Leading Off:
● NY State Senate: On Tuesday, voters will go to the polls for a hotly-contested special election to replace ex-state Senate Republican leader Dean Skelos, who was recently found guilty on corruption charges. Obama carried this Long Island seat 54-46, but Republicans still do well downballot here.
If Democrats take this seat, they'll have a nominal 32-31 majority. However, five Democrats belong to the Independent Democratic Conference, which is still allied with the GOP. The group infamously caucused with the Republicans and allowed Skelos to continue to run the Senate in 2012, even though the GOP had a minority of the seats then. A sixth senator, Simcha Felder, also caucuses with the GOP even though he continues to identify as a Democrat. Still, a pickup will give Team Blue a better chance to flip the state Senate in November and have actual control of the chamber.
The candidates are Democratic Assemblyman Todd Kaminsky, a former federal prosecutor (and a grand-nephew of comedian Mel Brooks), and Republican Chris McGrath, a personal injury lawyer and a former head of the local bar association. Kaminsky is out with a spot that emphasizes his work fighting corruption and securing a tax cut. Kaminsky also recently received a high-profile endorsement from Bill Clinton. McGrath has also been emphasizing corruption and taxes, specifically attacking New York City legislative leaders. Both contenders are well-funded: As of April 4, Kaminsky held a small $296,000 to $282,000 cash-on-hand edge.
This race will coincide with both parties' presidential primaries, which could make turnout unpredictable. Democrats frequently have trouble bringing their voters out for special elections, but the Hillary Clinton-Bernie Sanders fight will help turn out more casual voters. However, Republicans have been disproportionately turning out for their presidential race. More Republicans showed up for the presidential primary earlier this month in Democratic-leaning Wisconsin, which helped them keep control of a state Supreme Court seat.
Unlike in Wisconsin, the candidates' party affiliations will be listed in the state Senate race, which could encourage voters who are only interested in the presidential fight not to just skip over this contest. However, as Dlines points out, there's one weird quirk. Registered Democrats and Republicans in SD-09 will be offered two different ballots, one with their party's presidential candidates and one with the state Senate contenders; anyone who shows up on Election Day who isn't registered with one of the two major parties will only receive the state Senate ballot.
Voters participating in both contests will need to put their presidential ballot in the machine marked "President," while the state Senate ballots will go in the "State Senate" machine. This arrangement could definitely confuse people who only showed up for the presidential race and lead to some extra drop-off.
1Q Fundraising: Be sure to check out our first quarter Senate fundraising chart, which we'll be updating as new numbers come in. We'll also have our House fundraising chart out next week.
● IN-Sen: Todd Young (R): $750,000 raised, $1.33 million cash-on-hand
● MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R-inc): $1.25 million raised, $5.4 million cash-on-hand; Jason Kander (D): $1.3 million raised, $2.8 million cash-on-hand
● NV-Sen: Catherine Cortez Masto (D): $2 million raised, $2.5 million cash-on-hand
● PA-Sen: Pat Toomey (R-inc): $2.5 million raised, $9.2 million cash-on-hand
Senate:
● FL-Sen: Last month, there was a pretty absurd report that Republican operatives, desperate to get Ben Carson out of the presidential race, promised him "goodies" if only he would just run for the Senate instead. Carson soon bailed on the presidential contest and while he called the idea of a Senate run "not something that I want to do," he didn't quite rule it out. However, Carson endorsed Rep. Ron DeSantis on Thursday; if Carson is one-tenth as awful as a surrogate for DeSantis as he has been for Donald Trump, the congressman's primary rivals will be most pleased by this development.
● PA-Sen: Joe Sestak is out with another TV spot ahead of the April 26 Democratic primary. This one touts his endorsement from Philadelphia Inquirer and features plenty of excerpts of the editorial praising him as principled and experienced. It also takes a brief shot at primary rivals Katie McGinty and John Fetterman, with the narrator quoting the Inquirer saying that Sestak has "a deep understanding of government and foreign policy that McGinty and Fetterman cannot match." Various pictures and pieces of footage of Sestak play in the background, including a photo of Sestak with then-President Bill Clinton from his time in the Navy.
