Bernie Sanders had an unexpected win in Michigan last night. This, coupled with what I seem to have gleaned from various previous primary contests, leads me to wonder about where we are headed.
Michigan has open primaries. Sanders won Michigan on the strength of support from independents. In the contests I've seen where independents could vote for Sanders, he has had a lopsided share of their votes compared to Clinton, and numerically attracted more independent votes than Trump did. Conversely, Hillary Clinton has received a lopsided share of votes from minorities. But I haven’t been doing much more than recalling impressions, so if someone has the numbers to confirm or deny, I’d like to see that put together in one place.
If my impressions are correct, though, that brings up the question: is it easier for Sanders to secure the participation of Democratic-voting minorities, who have favored Clinton in the primaries, or for Clinton to secure the votes of independents, who have preferred either Sanders or GOP candidates so far? It seems that either Democratic candidate can lay claim to a strength for the general election, but also has to own a vulnerability as well. I am not really interested in discussion about who is likely to win the primaries (it’s been done to death and causing way too much friction), but rather about where we will be situated come the general election should either candidate become the nominee. It seems that this question will determine strategy in the lead-up to the general election, and will differ depending on the candidate.
Discuss.