In the five weeks or so since the last report, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have both inched closer to their party’s nomination, and we can now predict with a fair degree of certainty who the nominees will be on both sides—or at least, who will emerge from the primaries with the most delegates. The projections therefore are assuming a Clinton/Trump race, with some allowances for the possibility that one or both parties may nominate someone else. There is an emerging narrative that a Trump implosion is imminent...but based on the trajectory of his campaign thus far, I’ll believe that when I see it (recent polls have him leading Cruz by about ten to twenty points...that’s a lot of ground to make up).
There are several changes to report since the last update in late February, and a few states where some new information either supports the projection or muddles the picture.
Let’s look at the big picture, first: right now, Clinton has a significant advantage over Trump in national polling (close to 10%, according to aggregators Huffpost Pollster and RealClearPolitics). Given this advantage, we would expect to see Clinton winning blue states handily, holding narrow leads (at least) in swing states, and running close in many red states. And most state polls do seem to fit this pattern.
I should note that in my projections, I’m making an assumption that each nominee will ultimately win over most of their party’s base, even those who are currently skeptical. There will be some crossover votes and abstentions, but probably not as many as current polling indicates, due to the difference in tone between a primary campaign and a general-election environment. At this time, it seems that Trump will probably have more struggles winning over skeptical conservative voters than Clinton will with progressive voters, in part because there are more of them, and in part because the reasons why they don’t like him (his offensive remarks, his “New York values,” his deviation from conservative positions on many issues, etc.) may be particularly difficult to overcome.
If these assumptions are correct, then we can expect that the Clinton vs. Trump race will narrow as both sides consolidate their bases, and that despite this narrowing, Clinton will tend to stay in front. This, in part, explains why my ratings may be more confident in blue states than one might expect given the polling, and more conservative in red states.
Watch for my next update around the beginning of May. I plan on doing these monthly through the summer, and then perhaps more frequently as Election Day approaches.
Current Projection
Democrats: 303 Electoral Votes
Republicans: 235 Electoral Votes
(270 Electoral Votes required to win)
State-by-State Forecast Changes and Updates
There’s an interesting pattern to this month’s updates: very little is changing in the eastern half of the country, while many states are moving in a pro-Democratic direction out West.
New England
New Hampshire moves from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat: Clinton has led Trump in all four of the New Hampshire polls taken so far in 2016, and led by eight points or more in three of them. Sanders does poll better here than Clinton, but Republicans seem unlikely to pick up many of his disappointed supporters, should Clinton win the nomination.
Connecticut perhaps should be “Safe” at this point too, but without any recent polls (and with some uncertainty as to who the nominees will be) I’m not going to change the rating at this time. With the primary coming up in April, we’ll probably have a better sense of where this state stands.
Others: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont are Safe Democrat; Maine is Solid Democrat
Mid-Atlantic
Pennsylvania stays as Likely Democrat...for now. Three new Pennsylvania polls this month show Clinton leading Trump by anywhere from 5 to 13 points. Polling has been contradictory on the question of whether Trump or Cruz would do better in Pennsylvania. Clinton’s margin vs. Trump certainly is not in “safe” territory, but a Democratic victory in PA still seems much more likely than not.
New York stays as Safe Democrat: There has been some chatter that Trump could compete here, but both common sense and public polling would tend to support a comfortable Democratic win in the Empire State. I’m leaving this as Safe Democrat.
Delaware: see Connecticut, above.
Others: Maryland and DC (3 EVs) are Safe Democrat; New Jersey is Solid Democrat
South Atlantic
Florida remains Edge Republican: prior to the CNN/ORC poll released on March 9, Trump had led Clinton in 8 of 9 Florida polls (dating from August 2015 to March 2016). Sanders didn’t do much better—he trailed Trump in 5 out of 6 polls (both Democrats have fared a bit better vs. Ted Cruz). The CNN poll contained some good news for Clinton: she leads Trump by seven points, 50-43 (however, in this poll she trailed both Cruz and Rubio). Sanders was not tested. Since the data is mixed, and on balance more favorable for Republicans, I’ll leave Florida as Edge Republican for now...though the latest poll certainly adds to my confidence that this state will return to the Democratic column at some point.
Others: Virginia is Lean Democrat, North Carolina is Edge Republican, Georgia is Solid Republican, South Carolina is Safe Republican
South Central
West Virginia moves from Solid to Safe Republican: No new polling here, but some anecdotal evidence (based on primary voting preference, for example) that Trump may have an easier time consolidating the GOP base in Appalachia than in certain other regions, and that he may pull in a significant number of Democrats, too. The GOP might have a tougher time in WV in a three-way contest.
Texas remains Safe Republican, despite some chatter that it could be in play. I’ll be watching this closely in the coming month.
