We all know how accurate Kos’s prognostications are. Bernie would never break 30% according to Kos. Then Iowa, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska happened. And there are still a lot more states lined up that are very friendly to Bernie: the entire West Coast, including delegate-rich California, and Hawaii.
So, why the hurry, Kos? Bernie is in his most difficult part of the primary right now. After March 15th, things look better for him. If you want to endorse Hillary, just go ahead and endorse her. I would respect that even though I disagree with it. At least your endorsement would be honest. But to try to make a pretense of impartiality and being reality-based while you put your thumb on the scale, I do not respect that.
I’ve worked on several elections as a volunteer. The first presidential election I volunteered for was Clinton/Gore. I also worked on Kerry/Edwards and Obama/Biden. One thing I learned quickly — take nothing for granted.
I cannot overemphasize the importance of that. Take nothing for granted. I repeat that to myself as a mantra whenever I volunteer on a campaign. Events take surprising twists and turns. Polls change. Sometimes polls are wrong.
If you asked me right now, who’s going to be the next POTUS, I’d say it could be Clinton, Sanders, or Trump. And the idea of a Trump presidency horrifies me.
But the reality of this election is that Trump has been gaining ground. And the point is that none of the punditry class saw this coming. All of the political and media pros saw Trump’s campaign as a vanity thing. He would get tired of it in a couple weeks and go away. Clearly that did not happen.
In any election, it is foolhardy to look at a poll today and assume those numbers will remain frozen for a month, six weeks, two months until the primary gets around to that state. It is foolhardy to assume that there will be no surprises from the candidates themselves, superpacs, a terrorist attack, the economy crashing or surging, an ongoing FBI investigation, a lawsuit or a tax return.…
My crystal ball is in the repair shop. I do not know who will be the next Democratic or Republican nominee or the next POTUS. But I will make one prediction. Democratic turnout is low compared to Republicans this year. It is the reverse of 2008 when Democratic turnout was breaking records. Guess who won the White House.
This could have happened anyway; there is a pattern that the party out of power is hungry to regain the White House. This year, Republicans seem to have that fire in the belly. It is terrifying that the bright orange clown and his brownshirts are attempting a hostile take over of the Republican Party. And it looks as if they are succeeding.
I think Bernie is the best candidate in the race on either side and he is our best bet against Trump. But I take nothing for granted. I could be wrong. Perhaps Hillary is the Democrats’ best bet.
There is one thing I will predict with confidence. If Democrats have any chance of keeping the White House, we need to kindle that fire in the belly. The best way to kindle that fire is to allow people to express their passions. You do not ignite passion with authoritarian edicts like Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s there will be no more than four debates and anyone who participates in an unsanctioned debate will be banned.
And you do not kindle fire in the belly by telling Kossacks the primary is now over. Thou shalt not speak ill of Saint Hillary or thou wilt be banned.
What are you doing, Kos? Are you really that sure you know the future? I’m trying to figure out if your March 15th edict comes from a place of confidence, arrogance, fear, or obtuseness.
If you want a Democrat in the White House, then the best thing to do is engage the base, get us involved, encourage us to express our passions. Only a fool would think that ordering the base to watch what we say and be careful that we don’t offend you will lead to Democrats getting more involved, volunteering, and voting.
I am writing this, Kos, because I want passionately to stop a Trump presidency. What do you want, Kos?