Long story short. I believe the role of “super-delegates” is being dramatically overstated on most media outlets. These are currently unpledged, uncounted and theoretical votes that will morph as the pledged delegate count takes shape and becomes clear at the time of the convention.
What is important, in my view is for either Hillary or Bernie to eclipse 2026 PLEDGED delegates in order to stake a claim as the “candidate of the people”. I find it hard to believe that the super delegates would defy the will of the people and circumvent the actual delegate vote once either candidate reaches 2026 pledged delegates.
So what is the math, when considering only the pledged delegates? For starters there are 4051 available pledged delegates. To clear the 50% mark, a candidate will need 2026 to claim the right to be the candidate.
Here are the current totals:
Clinton: 769
Sanders: 552
Remaining pledged delegates: 2730
# Needed to eclipse 2026:
Clinton: 1257 (46.04%)
Sanders: 1474 (53.99%)
I remain of the opinion that these are the true numbers to look at when forecasting the remainder of the race. If Sanders can grab 54% of the remaining pledged delegates, I believe the super delegates will support the will of the electorate. If Hillary maintains her lead and gets 46% of the remaining delegates, I believe the same holds true. The super-delegates are noise in the data right now and should not be included in the actual delegate race.
Also note that there are NO winner take all primaries on the democratic side and it will truly be a state by state delegate tally as both candidates race toward 2026.