From cnn.com
Michigan Exit Poll
1601 total respondents, 28% of whom identify as Independents
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This further confirms what we’ve all been seeing in the comparative head to head match-ups between Senator Sanders and Secretary Clinton versus any of the Republican candidates. It’s easy to assume the discrepancy is imaginary but this data point sheds light on why it exists and underscores that it is not.
I would appeal to anyone who prefers Senator Sanders on issues and on core values but believes they must vote “pragmatically” and reluctantly for Secretary Clinton in the frugal hope of protecting the status quo from a maniacal Republican. Some of you out there may connect with Clinton more enthusiastically on policy and values and if that is the case, I’m not here to dissuade you (today, at least :-) ). But for those of us who where I was a month or two ago, loving the message and candidate of Senator Sanders but convinced Secretary Clinton had a better shot of winning the general, I no longer believe that is the case.
Hillary’s appeal does not extend beyond the core components of the base, lifelong partisan Democrats, who are both more likely to vote for anyone with a “D” attached to their name and are also not turning out to vote in impressive rates because Hillary is not an inspiring candidate. I do not believe she will be able to motivate the base of the party anywhere near as much as her charismatic and historic predecessor Barack Obama.
She will have difficulty both courting and motivating the youth vote because for many of them, if she wins the nomination, their first experience in politics will be getting dreamcrushed by “the system/the Establishment” which will be personified not by a Republican, but by Hillary Clinton. It’s obvious to many of us that a lot Sanders supporters absolutely loathe Hillary while the converse is rarely true. Hillary supporters may dislike Sanders supporters but rarely Sanders himself. Patronizing calls for unity will cede them to apathy, third parties, or even the Republican.
Her lopsided losses among Independents are the big Red Alert here though. Those numbers are horrible. If we get behind Hillary and she loses general election, the party is done for and we will have sacrificed integrity for a “pragmatism” that got us nowhere. If Hillary loses in November, the most embarrassed person in the room will be the one who wanted to see President Sanders but voted for Hillary Clinton incorrectly believing she was the best stopgap to a Republican presidency. She’s not. And the writing is on the wall. I have never seen a candidate squander such incredible advantages in such astounding fashions, whether it was her Senate Race, her 2008 run for President, or her current race where she spent a year hovering over Iowa and New Hampshire with 50 point leads only to tie and get blown out of the water by an unknown unfunded self-avowed Democratic Socialist. Honestly, what on earth is wrong with her ability to keep it together during a campaign? Any ‘generic’ Democrat should be winning this election in the fall and yet here we are having to nervously endure a year long 2% horse race with Donald Trump or a 5-6% loss v. other Repukes that can apparently can suddenly nosedive at any moment without warning.
So I’m not going down that road. I don’t want to be on the wrong side of another inevitability that goes to hell. If you like HRC, by all means, support her. But if you don’t like her that much and you are trying to convince yourself that she’s more electable, that warrants more than a second look. “Anybody but X” is not a winning strategy. The last time Democrats nominated someone people weren’t crazy about but believed to be suitable for the GE, we got John Kerry. The last time Republicans did the same, they got Mitt Romney. The standard bearer needs charisma and an inspiring message. “No, you can’t” isn’t that message. And “Anybody but X” is a recipe for 47% of the vote. I don’t have faith that will be successful.
Thank you for reading,
-Brian