I hate to distract you from the nauseating wave of Clintonian faux indignation over Bernie’s campaign speech rhetoric. But, while Clinton’s camp makes much ado about nothing, polls are suggesting that Bernie Sanders is about to win the nomination and the presidency.
Recent Performance vs. Early Polling
For more than a month now, we’ve watched Bernie Sanders close double-digit polling deficits in state after state. Two weeks prior to the actual vote, polls had Sanders losing:
— Utah (he won by 59 points) www.realclearpolitics.com/…
— Alaska (he won by 63 points)www.realclearpolitics.com/…
— Michigan by over 20 points (he won by 1.5 points) www.realclearpolitics.com/…
— Oklahoma (he won by 10 points) www.realclearpolitics.com/...
— Kansas (he won by 34 points) www.realclearpolitics.com/…
— Colorado (he won by 18 points) www.realclearpolitics.com/…
— Minnesota (he won by 23 points) www.realclearpolitics.com/... and
— Wisconsin (he won by 13 points) www.realclearpolitics.com/…
Two weeks out, polls also indicated:
— a 30 point loss in Arizona (he lost by 17) www.realclearpolitics.com/… and
— a 40 point loss in Illinois (he lost by 2).
This is why Sanders supporters should be extremely heartened by recent poll results, nationally and in New York, Pennsylvania, California, and Maryland.
The National Picture
Nationally, the three most recent polls show the race essentially tied. Sanders’ average national polling is at the very highest it’s been all campaign, and rising steadily. www.realclearpolitics.com/... A tie nationwide, which includes the south where Sanders fares the worst against Clinton, means that Sanders is winning by a good margin in the North and West where most of the remaining primary states are located. A tie nationwide also means that he is gaining ever larger shares of the demographic groups that were once very lopsided towards Clinton.
In the southern states, Clinton won African Americans, roughly 78-22. In Florida and Texas, Clinton won Latinos roughly 69-31. If that pattern were repeated in the Northeast, it would lead to 20-30 point victories for Clinton in NY, Penn, Conn., NJ, and Cal. and 30-50 point victories in Maryland and Delaware. However, there is mounting evidence that in the Northeast and California, Sanders support with Black Voters is in the mid-30s and growing. His vote share amongst Hispanic voters (by the way, this is not a monolithic voting block. There is no indication that Puerto Rican and Dominican immigrants in the Northeast vote the same as Mexican and Central American immigrants in the South or Cuban immigrants in Florida) appears to be close to 50% in the Northeast. And, he has maintained his leads with White, Asian, Middle-Eastern, and Native Americans. In short, he is on track to win the nomination, and the presidency.
Recently, Nate Silver, in an attempt to paint a very dire picture of Sanders’ path to victory, posted a list of targets that Sanders needed to meet in order to win the majority of pledged delegates. fivethirtyeight.com/... Mind you, this was before Sanders took 4 additional delegates in Arizona and 2-5 additional delegates in Nevada, so there is that much wiggle room. He’ll have to cough up 2 of those wiggles right away, because according to Silver’s targets, he needed 50 delegates in Wisconsin and he received only 48. Sanders will easily meet Silver’s target of 11 delegates in Wyoming on Saturday and might even pick up one extra if turnout is as high as it’s been in similar states. Where the targets become questionable is in the Northeastern states where Sanders has to win many states and keep his losses to a minimum in others. Fortunately, recent polling seems to indicate that Sanders is on his way to doing just that.
New York
In my analysis, whoever wins NY, wins the nomination. Not because NY itself is so all-important, but for what it means demographically speaking about the remaining states to vote. If Sanders can close the current 10 or 12 point gap in NY (down from 20-40 point gaps) www.realclearpolitics.com/…, that means that the fundamental demographics of January and February, which naysayers like Kos have been citing for their premature Sanders eulogies, are no longer applicable in April and beyond, and Sanders will win the most pledged delegates when all is said and done. Nate says Sanders needs to beat Clinton by 4 in New York to meet his target of 128 delegates. In reality, delegate math is a little more complex, as delegates are divided according to the voting in each district as well as the statewide vote. If after the dust settles in New York, Sanders delegate total is about 125 or higher, you can pretty much eat the egg off Kos’ face for breakfast, because Sanders is actually doing what Kos decreed was impossible.
Pennsylvania
According to Nate Silver, Sanders must win Pennsylvania by about 7 points to be on track for the nomination. A week ago, the polling would suggest such a goal was laughable, with most polls showing Sanders behind by 20-40 points. However, things have apparently changed, because three weeks prior to the election, prior to most campaigning and advertising in the state, the latest poll has Clinton ahead by only 6 points. www.realclearpolitics.com/... So, assuming that Sanders can continue his pattern of making major gains in the week prior to the election, it’s quite likely that Sanders will either meet or exceed his Pennsylvania target.
Maryland
Today’s WaPo poll showing Sanders losing Maryland by 15 points three weeks before the vote is awesome news for Bernie Sanders! It may seem counterintuitive to celebrate a 15 point deficit (down from 30 points a month ago) www.realclearpolitics.com/.... But, Maryland has the 4th Blackest electorate in the nation. en.wikipedia.org/... In states with similar Black populations (Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Louisiana), Sanders got creamed by 30-50 points! Silver says that Sanders has to keep his loss in Maryland to 9 points in order to stay on track for the nomination. But, with three weeks to go, a 15 point deficit suggests that Sanders could even win Maryland outright!
California
With two months to go until the primary, Sanders is already within a dozen or so points www.realclearpolitics.com/... and will likely close that gap, like everywhere else, and cruise to a comfortable west coast victory when campaigning in the state starts in earnest. As a Northern Californian, I can tell you that it’s all about Sanders here and we’re just getting started. Even amongst the Black voices that I’ve been hearing, it’s a lot of criticism of Clinton, if not a full-throated endorsement of Sanders. If Sanders falls slightly behind his targets in other states, he may have an opportunity to make up for them in delegate-heavy, liberal, west-coast California. I look forward to seeing what happens here.
In summation, Sanders has been steadily improving nationally and in all demographic groups since the campaign began. Although he was far behind at half-time, reports of his demise were highly exaggerated. His continual improvement has led to him dominating the first quarter of the second half and he only needs to stay on the same trajectory to win the fourth quarter and the game. Of course, we now have over 60 consecutive national polls showing that Sanders kills either Trump or Cruz (by much bigger margins than Clinton).
Sanders crushes Trump: www.realclearpolitics.com/…
Sanders crushes Cruz: www.realclearpolitics.com/…
Clinton not so much: www.realclearpolitics.com/...
So, winning the nomination means winning the presidency and along with it a wave of progressive elected officials and voter initiatives swept in by Sanders rising tide of highly excited voters.