So, in discussing the results of Bernie’s victory last night, I think it might be useful to review what happened in the 2008 primary between Obama and Hillary.
From the times: politics.nytimes.com/...
Some interesting tidbits:
- Hillary won SD, PR, OR, WV, IN, PA, OH, RI, TX, AS (American Samoa), AZ, AR, CA, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OK, TN, FL, NV, NH
To any casual observer, if you gave them that swing-statey list of wins, they’d say she had the nom for sure. BUT IT WAS NOT ENOUGH for Hillary to get the right number of delegates.
- Of the last primaries held, Obama won Montana by a healthy margin (15%) but that same day Hillary won South Dakota and Puerto Rico 2 days before
- Of the contests that followed March, Hilllary won nine, compared to Obama’s six, with a split in Guam
- Three of Obama’s victories in this period were in pretty red states: MS, WY, MT. In fact, he won Kansas by a huge margin!
That’s is real momentum there! She grabbed numerous key swing states from March to June! BUT IT WAS NOT ENOUGH for Hillary to get the right number of delegates.
- If we look at the PLEDGED delegate count alone, it ended up being Hillary 1592 to Obama 1661, a difference of a whopping 69 delegates.
- A survey of super delegates indicated a difference of 114.5
- Obama beat Hillary by 17 points in Wisconsin
- Hillary won New York by 17 points
- Hillary won New Jersey by 20 points
BUT IT WAS NOT ENOUGH for Hillary to get the right number of delegates.
So what are the take-home points here:
- It is all in the total number of delegates, not the wins
- Momentum is not always sufficient to seal the deal. Hillary did better than Obama in most of the later contests
- It is BS who who is viable and who is not by reading who wins red states
- If you read the comments by the overwhelming number of superdelegates, they said they were going with what their state wanted and the popular vote
I think these numbers belie some of the “absolute truthes” spoken here in the past few days.