This started out as a comment in kos’s latest attempt at clarity, but I think it needs a bit more fleshing out. I can understand the want and appeal for unity, but trying to force it is going to have (and is already having) some (likely) unintended consequences.
Sure, the pundits and the Hillary campaign’s supporters really really would like it to be done with after March 15th, but that’s not an accurate date for stoppage. We Bernie supporters look at numbers too and we know that almost all of Hillary’s strongest states will have voted by then. However, it’s the states coming after that that are best for Bernie, and where, if he can, he will make up ground and possibly take the lead. It may well be up for grabs all the way til June. *At some point yes, the math may turn, but that point is not in mid March — not even close*. Calling it March 15th gives rise to some pretty big problems.
First and foremost, it fosters enmity between the supporters of the opposition factions. Yes, there is already enmity, but by forcing one side out of its vigorous campaign stance before their campaign is actually dead is asking for even more resentment of the candidate who benefits. If anything, it will foster a rise in PUMAs instead of actual unity, and really, if Hillary is the nominee, she’s gonna need all the help and unity she can get. The last thing she needs is more angry partisans refusing to vote for her in a general, but that is effect the forcibly shutting down the primary here will have.
i understand that kos doesn’t want Hillary picked apart anymore after that cuz it might hurt her, but honestly, if what is said here can actually hurt her, it worries me even more about a general. She should be able to take whatever the left gives her cuz the right will come at her stronger and a lot more recklessly. Lobbing bombs that are malicious *and* unfounded shouldn’t be allowed here in the first place, but there are plenty of criticisms that seem like bombs to her supporters (and kos) that are grounded in reality and should be lobbed. It’s a primary and we as lefties should want to have the best candidate — one who can handle the criticisms from the left. That’s what primaries are for ffs. Letting us all have our shot at democracy should be what we strive for; it can make us all the stronger for it in the end.
Second, calling an end to the primaries prematurely also gives the right wing a lot more time to act. Not knowing who they will be running against and having to somewhat prepare for two *very different* candidates means they are having to do a lot of oppo for longer and can’t uniformly deploy against a single candidate. If we give them the gift of letting it be over, they get a few extra months of flooding the airwaves with memes and lies and distortions, when repeated over and over will become believed. It’s always said that Hillary has taken everything the right has thrown at her and she has; however, she hasn’t run in a general against them yet and they will be bringing out all the stops. Why give them lead time? Tactically, it makes more sense to keep them off their game as long as we can. In previous years, when we were more unified in general, it may have been good tactics to unify early, but I think there are very few people left that think this year is anything like previous years. The conventional wisdom is a relic nowadays; operate using it at your own risk.
In short, I think this premature calling of the primaries can backfire on us badly and for the life of me I can’t understand why anyone would want to risk that outcome. It does less for unity and more for division, and it’s a gift to the right. They always liked to say that the left is a circular firing squad and calling the primaries this election year just after March 15th is a perfect example of that. Let’s not be that example.
Wednesday, Mar 9, 2016 · 2:59:32 AM +00:00
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poligirl
Case in point as to why this primary should not be declared yet: almost every poll had Hillary leading in Michigan by double digits with only one poll putting Bernie within single digits. doesn’t matter which poll aggregate you use. And some of those polls were YUGE! double digit leads.
While we may not have the results from Michigan for a little while, it’s pretty clear that what the pundits and experts think will happen does not necessarily reflect the reality on the ground.
So you naysayers, stick that math in your pipe and smoke it. We need a full day of sunshine!