The state of the presidential contest is … not close.
Conventional wisdom is that general election polling this far out is suspect at best—the candidates might not be fully introduced to the general public, hurt primary feelings can skew results as supporters of defeated candidates claim they won’t vote for their party’s nominee (they’ll come back), the general public still hasn’t fully tuned in, and the attack machines from both parties haven’t fully geared up.
Things might be different putting these two candidates up, since everyone knows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, and their favorability ratings already reflect those of candidates who’ve been put through the wringer. Clinton, of course, has over a generation of being “wrung” by the Republican Noise Machine, and Trump seems hell-bent on putting himself through the ringer, no outside assistance necessary thank you very much!
Now, we still have supporters of other primary candidates saying they won’t vote for their guy. In Pennsylvania, for example, 15 percent of Bernie Sanders supporters said they would not vote for Clinton in the general. Meanwhile, 22 percent of Republicans said they would not vote for Trump. Typically, I’d say that the vast majority of those people are lying (whether they realize it or not), and they’ll all come home. But with Trump, there’s an actual chance that a significant percentage of those people really won’t vote for him. I wouldn’t bank on it, and thus I’d expect the Clinton v. Trump numbers to narrow on this factor alone. But it’s not out of the realm of possibilities.
Finally, the general public has not fully tuned in. Of course, the intensity of both primaries has somewhat mitigated that, and Trump is Trump, but in the aggregate polling, 12 percent of respondents remain undecided. How that’s possible? Don’t look at me for an answer. But regardless, there will be a campaign, and people will need to be persuaded. And Trump will snag the racist xenophobic contingent amongst those, and Clinton will grab the rest.
But none of those people will be swayed by TV ads. Billions will be spent to change zero votes. Instead, Trump will say his Daily Stupid Thing, and people will either cheer on his bigotry because he “says what he means!”, or they’ll be utterly repulsed and slot in with Clinton. Lucky for us, it takes less effort to get to a majority when you’re sitting at 46 percent than when you’re having trouble cracking 40 percent. Odds are, the bigots are a tiny minority of the remaining undecided.
At that point, it all becomes a base-turnout game. Latino voter registration is skyrocketing, the youth are heavily pro-Clinton, and women are certainly disgusted by The Donald. The early pieces are slotting into place for what might not just be a solid victory, but an epic one, one that could reshuffle Congress and win back governorships (while holding endangered ones). Even more exciting, Trump could do to the national Latino vote what Pete Wilson did for the California one—wake it up and turn it into a long-term electoral force. We do that, states like Arizona, Georgia, and Texas become purple, we lock down heavily Latino states like Nevada and Florida, and it becomes easier to win purple states like North Carolina.
But all of this is obviously early, and lots can and will happen over the next six months and change. It’s gonna be crazy!
Poll |
Date |
CLINTON |
Trump |
YouGov |
4/22-26 |
43 |
40 |
3/26-29 |
45 |
41 |
Suffolk/USA Today |
4/20-24 |
50 |
39 |
- |
- |
- |
NBC/SurveyMonkey |
4/18-24 |
44 |
36 |
4/11-17 |
48 |
39 |
GWU/Battleground |
4/17-20 |
46 |
43 |
- |
- |
- |
Ipsos/Reuters |
4/16-20 |
44 |
33 |
4/9-13 |
43 |
34 |
Morning Consult |
4/15-17 |
46 |
37 |
4/8-11 |
46 |
37 |
NBC/WSJ |
4/10-14 |
50 |
39 |
3/3-6 |
51 |
38 |
Fox |
4/11-13 |
48 |
41 |
3/20-22 |
49 |
38 |
CBS |
4/8-12 |
50 |
40 |
- |
- |
- |
Remember, the most accurate poll is the aggregate of polls. And looking at patterns, amazing how Trump is legitimately stuck in the high 30s, barely hitting 40 a couple of times. Clinton’s numbers are up and down depending on the pollster, but Trump? Consistently in the gutter. That’s a number that’ll bear watching, as it’ll tell us if there’s that many bigot undecideds left, and whether the “I won’t vote for Trump in the general” Republicans really follow through with their threats.