Leading Off
● Iran – legislature and Assembly of Experts (Feb. 26)
Iran's first elections after the country concluded a controversial nuclear deal with Western powers took place Feb. 26, with proponents, led by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, upsetting the conservative hardliners who opposed the agreement. In an unexpected outcome, the elections for both the Iranian legislature and the Assembly of Experts (the body charged with selecting the country's supreme leader, currently the conservative Ali Khamenei) resulted in far more moderates being elected than some analysts had even believed possible. Both bodies are now divided between reformists, moderate conservatives who have backed the nuclear deal and some economic reforms, and the conservative hardliners who had previously been the largest faction.
According to the Associated Press, reformists in the legislature won 85 seats, moderate conservatives took 73 seats, and hardliners held on to 68 seats, with five seats reserved for religious minorities and an additional 59 seats headed to a runoff in April. However, the New York Times estimated that the reformists and moderates jointly won about 80 to 90 seats, with the conservatives taking a similar total and an additional 60 going to independents. The fact that many candidates, particularly potential reformist legislators, are essentially blank slates (intentionally, so as to pass through an anti-democratic screening process run by conservatives) can blur the results. Candidates don't run as members of any specific party, and some candidates appeared on lists put forth by more than one faction, so an exact count is all but impossible.
And the meaning of these results is just as opaque. The Guardian collected some cynical views on the election from U.S. analysts, while Vox makes the case that these elections are potentially game-changing in the both the short and long-term. So what can we really determine?
We can say for sure that some well-known reformers and moderate conservatives won, that a number of prominent hardliners lost, and that the legislature has moved closer to Rouhani and away from the conservatives. However, it is unlikely to move on social issues or promote greater political freedoms, as the previous generation of reformists who pushed such issues earned jail time or exile for their efforts. But on issues like the nuclear deal, greater rapprochement with the West, and economic reforms, Rouhani is likely to receive much more support.
As for the Assembly of Experts, results were similar to the legislature. Vox has claimed that the moderates won a majority in the Assembly, by which they seem to mean the slate endorsed by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, a Rouhani ally, won 46 of the 88 seats. However, many on Rafsanjani's slate were endorsed by conservative lists as well. A report by the Iranian Students' News Agency listed 20 winners who were only on reformist lists, 35 winners who were on both reformist and conservative lists, and 27 winners only on conservative lists, with six independents on no lists. The best way to view this is to see the 35 dually endorsed winners as the moderate-conservative bloc.
As in the legislature, reformist voters were able to knock off some top hardliners, including the previous chairman of the Assembly, Mohammad Yazdi. The new Assembly of Experts will serve for eight years, so if in that time Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains in office, the body will have little real work to do. But if he dies, retires, or is somehow incapacitated, the Assembly would suddenly and briefly become extremely powerful as it selects the next supreme leader. The best comparison to this is the Vatican's College of Cardinals, which has little influence over how the pope runs the Catholic Church until there's a vacancy. Then, for a moment, they have a great amount of power as they select their next leader. Khamenei is 76, so a change is possible in the near-to-medium future.
Asia
● Philippines – president and legislature (May 9)
For American watchers, the most famous Filipino in the upcoming national elections is world champion pro boxer Manny Pacquiao. Pacquiao is currently a member of his country's House of Representatives and is running for a Senate seat in May, which could eventually lead to a presidential bid in 2022. Unfortunately, Pacquiao recently made headlines for extremely disturbing reasons: In public remarks, he called gays "worse than animals." After a torrent of criticism at home and abroad, Pacquiao apologized on Instagram, but his intolerance cost him a sponsorship deal with Nike.
While Pacquiao's comments might have found acceptance in some other countries, they were outside the mainstream of Filipino politics. The Phillippines is a deeply Catholic country where same-sex marriage remains illegal, but otherwise it has a reputation as the most progressive in Asia on the issue of gay rights. Sexual relations between same-sex individuals are legal, and the country hosts numerous pride parades and LGBT organizations.
Whether Pacquiao will pay a price this year for his comments remains to be seen. At the moment, his opponents are challenging him on a more familiar front: They're insisting that Pacquiao's upcoming bout next month in Las Vegas with American Timothy Bradley would violate the country's rules on equal access to media time, and they want election officials to order Pacquaio to postpone the fight. A broader preview of the upcoming elections will appear in next month's International Elections Digest.
