On Tuesday, voters in 4 State House districts will go to the polls to pick new Representatives. Two seats are vacant after Democratic incumbents left to work in the Bevin administration. The other two seats are open because Republican Ryan Quarles left the State House to become Agricultural Commissioner and Republican Mike Harmon left the State House to become State Auditor.
The State House is currently 50D-46R. If Republicans win all 4 special elections, it would throw the chamber into turmoil. It is unknown what would occur, but it is possible that extremely partisan Democrat Greg Stumbo would be removed from the Speaker’s Chair. It is possible that there would be a power sharing agreement until November. Another issue is that Democrat Tom McKee (D-Cynthiana) is currently away from the State House because he is recovering from heart surgery. It is possible that the State House could be 50R-49D for a week or two, possibly throwing more chaos into the process.
From a policy perspective, these 4 elections could not have a bigger impact. At stake is whether Matt Bevin gets his fiscally conservative budget, whether Kentucky becomes right to work, whether the prevailing wage gets repealed, whether a number of anti-abortion laws get passed, whether various criminal justice reform bills get passed, and whether other conservative bills get passed.
The 4 special elections will set the stage for what is sure to be an extremely nasty campaign season as Democrats try to continue their 90+ year hold on the Kentucky State House. Democrats are openly warning that Republicans want to quote “turn Kentucky into another regressive Southern state” while Republicans are arguing that Democrats do not have new ideas, are holding the state back from true economic growth, and are ethically corrupt.
The special elections will give us context for what will occur in November:
- If Democrats win 4 seats and lose 0 seats, they will almost assuredly keep the State House.
- If Democrats win 3 and lose 1, they will likely keep the State House.
- If Democrats win 2 and lose 2, the State House is 50/50 in November.
- If Democrats win 1 and lose 3, they will likely lose the State House.
- If Democrats win 0 and lose 4, they are almost assuredly going to lose the State House in November.
Most prognosticators think the end result is likely to be 2R-2D or 3R-1D. Only Greg Stumbo has mentioned the possibility of Democrats winning more than 2 seats, and he said it seemed unlikely. On the flip side, few analysts think Republicans will win all 4 seats.
Follow me below for profiles of individual races.
Kentucky House District 8 – Democratic Open Seat
- 2012 President: Romney 54%, Obama 45%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 54%, Grimes 44%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 49%, Conway 48%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 53%, Knipper 47%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 60%, Beshear 40% (Westerfield’s home)
Republican baselines: 56% needed in Trigg County, 48% needed in Christian County.
This district takes in the eastern portions of Trigg County and parts of Christian County, including the city of Hopkinsville. Throughout the 20th century, Hopkinsville was a primarily agricultural town, growing crops like tobacco, soybeans, and wheat. Today, Hopkinsville has become more industrial, and is known for its production of bowling balls. There is a substantial minority population in Hopkinsville.
For most of the last century, the Democratic Party controlled county politics across rural western Kentucky. Since 1980, both Christian and Trigg County have moved to the right. Today, minorities make up a big portion of the Democratic base in Hopkinsville. These minorities have some of the lowest turnout numbers in the state, especially during midterms and special elections (This explains why Grimes could not do better than Obama here, which is a rarity in rural Kentucky).
After Matt Bevin’s victory in the 2015 gubernatorial race, Democratic State Representative John Tilley resigned to accept a position in the cabinet. Speaker Greg Stumbo complained that Tilley had not given him proper notification and that he was disrespecting his voters by going to work in a cabinet of someone in the opposite party.
The Democratic candidate is Jeff Taylor. Taylor is a retired TVA member and the current Chairman of the Christian County Democratic Party. He is black, which could help Democrats get low turn-out voters to the polls. Taylor has campaigned against repealing the prevailing wage and against right to work legislation. Taylor has raised $79K and spent $41K.
The Republican candidate is Walker Wood Thomas. Thomas is a Hopkinsville businessmen and civic leader. Thomas has been endorsed by Matt Bevin and has emphasized his pro-gun and pro-life record. Thomas is for right to work and Matt Bevin’s budget. Thomas has raised $50K and spent $343.
It is hard to know who will win on Tuesday. Of the four special elections, this race has been the most “under the radar.” Taylor has the advantage in that Democrats have a high base in this district (Even Obama received 45% of the vote). On the other hand, minority turnout is expected to be extremely low. It is quite possible that if Taylor loses the special, he could come back and win the general election in 2016 with higher turnout. Thomas, meanwhile, has run a stronger campaign and has been assisted by outside cash.
If I had to pick a winner, I’d probably give the slightest of advantages to Taylor. But it would not surprise me if Republicans can pick this one up on Tuesday.
Kentucky House District 54 – Republican Open Seat
- 2012 President: Romney 68%, Obama 30%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 62%, Grimes 35%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 63%, Conway 33%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 55%, Grimes 45%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 60%, Beshear 40%
Democratic Baseline: 57% needed in Boyle County, 35% needed in Casey County
This district is located in Central Kentucky, and takes in all of Boyle and Casey County. The biggest city in this district is Danville, considered the “Birthplace of Bluegrass.” Danville is home to Centre College, a manufacturing sector, and is a manufacturing and service center for Central Kentucky. Casey County is primarily rural and is known for its metalworking industry, its Amish community and its topographical features – “The Knobs.”
Boyle County is more Democratic on the local level, while Casey County is part of the Republican base (that is opposed to voting for even downballot Democrats) in South Central Kentucky. Because of the relatively large margin that Casey County gives Republicans, it is incredibly hard for Democrats to win here.
