ABC News has some exit polling data from last night’s Wisconsin primary and a few highlights follow. These point to some considerable candidate strengths for Bernie Sanders and some real weaknesses for Hillary Clinton
On Excitement
Excitement
In contrast to divisions on the GOP side, about three-quarters of Democratic primary voters are “excited” or “optimistic” about the prospect of a Sanders presidency, as are seven in 10 about a Clinton presidency. Excitement, though, is about twice as high for Sanders than for Clinton.
The excitement for Bernie Sanders has been there all along, and is indicated very strongly by the size and enthusiasm of his campaign crowds and by the large number of small donors; Hillary doesn’t even come close on these counts. In addition, people are inspired by Bernie’s much more hopeful, grass roots, change oriented message.
On Candidate Qualities
Qualities
Sixty-three percent of Wisconsin Democratic primary voters said they were looking chiefly for a candidate who “cares about people like me” or who “is honest and trustworthy” (eight points more than average in previous contests) and Sanders won these groups by wide margins, with 70 percent and 82 percent support, respectively, exceeding his usual levels in both cases. Clinton came back with broad support among voters who cared more about experience or electability.
Fewer, four in four in 10, call electability or experience most important, voters among whom Clinton’s dominated. Combined, honesty/empathy voters have outnumbered experience/electability voters on average in 2016, with an even larger than usual margin in preliminary exit poll results today.
Bernie has earned his reputation for honesty and caring about average voters, and Hillary, with her Wall Street, Dem Party establishment and Superpac connections clearly lags behind when it comes to being perceived as down to earth and truly populist and progressive; people see her as much more of a shape shifting politician. And as for the electability argument, it is pure spin, as Sanders outpolls Clinton on who can beat a Republican.
on Honesty
Honesty
Clinton has had problems with views of her honesty and which are apparent today in Wisconsin. Just six in 10 Wisconsin Democratic voters say she’s honest and trustworthy, vs. about nine in 10 who say so about Sanders. That’s among Sanders’ highest honesty ratings in any primary to date, even approaching his rating in his home state of Vermont.
These findings pretty much speak for themselves. Hillary and her supporters see any attempts by Sanders to contrast himself with her as a “personal attack,” but her saying so doesn’t necessarily make it true. Anyway, Hillary really has a problem here, and no amount of spin from her side will fix this. You should know that when your insistence that you don’t think that you’ve lied turns you into a punch line on the late night talk shows, or on SNL, this reputation is probably not easy to fix
Voter Demographics
Sanders won whites under age 45 by a huge margin, with 78 percent support in preliminary exit poll results, among his best results in this group to date. Also, as in other Northern states – but not in the South – he ran competitively among young nonwhites, winning them, 54-44 percent. Sanders also won particularly broad support from men, 62 percent – better than anywhere save New Hampshire and Vermont.
Whites accounted for 84 percent of voters in Wisconsin; their large numbers hurt Clinton, given her vast support (78 percent) among nonwhites age 45 and older. But, additionally, she lost whites by bigger-than-usual margins, reflecting Sanders’ resonance on personal attributes and liberal policies. Sanders has done famously well among young voters in contests to date, winning 70 percent of voters age 18-29, vs. Clinton’s 73 percent among seniors. At 17 percent so far in 2016, turnout about young voters could end up its highest in Democratic primaries since 1976, up from 14 percent in 2008, 9 percent in 2004 and 8 percent in 2000. They make up a more than one in 10 Wisconsin voters in preliminary results.
So, it looks that younger voters are, indeed, turning out to vote; perhaps they should not be condescended to after all. And Wisconsin also demonstrated that Bernie has significant support among non-white voters.
The Inequality Issue
Economics
Three-quarters of Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin are worried about the direction of the economy. Nearly four in 10 expect life for the next generation of Americans to be worse than life today, vs. only a third who think it’ll be better. Sanders has done better among those who are worried about the economy in previous primaries.
Sanders benefited as well from a focus on income inequality – three in 10 cited it as their top issue of concern, vs. an average of 25 percent in previous races. And he won nearly two-thirds of those who picked it.
This is the big takeaway for me, as it is at the heart of Bernie’s message to the people. Sanders supporters know that under a President Hillary Clinton, we will get, at best, incrementalism and the status quo, rather than to have this most central of issues seriously addressed. I was reminded of this today when I caught a glimpse of the mudslinging toward Sanders by Mort Zuckerman, the superwealthy centrist real estate mogul and publisher of the Daily News tabloid; he’s perfect for Hillary, as is Michael Bloomberg, former mayor and protector of Wall Street and the privileged position of the 0.01% hedge fund crowd. Anyway, now on to NY, where Bernie is a native son and a child of working class Brooklyn and from a time and place when upward mobility for the city’s working class was a real possibility; that history, too, is at the heart and soul of the candidate with the populist message who is seen as honest, trustworthy and also, as a potentially good commander in chief.