Europe
● France – president (April or May, 2017)
Under normal circumstances, first-term French President François Hollande would be expected to run for re-election, and there would be no question that his Socialist Party would eschew a primary to choose its nominee. But as an incumbent who has an approval rating of 15 percent and who would be shut out of a runoff according to polls, Hollande is not facing normal circumstances. Moreover, the rift between Hollande and many on the French left has grown in recent months, for two big reasons: the first was Hollande's push for a constitutional amendment that would strip those convicted of terror charges of their citizenship; more recently, his government has proposed new legislation that would transform the country's labor laws, in part to make it easier to fire workers.
The left-wing faction of the ruling Socialist Party had long ago distanced itself from Hollande, as well as from Prime Minister Manuel Valls and recently appointed Finance Minister Emmanuel Macron, a former investment banker who has been clamoring to weaken the country's labor laws. In January, a group of French intellectuals, which included renowned economist Thomas Piketty, launched a petition calling for a "primary of all the left," in spite of Hollande's incumbency.
Things got even more even interesting in late February, when Lille Mayor Martine Aubry—who lost the 2012 Socialist Party nomination to Hollande, and who served as labor minister in the late 1990s when France adopted a 35-hour work week—joined an op-ed in Le Monde, one of the country's leading papers, declaring "Enough is enough!" Aubry, who has long been one of the party's most prominent figures, averred that Hollande's latest proposals risk "a durable weakening of France" and called for primaries—a direct shot at Hollande.
There's a big problem, though, for those hoping to defeat Hollande from the left: There is no clear candidate who is preparing to run in a primary, should one be called. Aubry would seem like the most obvious option, but she insisted that she is not looking to be a candidate again. Arnaud Montebourg, who did surprisingly well in the 2012 primaries, has been out of the public eye since Hollande ousted him as economy minister after he criticized the president's economic policies. The only Socialist other than Hollande who appears to be considering a last-minute run is Macron, the finance minister, who would push the party even further to the right.
● Germany – Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Saxony-Anhalt state elections (March 13)
Germany, which has a federal system similar to that in the U.S., is holding elections on March 13 in three states (out of 16 total): Baden-Württemberg, the third most populous state, located in the southwest; Rhineland-Palatinate, a smaller state just north of Baden-Württemberg; and Saxony-Anhlat, a part of the former East Germany located west of Berlin. As is often the case in America, state races are viewed through the lens of federal politics, and with national elections scheduled for 2017, the March elections are seen as a possible preview of what's to come nationwide.
Angela Merkel has served as chancellor of Germany, as well as leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union ("CDU"), since 2005. She currently governs in a so-called "grand coalition" with the largest center-left party, the Social Democratic Party ("SPD"). (In parliamentary politics, a ruling coalition achieves "grand" status when the largest party on the right and the largest party on the left form a broad partnership—something unthinkable in the U.S.). In the past few years, Merkel has seen the most sustained attacks on her leadership from her right flank, primarily on the issues of refugees, where she has led a steadfast, almost religious opposition to quotas, and also on the Eurozone (i.e, those countries that share the euro as their currency), where some believe she has not been tough enough on Greece and other countries with economic problems.
This has led to the creation and growth of a new right-wing party, Alternative for Germany, which opposes immigration and wants to eliminate the Eurozone to put an end to German bailouts of struggling nations. The AfD was founded primarily on economic issues, but an intra-party struggle left a more extreme—and more popular—faction in charge, which has focused primarily on refugees. Frauke Petry, the AfD's leader, recently suggested that border guards fire on illegal immigrants with live ammo.
In addition to the CDU, SPD, and AfD, the left-wing Green Party (which just saw one of its prominent members get caught with meth), the centrist/liberal Free Democratic Party (or "FDP," which has been hurt by AfD's rise), and the far-left Left Party (for once, an easy-to-understand name) also contest elections in Germany. All of the country's elections are conducted using proportional representation with a five percent threshold, which is particularly important for the smaller parties. In the 2013 federal election, both the AfD (in its first election) and the FDP barely missed the five percent mark, meaning they received no seats at all. That forced Merkel and the CDU to seek out a coalition partner from the left side of the aisle.
The common theme in the upcoming state elections is the rise of AfD, which has broken Germany's post-World War II taboo against militant nationalism and has been dubbed the "German tea party" by critics. AfD was not around to contest the previous state races in 2011, but it could complicate traditional German coalitions (SDP-Green and FDP-CDU). A strong showing by the AfD in any of the three states with upcoming elections would be seen as a sharp rebuke to Merkel.
In Saxony-Anhalt, a grand CDU-SDP coalition similar to Merkel's own governs and is more likely than not to remain in power if it maintains a majority, with CDU polling at around 30 percent and SDP just 20. The other two parties receiving significant support are the Left, which tends to perform best in the former East Germany and is polling the low 20s, and AfD, which is in the teens. While these are strong showings for smaller parties, the major parties prefer to avoid working with the Left whenever possible, and AfD will likely get the same treatment. The Greens are polling just above the five percent threshold and FDP just below.
