Connecticut was a hotly contested state in the 2008 primary (Eventually won by Barack Obama by 4 points on Super Tuesday) and it’s no different this year.
Only toplines so far as far as I can see, but according to this poll by Emerson, Clinton is currently up 6, 49-43, with two weeks to go until CT votes on the same day as Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Maryland and Delaware. CT is of course a New England state but with a lot of New York transplants so it may be no surprise to see it polling somewhere between Hillary’s nail-biter win in Massachussetts and her apparently solid polling lead in New York.
Hillary will be hoping to bring out major turnout from minorities in big urban areas like Hartford, New Haven and Bridgeport where there has long been a well-developed Democratic organisation while Bernie will be hoping to do well in more rural areas especially in the north, and for big turnout from UConn, Yale and the State colleges. Hillary backers can take heart in her being ahead even ahead of what looks like a probable win in New York, while Bernie fans can hope that they can close the relatively small gap — or even that Emerson is off, as it has been before.
Breakdowns here; media.wix.com/…
Sanders leads Clinton 58% to 39% among voters age 18-34. Clinton holds a 51% to 42% edge in the 35-54 age group and is up 59% to 41% among voters 55-74. Gender is a significant factor in the Democratic contest, with male voters preferring Sanders over Clinton 51% to 42% and women favoring the former Secretary of State 55% to 36%. Sanders is winning 41% to 35% among those 75 and over. Connecticut’s 55 pledged Democratic delegates are allocated proportionally, based on the primary vote.
Some interesting quirks there; the Sanders lead among young voters is significantly smaller than it typically is, which might give hope to Sanders fans that the sampling is off — but it’s probably cancelled out by a significantly-smaller-than-normal Sanders deficit among the elderly — indeed this poll suggests he wins the oldest voters, which would be deeply unusual. I’m not seeing a race breakdown but if someone points one out, I’ll add it.
On the GOP side, Trump is sitting at 50% — exactly what he would need to score all of CT’s delegates, as it becomes Winner Take All at 50.
CT is a closed primary and votes April 26th.