Others: Missouri and Arkansas are Solid Republican; TN, AL, KY, LA, and MS are Safe Republican
Midwest
Ohio stays Edge Democrat: two new polls this month, and both Democrats lead every Republican except Kasich (only one of the polls tested Sanders). Might be enough to move Ohio to Lean Democrat...except...there’s still a slight chance that Kasich wins the Republican nomination (at a contested convention), and perhaps a chance that he winds up as Trump’s or Cruz’s running mate (despite his protestations to the contrary). So I’m most comfortable keeping Ohio in the Edge Democrat category.
Michigan stays Solid Democrat: Good news—the latest polling in MI shows Clinton with a substantial lead over Trump! Bad news—polling in MI also showed Clinton with a substantial lead over Sanders, and we all know how that turned out…
Wisconsin stays Likely Democrat. New polls from Marquette Law and FOX Business show Clinton with double-digit leads over Donald Trump, but in the Marquette poll she is tied with Ted Cruz and trailing John Kasich. Despite the conventional wisdom that Trump could run strong in the Midwest, recent polls seem to show the opposite.
Others: Illinois is Safe Democrat, Minnesota is Solid Democrat, Iowa is Edge Democrat, Indiana is Solid Republican
Interior West
Alaska shifts from Safe to Solid Republican: I missed this last time, as Alaska wasn’t even on my radar, but a poll in late January had Trump up only five points over Clinton (Cruz and Rubio both held much larger leads). It seems as if many Republicans and right-leaning independents in several Western states have serious concerns about Trump.
Utah moves from Safe to Solid Republican: If there’s one deep red state where Trump is particularly weak, it is Utah. He is not well-liked among Utah Republicans and is actually trailing both Clinton and Sanders in a recent poll (note the high percentage of undecideds, though). I have a hard time believing that a Democrat can win Utah without a significant third-party candidate in the race, but if there is another conservative option, Trump will probably struggle here. If the Republicans go with Cruz or someone else, then expect Utah to move back to Safe Republican.
Montana changes from Safe to Solid Republican: No new polling here, but it seems reasonable to conclude that if Trump is struggling in Alaska and Utah, Montana probably is not safe either. It’s been a slightly less Republican state than its neighbors in recent cycles, and Bill Clinton actually was victorious here in 1992.
Others: all others not mentioned are Safe Republican
Southwest
Colorado flips from Edge Republican to Edge Democrat: Newer poll from Colorado paints a much rosier picture than the Quinnipiac one from November, now so dated that I think we can safely drop it from consideration. In the more recent poll, a Keating Research/Onsight Public Affairs tracking poll released March 2, Clinton held a ten-point advantage over Trump (other matchups were not tested). I’m shifting Colorado to Edge Democrat, but if additional polling supports a double-digit Democratic advantage, the state could move to Lean or even Likely Dem.
Arizona moves from Solid to Likely Republican: Clinton is tied with Trump in Arizona, according to a recent Merrill Poll (both candidates are at 38%, with 15% undecided and an additional 9% supporting neither). In other matchups, Sanders had a small lead over Trump, and Cruz had a modest lead over Clinton.
Others: New Mexico is Solid Democrat, Nevada is Likely Democrat
Pacific
Oregon moves from Solid to Safe Democrat: No new state polls here, but given the national picture, there’s no reason why the Democrats should be at all concerned about their chances in Oregon vs. Trump or Cruz. Only if the Republicans go with someone else, or if there’s a significant progressive revolt against Clinton would things be at all questionable here.
Others: California, Washington, and Hawaii are all Safe Democrat
Other Prognosticators
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, as of March 31, now shows a substantial lead for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. Sabato projects Clinton to win 347 Electoral Votes and Trump to win 191, with no toss-ups. Compared to the previous report from May 2015, seven states have shifted from toss-up status into the Democratic column, and one (North Carolina) has moved from Leans Republican to Leans Democrat.
The Blogging Caesar, as of March 26, also predicts a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump (he’s an anti-Trump conservative, but over the years I’ve found his predictions to be fair and relatively free from bias). He sees Clinton winning by a double-digit margin in the popular vote, and racking up 344 EVs to Trump’s 194. Bizarrely, he has Clinton favored in Utah while Trump is ahead in Colorado.
PredictWise has some state-based projections, so I’m adding it. Democrats are 99%-100% likely to win states worth 167 EVs (equivalent to my “Safe” rating), with 40 more EVs “Solid” (at least 90%). 33 EVs are what I would consider Likely Dem, 39 Lean Dem (Iowa, Virginia, and Pennsylvania), and 24 Edge Dem (Nevada and Ohio). Republicans have 140 Safe EVs, 51 Solid EVs, 15 Lean EVs (NC), and 29 Edge EVs (Florida). Total EVs for Democrats: 303; for Republicans: 235.
The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, another new entry on this list, has a closer race, with the Democrats favored to win 263 EVs and the Republicans 206. Four states are pure toss-ups: Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Winning any one of the four would be enough for a Democratic victory, provided that they hold onto the rest of the states in their column (last updated February 5).
The Cook Political Report hasn’t been updated since my last diary: Democrats are favored in states worth 223 EVs, Republicans ahead in states worth 206.