Cross posted from Pruning Shears.
The Republican establishment is learning to its horror that Donald Trump's candidacy is for real. They kept expecting him to fade away or implode, and he kept not doing either. To be fair pretty much everyone expected that. If I were an MSM thought leader I'd have dismissed him as Herman Cain 2.0, and would also have egg on my face right now as well. He has defied the known laws of the political universe. It's like we're in a classical Newtonian world and Trump just dropped some quantum physics on us: what is this thing?
I don't mean his positions, which range from Beltway apostasy on trade and entitlements to slightly more poorly concealed dog whistles about scary non-white people. I mean the fact that, as Chris Cillizza noted, his success in inexplicaple. Traditionally, high negatives combined with high name recognition doomed a candidate to failure. If few know you, but those who do dislike you, that can be overcome. If lots of people know of you, but haven't formed a definite opinion, that can be changed. But if lots of people know and very specifically dislike you, forget it.
Not for Donald though. He's unpopular, he's had month after month of overwhelmingly negative saturation coverage, and yet he keeps rolling on. And so we're hearing various officials and spokespeople for respectable conservatism make delightfully word-esque noises with their mouths about how they are not going to stand for this. They'll form a third party, or even better, pull the rug out from under him on the convention floor. Which of course is nonsense.
They won't form a third party because there is no substantive constituency for respectable conservatism, and if you'd like proof of that please follow the ongoing follies of Michael Bloomberg. If they try to throw the nomination to someone else there will be a floor fight that'll make Chicago 1968 look like a croquet party. (With the following likely contrast: Chicago was covered as rabid, unwashed hippies threatening to plunge the country into anarchy. Cleveland 2016 would be upstanding patriots rising up against a corrupt and insulated elite.)
Neither of those things will happen. If Trump becomes the nominee, the rest of the party will fall into line. Shocked and uncomprehending, with enthusiasm ranging from sullen resignation to feigned enchantment, but they'll go along. To avoid a similarly unpleasant surprise there are two things I think the Democratic nominee, who I'm assuming will be Clinton at this point, should account for.
First, going negative is ineffective on Trump. His candidacy is a giant middle finger to all of Washington. There is nothing that can come out of there, no media critique, no unattributed 30 second ad, no ringing "at long last sir" denunciation, nothing, absolutely nothing, that can sink him with his supporters. The whole point of his candidacy is to be upsetting to the people who are right now most upset by him. It's Cleek's Law applied to all of DC.
Second, it would be dangerous to think of Trump vs. Clinton as basically bigots and racists versus everyone else. There is an honest to God anti-establishment sentiment in the country this year. On the right a good part of it has been ginned up by racial fearmongering and the uncertainties of a changing social landscape (black president, marriage equality, etc). Democrats obviously shouldn't cater to that - but neither should they think those beliefs are the whole picture.
The unexpected success of Bernie Sanders shows that economic anxiety is a huge driver of anti-establishment feeling. A capital that can even contemplate a term like secular stagnation is one that has basically given up on making any kind of vigorous effort to improve the lives of most citizens. Sanders has tapped into that very effectively. Proposals like Medicare For All are big and bold, and people don't need an explainer to know what it means or how it would benefit them. Clinton has been far more lackluster on economic issues. Instead of leadership (fight for 15!) we've been getting a kind of synthetic leadership-like polymer (I do not oppose you people fighting for 15!)
A Democratic candidate that does not put concrete, substantive and ambitious economic policies front and center will cede a huge amount of territory to Donald Trump. And a party that fails to generate enough enthusiasm would be delusional not to blame itself first. Democrats are notorious for their contempt for their base, and should they kick this one away I can already hear the recriminations: shallow Millenials treated it like a fad and lost interest before voting, or disgruntled Bernie Bros refused to vote for a girl, or the stupid base once again took a cycle off (why do they keep doing that?!?!) So in advance: if you aren't seeing winning numbers, up your game.
The revolt against the powers that be is, in part, a plea from those who keep slipping farther and farther behind.1 They are begging for someone to put their concerns front and center. The current level of economic distress is the result of conscious policy choices, not an act of God. If the Democratic answer to that is demonizing Republicans ("the rhetoric we’re hearing on the other side has never been lower") and specifics-free pabulum ("build ladders of opportunity and empowerment"), then a pretty good number of folks might decide that a blind howl of rage is the better alternative.
NOTES
1. Comments tend to disappear over time, so I've copied and pasted the following one in full. It's a response to one of Paul Krugman's posts, but it's also a very heartfelt example of the kind of pressure people have been put under:
Paul, please consider that your side of the conversation is in response to a different conversation than you think you are contributing to, that you're not talking to the left's counterpart to those buying in to Trump, the stupid, ignorant, angry an uncouth of the left.
This is what happened to me this week:
Fell off of unemployment for the third time having taken any job I can get which have been uncannily like Orange is the New Black, over qualified and working coworkers who really do like Trump for pay so low debt still accrues despite working full-time.
Interviewed for a job that pays leading children's educational events at a major national level institution, seasonal, PRN, no benefits that pay's $9.75in a market Babysitting pays $14 but as a 50ish woman won't get either.
Interviewed for a customer service job at a financial institution I won't get due to what poverty has done to my credit rating no matter how right for the job I am. Note, going into the recession my only debt was one credit card with a low balance & student loans.
My car horn does not work, need of an oil change and a plate sticker that's expired this week but I can't fix any of these because I have no cash at all, just food stamps.
Compared to other weeks, this one wasn't too bad. No Paul, I'm not angry, stupid, or ignorant. I'm trying to not be homeless.
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