. On Tuesday, Rep. John Shimkus defeated state Sen. Kyle McCarter 60-40 to secure renomination in this safely red downstate seat. McCarter tried to channel tea party rage, and the anti-tax Club for Growth aired some ads for him. However, McCarter had problems raising money, and Shimkus and his allies wisely took this contest seriously.
● NC-02: After getting elected as a tea partier in 2010, Renee Ellmers quickly angered her former allies by becoming too close to the House leadership. North Carolina's new congressional map (which has not yet been approved in federal court) throws Ellmers into a district with fellow GOP Rep. George Holding, and while Ellmers is quick to point out that she's the only one who actually lives in the new 2nd, Holding represents 57 percent of the seat to Ellmers' 18 percent. Ellmers isn't going to out-establishment Holding, a wealthy former U.S. attorney, so she's hoping to recapture some of the old tea party magic that sent her to Washington in the first place.
While Ellmers sounded likely to vote for John Kasich just a week ago, she now is telling anyone who will listen that she supported Donald Trump in Tuesday's presidential primary. It's unclear if any voters or organizations will actually care though, especially since Ellmers will not be sharing a ballot with Trump in June. But unless Ellmers can successfully portray Holding as a carpetbagger, her only hope of winning is to harness the type of anti-establishment voters who turned against her a while ago.
● NY-03, 04: Republicans seem to have finally cleared a path for state Sen. Jack Martins, as his last remaining primary opponent, former Marine David "Bull" Gurfein, has succumbed to GOP entreaties that he run against Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice in New York's 4th rather than for the open 3rd Congressional District. It's pretty much a suicide mission for Gurfein: While Obama took the 3rd just 51-48, he carried the 4th 56-43, and Rice is a strong incumbent.
But Gurfein probably received at least some vague assurances about his future political prospects in exchange for his sacrifice, since Long Island (and national) Republicans are very eager to make a play for the 3rd. The New York candidate-filing deadline is a month away, but it looks like Martins will get by without a serious primary. While Brookville Village Mayor Daniel Serota expressed interest in running back in January and filed with the FEC in early March, he recently sent them a letter withdrawing his statement of candidacy. Suffolk County Legislator Rob Trotta filed with the FEC back in January, but he doesn't appear to have done anything to get a campaign together beyond that. Democrats, meanwhile, face the exact opposite situation: a competitive, multi-way race that won't be resolved until June's primary. In the general election, Daily Kos Elections currently rates this contest a Tossup.
● NY-05: While state Sen. James Sanders filed to challenge Rep. Gregory Meeks last year in the primary for this safely blue Queens seat, he never announced he was running. And now he won't be: On Tuesday, Sanders confirmed that he would seek re-election instead.
● OH-14: To no one's surprise, Rep. David Joyce easily defeated ex-state Rep. Matt Lynch 65-35 in the GOP primary for this suburban Cleveland seat. Lynch held Joyce to a 55-45 win in 2014, but the incumbent had one big advantage he didn't have last time. Joyce was facing primary voters for the first time back then: In 2012, Republican party leaders had handed him the nomination after the district's Republican congressman abruptly dropped out of the race, so Joyce got to enjoy more of the benefits of incumbency this time. Lynch barely raised any money, while Joyce and his allies at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce ran ads here. While Romney only narrowly carried this seat, Democrats aren't in a position to seriously contest it: Team Blue has renominated Michael Wager, who lost to Joyce 63-33 in 2014.
● PA-02: On Tuesday, ex-Gov. Ed Rendell, who is also a former Philadelphia mayor, endorsed state Rep. Dwight Evans' primary campaign against indicted incumbent Chaka Fattah. Rendell joins Gov. Tom Wolf and Mayor Jim Kenney in Evans' corner, while recently termed-out Mayor Michael Nutter is supporting Fattah. The primary for this safely blue Philadelphia seat is April 26.
● PA-08: State Rep. Steve Santarsiero's first ad of the Democratic primary for this open swing seat is, in a word, startling—and not in a good way. Out of absolutely nowhere, Santarsiero, who narrates the spot, starts his story on Sept. 11, 2001, saying, "I woke up that day and the world changed. I saw them fall from my office window"—"them" being the twin towers of the World Trade Center, shown damaged then collapsed in a pair of still photos that are simply shocking to see.
So what is Santarsiero's connection to 9/11? Did he lose friends or loved ones? Does he have a statement to make about terrorism or national security? Nothing of the sort. He simply says that he was motivated to quit the practice of law and return home to teach children; from there he segues into a description of his priorities as a state legislator. As profoundly affecting as the attacks were, using them as a hook to tell your otherwise unrelated life story seems extremely gratuitous. Fifteen years on, it bears repeating that photos of the destroyed towers depict the scene of a mass murder. It just doesn't feel right to use them in a campaign ad this way.
Legislative:
● IL State House: President Obama and the Illinois Democratic leaders scored a huge win on Tuesday, as attorney Juliana Stratton ousted state Rep. Ken Dunkin 68-32 in a safely blue Chicago state House seat. Last year, Dunkin cast the decisive vote that prevented legislative Democrats from overriding Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner's veto on a bill that would have reversed cuts on social services. Rauner and his allies spent huge sums to boost Dunkin in the Democratic primary, but labor helped Stratton outraise him. Dunkin's fate was probably sealed last week when Obama endorsed Stratton and recorded a TV ad for her.
● Special Elections: Via Johnny Longtorso:
Pennsylvania HD-57: Republican Eric Nelson easily defeated Democrat Linda Iezzi by a 66-34 margin.
Pennsylvania HD-192: Unsurprisingly, Democrats prevailed here. Lynwood Savage won with 77 percent, while independent/"Leon's Education Party" candidate Leon Williams came in second with 19 percent. Republican Robert Bedford was a distant third with 4 percent.
Pennsylvania HD-200: Also unsurprisingly, Democrats held on to this seat. Tonyelle Cook-Artis defeated Republican Latryse McDowell by a 95-5 margin.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
