I was curious to find out how, and if, demographics alone could be useful in predicting the outcome of the remaining Democratic Presidential primaries and caucuses. I checked each state to see what percentage of the population was black and what percentage was Latino. I then listed the states that Clinton had won and that Bernie had won, and the percentages of black and Latino population in each state.
I then looked at the remainder of the contests, and using the statistics I’d found, predicted which contests would be won and by whom. I did this just before the Wyoming caucus, so my chart below will contain that as a ‘to be’ contest.
Sanders won 15 contests to Clinton’s 18. Six of those contests were primaries, while nine were caucuses. Clinton won 16 primaries and two caucuses.
Demographically speaking, the total black population for all of Sanders wins averaged 4.39% while that for Clinton averaged 17.94%. Only one Sanders win, Michigan (14.3%), had a black population greater than 7.7% (Oklahoma). Conversely, Clinton had only four states below 10% (Arizona 4.6%, Missouri 8.1%, Nevada 9.0% and Iowa 3.3%). Only one of those states was below Sanders overall black population average.
I then looked ate the demographic makeup of the remaining contests, based solely on black population. Seven of the remaining 19 states had a black population under four percent. Those states were Wyoming (1.7%), W. Virginia (3.6%), Oregon (2.0%), Montana (0.6%), New Mexico (2.5%), North Dakota (1.8%) and South Dakota (1.9%).
Five states (or territories) were in the high single digits. These include Rhode Island (7.5%), California (6.6%), Kentucky (8.2%), Indiana (9.5%) and Puerto Rico (7.5%).
The remaining seven states were all above 10% (from 11.3%-49.5% black population).
If this pattern holds true, with states with a higher black population going to Clinton, Clinton would easily acquire the delegates she needs to get the nomination, as the remaining states include New York (17.5%), Pennsylvania (11.5%), Maryland (30.1%), Washington D.C. (49.5%), Delaware (22.1%), Connecticut (11.3%) and New Jersey (14.7%).
Normally that would have left California, R.I., Kentucky, Indiana and Puerto Rico in the toss up category. But now I refined my list by adjusting it with the Latino population. The average combined black/Latino population for Sanders was 12.52% while that for Clinton was 29.55% (not counting P.R.).
Sanders had only four wins where the combined b/l population was greater than 15%. Clinton had only one win where the b/l population was less than 15%.
Which of the remaining states fits into this scenario and where? If this holds true Sanders would pick up Wyoming, W. Virginia, Oregon, Montana, and N. and S. Dakota. Kentucky would lean Sanders, at 11.2% combined. Indiana would be a tossup (15.5%) and R.I. (20.5%) would lean Clinton. Pennsylvania, at only 19.5%, would go to Clinton because of the higher black population.
Clinton would pick up New York (35.5% combined), Maryland (38.1%), D.C. (68.5%), Delaware (29%), Connecticut (25.3%), California (44.6%), Puerto Rico, New Jersey (32.7%) and New Mexico (49.5%).
Conclusions based on demographics alone:
Sanders will take Wyoming (he did), W. Virginia, Oregon, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and probably Kentucky.
Rhode Island and Indiana are toss-ups.
Clinton would win Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland, D.C., Delaware, Connecticut, California, Puerto Rico, New Jersey and New Mexico.
The problem that Sanders has is that he’ll probably have to run the table in the states, including the ones I’ve said Clinton will win. He’ll have to win by a 57% margin in every state to get enough delegates to get the nomination. Stranger things have happened.
Final note: After coming up with my list based on demographics, I went to several sites on the internet like Pew and fivethirtyeight, and looked at their predictions based on state by state polling. With the exception of New Mexico, all of their polls confirmed that Clinton is leading in the states with the highest b/l population. They rate N.M. as a toss-up,
I like both candidates. Whichever one wins will be, as Sanders says, “1000 times better than any Republican”. Vote your heart in the primaries, then vote your party in the general election. At stake is the Supreme Court, control of the Senate, marriage equality, Social Security, gerrymandering, gay rights, one man one vote. We know where the Republicans stand.