The candidates in the special election are two attorneys: Commonwealth Attorney Bill Noelker (D) and Attorney and former Bunning Staffer Daniel Elliott (R).
By all accounts, Noelker has run the better race. He has focused on his role as a “Victims Advocate” and his personal background as a Navy fighter pilot rather than on more divisive issues like right to work or Bevin’s budget. Noelker has been a great fundraiser, raising $94K and spending $66K. He has appeared on TV and has also devoted money to a GOTV effort.
Elliott has run a lower key campaign, focusing on fighting “crippling government overreach” and protecting “Kentucky values.” Elliott has secured the endorsement of Matt Bevin and former Representative (and now State Auditor) Mike Harmon. Elliott has appeared on television and has raised $51K and spent $44K.
Noelker’s great campaign can only carry him so far in this deep red seat. For Noelker to win, he will need a big enough margin in Boyle County to offset the huge Republican margins expected out of Casey County. This is unlikely because Daniel Elliott is from Boyle County (so Noelker will not have a home field advantage in Boyle).
District fundamentals and a strong dislike of Democrats means that Elliott has the clear advantage in this district. This is clearly the least likely seat to go to Democrats on Tuesday. I do expect this race to be closer than fundamentals might suggest.
Kentucky House District 62 – Republican Open Seat
- 2012 President: Romney 61%, Obama 37%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 40%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 52%, Conway 43%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 50%, Beshear 50%
Democratic Baselines: 57% needed in Fayette County, 48% needed in Owen County, 49% needed in Scott County
This district is located northwest of Lexington, stretching from some exurban areas in Fayette County through the town of Georgetown and rural horse farms in the “Bluegrass region.” This area has seen incredible economic (and population) growth over the past few decades, largely thanks to the Toyota Motor Manufacturing Factory in Georgetown.
Scott County is a mix of Republicans and Democrats, while Owen County is a traditional rural county controlled by Democrats. The two Fayette County precincts have a slight lean towards the Democrats.
The candidates are Democrat Chuck Tackett, a former county magistrate and 2014 candidate, and Phil Pratt, a businessman. Tackett has tried to avoid calling himself a typical Democrat, instead saying that he is “pro-family” and “pro-business.” He opposes Bevin’s budget. Pratt has campaigned with popular State Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles (who held the seat before running in 2015) and has campaigned on typical conservative principles: reducing government regulations, pro-NRA, and pro-life. Pratt has secured the endorsement of Damon Thayer, the popular State Senate Majority Leader.
This race has turned nasty in recent weeks as conservative outside groups have run ads accusing Tackett of increasing his salary while in state office.
Pratt has raised $85K and spent $52K, while Tackett has raised $36K and spent $7K.
This is a very hard race to rate. Tackett has been on the ballot before, and in a low-turnout special, that could help him win. But this seat has continued to trend to Republicans. In 2014, Ryan Quarles easily beat Tackett while Democrats were doing well in State House races in other parts of the state. Moreover, the Democratic machine in this area is weaker than it is in the coal country (perhaps because of less union members).
Based on Kentucky’s trend to the right and Pratt’s financial advantage, I give this race to Pratt on Tuesday. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if Tackett manages to win.
Kentucky House District 98 – Democratic Open Seat
- 2012 President: Romney 59%, Obama 40%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 45%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 57%, Conway 40%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 51%, Westerfield 49%
Baselines: The four precincts in Boyd County are slightly more Democratic than Greenup County
This district is located in Eastern Kentucky, and includes all of Greenup County and a few precincts in Boyd County. Greenup County is far enough north that it is not part of Eastern Kentucky’s Coal Country. Despite this, the area shares some of the same characteristics as coal country: poverty, a mountain-based topography, heavy union presence (because of steel production in nearby Ashland) and local politics run almost exclusively by the Democratic Party.
The candidates are Greenup County Commissioner Tony Quillen (R) and retired Judge Lew Nichols (D). Quillen is one of the best candidates Republicans could find in this district. He has been elected countywide since 1998 while Nichols has been out of office for a while and thus may have lower name recognition.
Both candidates have run typical campaigns, though Quillen has aggressively argued that he is against right-to-work (which plays well in this labor-heavy area). Quillen has also emphasized fighting drug abuse (a big issue in the mountains) and his opposition to the so-called “War on Coal.” Nicholls has received endorsements from most labor-affiliated groups in the county and has played up his opposition to Bevin’s budget.
This race has larger ramifications than just who wins. The Democrats have managed to prevent Republicans from winning almost every State House seat in Eastern Kentucky over the last few years, even as coal country has zoomed to the right on the national level. If Republicans win here, it might suggest that the Democratic Party’s “Eastern Kentucky Firewall” is slowly coming apart and that the Republican Party might be able to make gains in rural East Kentucky in November.
The two top Democrats in the State House, Greg Stumbo and Rocky Adkins, are from Eastern Kentucky. They have a personal incentive in continuing the trend of Eastern Kentucky electing Democrats, especially Adkins, who is facing his most competitive election in decades (and who could be exposed as being more vulnerable if Quillen wins this seat). To that end, the entire Democratic machine has spent big on this race. Stumbo, Adkins, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, and State Representative Kevin Sinnette (D-Ashland) have all appeared at events for Nichols.
The union-heavy presence in this district as well as the Democratic advantage in registration (D+22) makes me believe that Nichols is narrowly favored on Tuesday. Political prognosticators agree that of all four House races, Democrats are most likely to win HD-98. However, Quillen’s superior name recognition and history of getting elected countywide means he should not be counted out on Tuesday.