Armaggeddon Cometh
For those few who have read my little posts, this article may be a little lengthy and a little detailed, but it is my hope that you will read it, and be absolutely terrified by it. Once you get over that, make sure that whatever you do, wherever you are, VOTE. It quite literally may be the last time you ever get the chance.
Let’s start with the basics. Understand that the media’s job is not to inform you. It is to get ratings so they can charge for advertising. There are still a rare few that actually try to inform and report, (Rachel Maddow on Flint Michigan, Richard Engle on the Middle East, Christiane Amanpour on International News and Diane Sawyer as just a few) but most of the good ones have left us. The rest are paid to sensationalize, dramatize and conflagrate a story, any story, to maximize ratings. That is not a judgment on them, it is merely a reality since all television is driven by ratings, not facts. The internet reporters are not usually reporters and most have little, or no, journalistic training and the large majority are driven by political ideology, one way or the other. Don’t even get me started on radio.
In the interest of full disclosure, I am generally a Progressive, but I started as a Reagan Republican. I have supported both parties at some point in my adult life, and I try to stay informed but, like most of us, it is often difficult to keep up with all of it, all of the time. I do believe in moving forward, not looking back to “the good old days;” and I don’t believe our country is doomed or needs to be “taken back” ….yet. I have studied Constitutional Law as a student and for years as an adult. My passions are History in general an American History specifically. I have a profound love for my country and I believe in political discourse from all sides, even when I vehemently disagree with something. Ignorance is never your friend.
All that being said, what do you think would happen if one party hijacked the election? I am not talking about another Supreme Court anointing a President, or hanging chads, or unclear ballots, or recounts. I am talking about a straight up, right in front of us, hijacking of the White House. Not just for a particular candidate, but for the benefactors who have been trying to buy our government for years. I am talking about putting someone not even running for either party right now into the White House without getting a single vote in a single primary. Legally and simply and there is nothing we can do about it unless we vote before it happens.
Right now, you probably think I am nuts. So let’s look at this step by step.
Primaries and Caucuses:
Each party has a nominating process. There are similarities between them but each has a slightly different way of choosing their nominee. There are 2 basic ways each party has chosen to nominate a candidate. Caucuses, which are loosely organized voting precincts determined by either the state or the party. Voting can be done by raising one’s hand, writing a candidate on a piece of paper and counting the totals just like in the old days, voice vote etc. Candidates and supporters often campaign during the vote and try to get caucus member to switch within the precincts during the vote. That is not allowed in a primary.
A Primary is a closed ballot system in which each voter casts a secret ballot. The ballots are counted just like in a general election and the totals are reported to an authority like a Supervisor of Elections or Secretary of State or both. There are 50 states, the District of Columbia, and 5 US Territories; however not every state or every territory holds a Primary or a Caucus. For example, according to the GOP map, North Dakota does not hold either a primary or a caucus for the Republican nominee.
Who Can Vote?
There are 3 basic types of Primaries or Caucuses. First is “Dedicated” which means only voters from one party can vote in that election. Registered Republicans vote for Republicans, registered Democrats vote for Democrats and registered Independents and other parties don’t get to vote. “Open” means anyone can vote for anyone in either party. “Mixed” allows some hybrid mixture of both Open and Dedicated. These are rare and really confusing and this article is not designed to go into great detail, just give the basics.
Delegates
Each party awards “delegates” that go to the party convention and cast a vote for the candidate that won their state primary or caucus. This can get complicated so bear with me for just a minute.
Each state ‘awards’ delegates according to a formula chosen by each party before the Primary or Caucus. These can be “winner take all” like Florida or Ohio, or “proportional” like most states, or a “hybrid”. Each state gives a number of delegates for the popular vote and some give delegates for “districts” (sort of a bonus vote) and each party holds a set number of delegates that belong to the party.
For the Democrats, each Democratic Governor, House Member, Senate member and some high ranking state or party officials are given a vote called a “super delegate” vote. This was sensationalized predominantly by MSNBC to cause hysteria for Bernie supporters who were told “super delegates” were trying to “steal” the nomination. Roughly 15% of the total delegates are super delegates. These votes are not committed to any candidate until the convention in August but it sure does give the pundits plenty of grenades to hurl into the democratic primaries to rile up the left until then.
Republicans don’t use Super Delegates. Theirs is more complicated. They give out “at large” (popular vote) and a “bonus at large” based upon an unspecified formula of “past Republican electoral success” plus unspecified “congressional district” (3 per district) plus RNC member delegates (3 votes).
Okay that is it for the basics. Now, a little history.
Convention History
Four years ago, Republicans got a scary surprise when Ron Paul delegates nearly overturned the nominating process by “switching” votes at the convention. Actual violence broke out and it was an ugly fight to confirm Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee in the end. Ron Paul supporters left with a nasty taste in their mouths and the RNC added a rule to prevent something like that in the future. It is called Rule 40b. Basically to be nominated, a candidate must have won a dedicated majority of delegates from at least 8 states to be placed on the ballot. Only Cruz and Trump have done that so far, but Kasich could conceivably pull that off if he picks up 7 more states. A long shot, but if he sweeps the northeast it is possible.
