media.wix.com/…
A New Emerson New York poll shows Clinton crushing Sanders 71-23, winning every single demographic group except 18-34 year olds, which she loses only by 13%. She is ahead by Southern-like margins among African Americans (72-22) as well as claiming 73% of women and 66% of men. Her smallest lead in any over-34 age group is 35-54 year olds, whom she takes by 45%.
Obviously New York is the state Hillary represented in the Senate and or which she was elected twice, but it’s worth noting that the Sanders campaign have been playing up their ability to pull off a surprise there recently, e.g. calling it a ‘showdown’ in a conference call after Tuesday, on which
“both Devine and Weaver stressed that upcoming contests in Western states — Arizona, Washington, California, Idaho — and also in New York, would be far friendlier to Sanders than to Clinton.”
www.politico.com/…
More importantly, it’s also a state Sanders simply can’t afford to lose by that sort of number. A rough calculation suggests that a win that lopsided would net Hillary about 100 delegates — more than Sanders is likely to net if he wins 7 of the next 8 contests by large margins. In other words, it’s actually plausible that she will have a bigger delegate lead in just over a month than she has now, but with nine less (mostly favourable) states for Bernie to possibly catch up — despite people saying that his best territory lies ahead. It also bodes poorly for him in Connecticut and New Jersey — and potentially in other closed primaries like Pennsylvania, especially given his relatively poor numbers among registered Democrats to date.
New York votes April 19th. Sanders fans better hope he gets an awful lot of momentum from his expecting upcoming caucus wins.
On the GOP side, Trump is sailing ahead by a similar 50 point margin, with Kasich on a hilarious 1%. Both Sanders and Clinton are poised to beat either Cruz or Trump in the GE, Clinton by marginally more — though as might be expected, Trump fares a bit better than the very un-New-York Cruz.
The poll was conducted March 14th-16th.
EDIT: It’s only fair to note that it seems to be an outlier, as it’s landline and other Siena polling has a closer race (Though ‘closer’ still means Clinton up by 20, which could net her almost as many delegates as Florida) — although this is the first poll mostly conducted since her big Tuesday wins.