In Rhineland-Palatinate, the SDP currently governs in coalition with the Greens, who had a strong showing of 15 percent in the last election. However, both are likely to lose seats, with the Greens only polling in the high single digits and the SDP in the low 30s after receiving 35 percent last time. The CDU is set to increase its share of the vote from 35 percent to the high 30s and will likely have the first opportunity to form a governing coalition, though as potential partners remain unclear, it could mean a grand coalition is in the offing. The AfD is in high single digits, while both the FDP and the Left are right around the five percent threshold.
Finally, in Baden-Württemberg, Winfried Kretschmann is currently serving as the first Green minister-president (German for governor) in the country's history. The Greens govern this traditionally conservative-leaning state in coalition with the SDP after the two parties received over 47 percent of the vote (24 for Greens, 23 for SDP), compared to 39 percent for the CDU. While the Greens look to increase their share of the vote to 30 percent or more, their success seems to be coming at the expense of the SDP, which is polling in the teens.
The CDU is also polling significantly lower than 2011, down in the low 30s and neck and neck with the Greens for first place. A significant portion of CDU support has gone to AfD, which is polling just above 10. FDP is also likely to make it into the state parliament while the Left is not. Whoever finishes first, between the Greens and CDU, will have the first opportunity to form the government, which will likely include two of the CDU, Greens, and SDP (with an outside chance of a CDU/FDP coalition).
● Ireland – legislature (Feb. 26)
Ireland had been the European Union's poster child for the supposed success of fiscal austerity in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, sporting the Eurozone's fastest growing economy in recent years. However, that supposedly salutary austerity has left many average citizens behind, and in parliamentary elections on Feb. 26, voters abandoned the governing Fine Gael-Labour coalition, which lost its parliamentary majority.
The center-right Fine Gael dropped from 66 seats to 50 while its historic rival, Fianna Fáil, which also occupies the center-right, jumped from 21 seats to 44. Meanwhile, Fine Gael's junior partner, Labour, got crushed on the left, winding up with just 7 seats after heading into the elections with 27. (Like the Liberal Democrats in the UK's general election last year, Labour saw serious blowback for enabling the government's austerity program.)
Filling the gap was Sinn Féin, which was once known only as the political arm of the Irish Republican Army but has successfully rebranded itself as a left-wing anti-austerity party. As a result, Sinn Féin turned in its best-ever performance, going from 14 seats to 23, while a new two-party grouping on the far left called the Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit garnered 6 seats—almost as many as Labour. A number of independents also won seats, spanning from the radical left to the right.
But unlike most of Western Europe, Irish politics don't fall neatly along a left-right divide. Fine Gael leans toward free-market liberalism and has long been opposed by Fianna Fáil, which is somewhat more populist and socially conservative. However, their hostility is less over ideology than history, as both parties trace their roots back to a split following the Irish Civil War in the 1920s. The two parties have alternated leading Ireland since then but have never governed together.
As a result, there's no immediately obvious coalition in the wake of these elections, since Fine Gael and Labour, with just 57 seats out of a total of 157, are well short of a majority and lack any real allies. But some observers think that, after a century of enmity, a Fine Gail-Fianna Fáil alliance might finally come to fruition, since a center-right coalition is the only one that could attain a majority and avoid possible early elections. While the two parties had forsworn such a possibility before the elections, their rhetoric has since softened. Such an alliance would likely be a long-term boon to the left, particularly Sinn Fein, since it would be able to present itself as the true leaders of the opposition. That might also push Ireland toward a more typical left-right political division, but so far that remains to be seen.
● Macedonia – legislature (June 5)
Macedonia was scheduled to hold elections in April after a governmental scandal came out and violent protests followed last year. This forced the European Union to step in and shepherd a deal between the government and the opposition (Macedonia is not an EU member but wants to be, giving the EU significant influence). But elections have been postponed to June 5 at the request of the opposition parties, the EU, and international observers so that better safeguards can be implemented to ensure a fair vote.
● Serbia – legislature (likely April 24)
Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic called early elections for the Balkan nation, which would not otherwise have been required until 2018. Vucic's center-right Serbian Progressive Party has a comfortable majority in parliament (158 of 250 seats), and with wide leads in recent opinion polls, it's likely to at least match its current numbers in Parliament, if not exceed them. Vucic's argument for early elections is that the country needs four years of stability as it works to join the European Union, but his party's large polling advantage was assuredly a factor as well. The only other party currently running in double digits is the Socialist Party of Serbia, which is actually the junior member of the current government, but it is 35 to 40 points behind the SPP. The upcoming election is expected to rubber-stamp the previous one, which took place in 2014.