In 1968, the Democrats got a shellacking when Hubert Humphrey was nominated without winning a single primary but was chosen as the party favorite. That did not end well, and the violence from the 1968 primaries is still alive in the minds of older voters. The Democrats are not big on voting against their constituents because it ended so badly with Humphrey and it took decades to repair the damage to credibility.
Summing up Conventions
What does all this mean? It means that just because you voted for your candidate in the primary or caucus, the party is not necessarily obliged to give that person the nomination. To win for the Democrats, the nominee must enter the convention with 2383 delegates. For the Republicans they must enter the convention with 1237 delegates. Otherwise, all bets are off. For the Democrats it goes to an open vote. For Republicans, it could get ugly.
How could Rule 40b affect the Republican nomination?
There are several possible scenarios
- Someone enters the convention with 1237 votes-game over. He gets the nomination. Right now the only possible candidate is Trump
- No one has 1237 votes so only those candidates with a majority of dedicated delegates from at least 8 states will be put on a ballot. Right now that would be a choice between Cruz and Trump. In the words of Lindsay Graham R-S. Carolina “It’s all like being shot or poisoned, you get the same result….” All candidates with a majority of dedicated delegates from 8 or more states would be put on a ballot and then voted on. Whoever wins a majority of the ballot “could” become the nominee
- If no one wins a majority, the delegates can put forth candidates. Even candidates that have never run before. (Begin uneasy feelings of impending dread).
- Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have both registered with the FEC to run for President and Vice President of the United States as of February 1, 2016. (Disclosure, Romney claims he does this every year and it means nothing).
- Are you feeling a little dread yet? Just to be clear, they could nominate David and Charles Koch as President and Vice President from here.
- The Republicans can change the Rule 40b requirement up to 1 hour before the ballots are cast and do whatever they want. Scary, huh?
Republicans have been very vocal in their clear intent to hijack the vote at the convention to keep Donald Trump or Ted Cruz from getting the nomination. The “establishment” Washington Republican party with its solidly entrenched big donors and lobbyists are willing to do whatever it takes to stay in power. They have even suggested running a third party candidate. And that, my friends is where you should feel a shiver of dread run down your spine.
A basic lesson in Constitutional Law
I hear it mostly from Bernie and Trump supporters. “The President should be chosen by popular vote.” Ask Andrew Jackson, Samuel Tilden, Grover Cleveland and Al Gore how that worked out for them. Since our children are no longer taught real American History, most people today are completely unaware that, under the US Constitution, the President and Vice President are not elected by popular vote. They are elected by the Electoral College. This is not the place to discuss the merits of the Electoral College, but our Founding Fathers did not want us to elect the President in a popularity contest. They wanted the President to be chosen by learned men, with experience at governance and with the interest of the states to select the President and Vice President to act and speak for the country.
The Actual Constitution
Article II, Section 1. “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.”
In English, that means, each state legislature gets to decide who gets to be an Elector. Today, each state usually, though not always, has a “slate” of electors for each party. Each state usually sends the winning slate to Washington DC to cast their vote before the President of the Senate (Joe Biden this election) according to the results of the popular vote in each state. A few states allow electors to abandon their pledge and vote differently but most states consider that a crime. There is plenty of talk in Republican controlled states to allow electors to switch sides if a Democrat wins, but no state has actually done that yet.
Summing Up the Constitutional Voting Thing
So now that you are over your shock that you, John/Jane Q. Citizen, do not actually get to vote for President and Vice President under the US Constitution, take heart. Most state Constitutions do give you that right. But understand that can change at any time according to the state legislature, the state constitution, the state Secretary of State, and the state courts. Or the US Supreme Court.
One more thing about the Constitution – The Armageddon Rule
The Electoral College thing also requires that a Presidential candidate win 50%+1 of the Electors to be President. In modern terms that means 270 Electoral votes. If that does not happen, then the United States House of Representatives gets to choose the next President and the US Senate gets to pick the Vice President. That’s right. Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell get to lead the vote. Congress will be in a ‘lame duck” session and many of the members of the House and Senate could have been voted out of office, but they will get to choose both the President and Vice President before they leave. Not the American people. Unless we vote. Unless we vote like we have never voted since Bush v. Clinton in 1992 (61.3% turnout).
Let’s be clear about this.
Say Trump gets the nomination and Clinton gets the nomination. Bernie and Cruz supporters decide to stay home and pout because their candidate did not get the nomination and it’s a tie. Then the US House and Senate will choose a President and Vice President. With Republicans in charge and only 2 slates of candidates, can you guess who they will choose?
Say either Trump or Cruz gets the nomination and Clinton gets the nomination and the Republicans run a third-party. *(Mitt Romney filed paperwork with the FEC to run as President on February 1, 2016 just days after his public shaming of Trump. He claimed on Matt Lauer that he is not running. Paul Ryan claims he is not running but then again he also claimed he didn’t want to be Speaker of the House. The same paperwork was also filed in 2013 and 2014 but not 2015). No one gets a 270 majority. From the top 3, the Republican House would choose Romney for President. The Republican Senate would choose Ryan as Vice President
Say Clinton gets the nomination and Trump gets the nomination and Sanders supporters decide to ‘write Bernie in”. No one gets the magic 270 Electoral votes. The Republican House and Senate will choose for us no matter how many votes a candidate gets.