McGinty has been rolling out TV spots reminding voters that she's the Democrat who has been endorsed by President Barack Obama. Obama himself hasn't appeared in any of them yet, though he just did a minute-long radio commercial. Obama lays out her progressive message and concludes, "When I needed someone to fight for me in Pennsylvania, Katie McGinty was there."
Gubernatorial:
● NH-Gov: This week, Executive Councilor Chris Sununu earned an endorsement from Scott Brown, the former Massachusetts senator and Team Red's 2014 Senate nominee here. It's unclear if Brown has any real pull with primary voters in his adopted state, though he may help provide Sununu with access to national donors.
● WV-Gov: Republican state Senate President Bill Cole won't learn the identity of his Democratic foe until after the May 10 three-way primary, but national Republicans aren't waiting that long to go on the offensive. The Republican Governors Association has reserved $600,000 in TV time in the lead up to the primary, though none of their ads have been released yet.
It's possible that they'll use the buy to promote Cole, but the Associated Press speculates that they'll instead attack billionaire Jim Justice, whom polls show is the frontrunner against ex-U.S. Attorney Booth Goodwin and state Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler next month. What little general election polling there is shows Justice performing noticeably better against Cole than either of his intra-party foes: If the RGA is seeing similar numbers, it makes sense that they'd attack him now to try and turn Democratic primary voters against him.
House:
● FL-04: The potential field to succeed retiring Rep. Ander Crenshaw in this safely red seat got a bit smaller on Thursday, with ex-Jacksonville Mayor John Delaney and state Sens. Travis Hutson and Aaron Bean all taking their names out of contention. However, Duval County Tax Collector Michael Corrigan publicly expressed interest for the first time. Florida Politics also says that wealthy state Rep. Jay Fant is considering, though he hasn't said anything about his plans yet.
No major candidates have launched bids yet, but ex-Jacksonville Sheriff John Rutherford sounds very likely to get in. Mayor Lenny Curry and several prominent local donors have all said that they'd support a Rutherford campaign, and he probably has the best chance to clear the field. State Rep. Lake Ray, former Jacksonville City Council President Richard Clark, and Duval County Property Appraiser Jerry Holland have also each talked about getting in. The filing deadline is in June.
● FL-06: Ric Keller… now that's a name I haven't heard in a long time. A long time. On Thursday, the former Republican congressman announced that he would seek this open seat. Keller isn't the most logical candidate here. He only represented 8 percent of this district in the House, and he's been out of politics since his 52-48 loss to Democrat Alan Grayson in 2008. Keller's standing with Republican voters wasn't exactly great when he left Congress either: He only won renomination that year 53-47 against attorney Todd Long.
Keller opened his campaign by proclaiming that he's running against the GOP establishment, which is a pretty strange tactic for a former congressman. Keller did occasionally show some independence from his party's leadership during his four terms in the House: Keller voted against the Bush administration's troop surge in Iraq in 2007, though he soon proclaimed that the surge was a success. In DC, Keller was probably best known for the so-called Cheeseburger Bill, which sought to protect companies like McDonald's from lawsuits over obesity claims. Keller's bill passed the House twice, but never made it through the Senate.
Keller isn't going to have a clear path to victory in the late August GOP primary. Keller will face state Reps. Fred Costello and David Santiago and Navy veteran Brandon Patty in this Orlando-area seat. Romney only won 52-47 here, but the likely Democratic nominee, state Rep. Dwayne Taylor, barely raised any cash during his first few months in the race (Taylor's first quarter report is not available yet). Daily Kos Elections rates this race as Safe Republican, though that could change if Taylor gets his act together or if a stronger candidate emerges before the June filing deadline.
● MD-08: The April 26 primary for this safely blue seat is just around the corner, and the state branch of AFSCME has endorsed state Sen. Jamie Raskin. Raskin's main opponents are former hotel executive Kathleen Matthews and very free-spending businessman David Trone.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.