Serbia's parliament is elected by proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency, which means the percentage of votes a party gets translates roughly into the percentage of seats it gets. There is a five percent electoral threshold to enter Parliament, though it does not apply to parties representing ethnic minorities.
● Spain – legislature (potentially June 26)
After months of deadlock following December's parliamentary elections, which resulted in no clear majority coalition for either the left or the right, the center-left Socialists finally agreed to form a coalition with the nascent center-right party Ciudadanos. The Socialists chose Ciudadanos rather than form a shaky alliance with the radical-left Podemos, in part because such an arrangement would have still required the support of Catalan separatist parties, and the Socialists have balked at demands for a Catalan independence referendum.
But it's a coalition built on sand, since the Socialists and Ciudadanos together hold just 130 seats out of Parliament's 350 seats, far short of a majority. That means Spain will likely head to the polls again on June 26. This sort of outcome has no analog in American politics, with our fixed election dates and presidential system of governance, but it happens not infrequently in parliamentary countries when no government can be formed. What might happen in fresh Spanish elections is anyone's guess.
● United Kingdom – referendum on European Union membership (June 23)
Last month, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced he'll hold a referendum on the United Kingdom's membership in the European Union (EU). This move comes directly after Cameron wrapped up negotiations with the continental body over greater flexibility and independence for his country on several key issues. The referendum is scheduled for June 23, but even though Cameron's promise to conduct one was a key campaign pledge in last year's election, it's already exposed deep rifts within Cameron's governing Conservative Party, and its outcome—and ramifications—are uncertain.
While there are numerous benefits to EU membership (such as increased trade and more uniform business regulations continent-wide), so-called "Euroskeptics" in the U.K. believe the EU has become too powerful and that their country should seek to restore its sovereignty by leaving the organization and renegotiating its relationship. While no nation has ever quit the European Union, some countries, including Norway and Switzerland, have declined membership and instead work with the EU and other European countries from the outside.
In negotiations with the EU, Cameron achieved at least some of his goals. The most concrete aspect of the deal would allow the U.K. to limit benefits to EU migrants who move to the U.K., echoing debates in the U.S. and much of Europe about how welcoming the country should be toward newcomers. On the hot-button topic of sovereignty, the agreement would also create a new power (nicknamed a "red card") that would allow national parliaments to block new EU laws if 55 percent of affected member states vote to do so. And in the economic arena, the deal also includes assurances that the EU won't use British funds to prop up the Euro, though Cameron failed to secure any agreements to reduce what he sees as "excessive regulation" of the financial industry.
While Labour and other parties in the center and on the left of British politics are fairly supportive of remaining in the EU, Cameron's conservatives are badly divided. Six members of Cameron's cabinet (out of 22 total), led by Justice Secretary Michael Gove, have announced their support for the "Leave" campaign, also known by the ugly portmanteau "Brexit." This split at the top masks an even sharper division among the rank and file, as almost half of Tory MPs who have announced their views want to bid adieu to the EU. Most prominently, MP Boris Johnson, the outgoing mayor of London and a future candidate for leader of the Conservative Party, has announced that he is backing the Leavers.
Polling has shown the "Remain" camp with a slight lead over the Leave camp. Some polls have found Leave ahead, though, and a difference between online and phone polling has become evident: Phone polls have shown Remain comfortably winning while online polls see a neck-and-neck race. Many believe the fear of the unknown, the public's trust in Cameron, and the broad support of the opposition will carry the day, but polls are far too uncertain to be confident of any result.
One final note: While the results of the referendum would not be not legally binding—Parliament would still have to enact laws to extricate Britain from the EU if "Leave" wins—the BBC says it would be "political suicide" for lawmakers "to go against the will of the people."
Sub-Saharan Africa
● Niger – president (Feb. 21)
The first round of Niger's presidential election will head to a March 20 runoff as incumbent President Mahamadou Issoufou just narrowly missed an outright majority. He'll face opposition party leader Hama Amadou, who has been imprisoned for an alleged role in a baby-trafficking scheme and who won just 18 percent. Amadou and his supporters contend that his prosecution is politically motivated, and the ordeal presents a test of Niger's fledgling democracy. The Washington Post's Monkey Cage blog provides some key background on the problems surrounding Niger's democratic institutions.