Say both Trump and Bernie win the nomination. The Republicans run a third party No one gets 270 majority. The House and Senate decide again.
Say both Cruz and Bernie win the nomination and the Republicans run a third party. Barring the fact that Cruz is not eligible under any circumstances to serve as President (another article). Bingo. The House and Senate get to decide again.
Neither Cruz nor Trump win the nomination and the delegates choose a third party. Hillary gets the nomination and Bernie supporters refuse to vote. Third party wins. No one even knows who that is yet. Could be anyone. Could be Chris Christy and Michelle Bachman. Could be Sheldon Adelson and Ted Nugent. Could be Kanye West and Pat Robertson. It could be Grover Norquist and Ann Coulter. It could be Shrek and Donkey. Don’t laugh, House and Senate Republicans have not been dealing with reality for years.
Armageddon
In case you don’t get it, the last time the Congress chose the President and Vice President was in 1824. Andrew Jackson won the popular vote, but Congress chose John Quincy Adams. The first time they chose was in 1800 and it took 36 ballots to elect Thomas Jefferson by 1 vote. That was back when the people running the government believed in our government. The people running it today have no such respect for it. They are there for power and control. If we allow them to take power and control over the election of our President and Vice President, even once, and we allow them to stay in office in November, and we do not replace them in the state houses and governorships, they will NEVER give power back to the people. Why should they? If we don’t show up to vote, and they have to do it for us, why not try “strict constructionism” . Worked for Scalia. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
What Can You Do?
This election is the single most important election you may ever vote in. Remember it, because if you fail to act, if you fail to vote, your children and grandchildren may never get the opportunity to do so.
The world is watching us. Our reputation around the world has protected us. Our ‘shining city on a hill” is still shining even if it has been battered and bruised in recent years. We still have allies around the world and we still have enemies waiting for us to fail. It is OUR job to vote. There is only 1 scenario in which Congress will not take that right from us this year. If WE vote. If WE choose. If WE stand up and say, NO. Not on our watch. Not in our time. Not in this day and age will you take our right to choose the most powerful office in the world as we know it. We will not allow you to turn OUR White House into the joke that Congress has become. We will protect our heritage, our legacy, or history, our future and WE will decide.
If your candidate loses the nomination, swallow your disappointment and get out there and vote anyway. Otherwise, you are asking the most dysfunctional Congress in the entire history of this country to choose your children’s future. I hope you are terrified enough to get out and VOTE! Only you can prevent Ryan and McConnell from destroying one of the greatest countries in the history of the world in favor of hand-picked millionaires and corporations selected and promoted by the United States Supreme Court.
One last scary thought
Oh, and speaking of the Supreme Court. McConnell has made it clear that neither he, nor any of his Republican friends in the Senate will allow President Obama to appoint a Supreme Court Justice no matter how qualified or uncontroversial. The mantra from the Republican aisle is “the people should have a voice in deciding” and we will “wait till after the election.” Call me nuts. Call me confused. But if I was Mitch McConnell I would be asking, “who will decide this election?”
Sources:
Tricks and Triangulation Not New to GOP Delegate Process: Rachel Maddow, March 18, 2016; http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/tricks-and-triangulation-not-new-to-gop-647895107737?cid=eml_mra_20160320
Trump Fails to Cover Back Door Rival Delegates: Rachel Maddow, March 18, 2016; Interview with Doug Wead, Senior Advisor to Ron Paul 2012 Campaign; http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/trump-vulnerable-to-rnc-delegate-skulduggery-647901763866
The Official Guide to 2016 Republican Nominating Process; https://www.gop.com/the-official-guide-to-the-2016-republican-nominating-process/
Caucus v. Primary; http://www.factcheck.org/2008/04/caucus-vs-primary/
National Republican Committee Rules Convening the Next National Convention;https://cdn.gop.com/docs/2012_RULES_Adopted.pdf
Presidential Election Facts; ; http://www.history.com/topics/us-presidents/presidential-election-facts
US Constitution, Article I, Section 1; constitutioncenter.org/...
The Hill: Politics; http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/266620-graham-picking-cruz-or-trump-like-getting-shot-or
National Constitution Center; 12th Amendment; http://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/amendments/amendment-xii
Romney/Ryan FEC Application; http://www.mediaite.com/election-2016/calm-down-romney-and-ryan-are-probably-not-running-for-president-in-2016/
CNN Politics: Mitt Romney “I won’t run for President”; David Wright, CNN; www.cnn.com/...
Business Insider: Politics; Colin Campbell, March 4, 2016; http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romney-donald-trump-contested-convention-2016-3
Constitution of the United States; http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charters/constitution_transcript.html
1968 Democratic Convention: The Bosses Strike Backhttp://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1968-democratic-convention-931079/?no-ist