North America
● Canada – Saskatchewan provincial elections (April 4)
Premier Brad Wall and his governing Saskatchewan Party are in good shape to secure a third consecutive term next month, which would be an unprecedented feat for a center-right party in a province that was once the birthplace of Canadian social democracy. Wall, whose ascendancy has been bolstered by remarkable economic growth (thanks in no small part to the province's burgeoning oilpatch), is a savvy politician with a populist touch, and his past wins over the left-leaning New Democratic Party, once a dominant force in Saskatchewan politics, have been crushing and decisive.
The one not-so-minor hitch for Wall is that the province's oil-dependent economy has taken a major beating in the past year, following the global collapse in oil prices. Recent polling has shown the race at its closest point in the past five years, but that's not really saying much: Wall still enjoys an 18-point lead over NDP leader Cam Broten in the most recent survey.
● Canada – Manitoba provincial elections (April 19)
Manitoba's center-left New Democratic Party has governed this central Canadian province for an astonishing 17 years, but its luck appears to be running out. On top of (and because of) the baggage associated with nearly two decades as the incumbent party, Premier Greg Selinger is deeply unpopular with the electorate. In 2013, Selinger absorbed a serious blow after raising the province's sales tax in 2013, despite promising not to do so in the 2011 elections.
Making matters worse, Selinger's past several years in office have been plagued by caucus revolts, resignations from his cabinet, and failed leadership challenges. The polls are looking decidedly grim for the NDP: Surveys indicate the incumbents are trailing Brian Pallister's center-right Progressive Conservatives by 20 to 30 points. Barring a shocking turnaround for Selinger, the NDP will be completely shut out in every province in Canada outside of Alberta come springtime.
Central America/Caribbean
● Haiti – president (postponed to April 24)
Haiti's presidential election has been fraught with controversy and claims of vote rigging after the first round of last October's presidential election favored Jovenel Moïse, the preferred successor of then-President Michel Martelly, who was barred from seeking a second consecutive five-year term. Amid street protests, the leading opposition candidate, Jude Célestin, threatened to boycott the runoff until Martelly finally agreed to step down from office in favor of an interim president. A deal was reached for Parliament to review the disputed results of the first round and postpone the already-delayed runoff once again, this time until April, when it appears Moïse and Célestin will face off again.
While this agreement is generally seen as a positive sign for Haiti's fragile democracy, the ordeal is still far from settled, since the current parliament itself was elected in that very same disputed first round election last year, a state of affairs that some opposition leaders have denounced. For a more in-depth look, the New Yorker recently published a detailed profile of Haiti's current political picture.
● Jamaica – legislature (Feb. 23)
After early elections were called in late January, Jamaica's center-right Labour Party ousted the incumbent center-left People's National Party in an upset, winning the popular vote by an exceptionally narrow 50.2 to 49.7 margin and taking just a 32 to 31 edge in Parliament. That made this the closest-ever election since the country gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1962. The People's National Party had been in power since 2011, but it had presided over an unpopular economic austerity program as part of an IMF bailout of the heavily indebted island nation.
South America
● Bolivia – referendum on presidential term limits (Feb. 21)
In an upset, Bolivia's Socialist president, Evo Morales, narrowly lost a constitutional amendment referendum that would have allowed him to run for another term in 2019. Morales, who has been in power since 2006, had generally been regarded as the most temperate and least corrupt regional ally of the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and his brand of fiery left-wing populism, but last month he became embroiled in a corruption scandal over alleged nepotism toward his girlfriend.
Until recently, Bolivia was one of Latin America's few "Pink Tide" countries—where populist socialist leaders swept to power last decade—that had remained unscathed by scandal, economic mismanagement, and the collapse in commodity prices that has brought down or imperiled leftists in Venezuela, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, and Peru. That fortunate run, however, now appears to be over.
● Peru – president and legislature (April 10)
Peruvian President Ollanta Humala is ineligible to seek a second consecutive term, and this year's election will see an open race between several parties, using a runoff if no one wins a majority in the first round. Humala's left-wing Nationalist Party holds a plurality in the proportionally elected Congress, but a right-leaning opposition coalition nevertheless controls the chamber.
Peru looks set to take a sharp turn to the right as Humala's government is deeply unpopular, due to corruption scandals and the violent suppression of mining protests. That places Peru among similar company in South America, as leftists propelled to power by the "Pink Tide" movement discussed just above have recently either fallen or faced deep political turmoil in many other nations. The current presidential front-runner is the woman Humala defeated in 2011, Keiko Fujimori, who leads the right-wing Popular Force. Remarkably, she's also the daughter of disgraced ex-President Alberto Fujimori, who is serving multiple, lengthy prison sentences for human rights abuses and corruption. A runoff is likely.
The Daily Kos International Elections Digest is compiled by David Beard and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from James Lambert and Taniel, and is edited by David Nir.