I am a 13 year-plus member of Daily Kos. I have borrowed a friend’s time machine and now will provide you with details of the fall campaign. If you want to be surprised, stop reading now (spoilers ahead!)
Alright, here’s the scoop. While Donald Trump will win New York (handily) and a few other eastern states (Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey), he will enter the Republican Convention at least 100 to 200 delegates short. After the first ballot, Republican leaders (the “Establishment”) will consider their options. Ted Cruz would lose terribly in November (and perhaps bring down Senate and House candidates as well). John Kasich, while their strongest candidate, would be unacceptable to many Republican Tea Party folks. The other Republican candidates (Bush, Rubio, Paul, etc.) are losers who couldn’t win states or delegates. So it will come down to picking someone who did not actually run. Of those, Ryan is probably the strongest candidate (Mitt Romney??? really?) Since Hillary will get the Democratic nomination, the Republicans wiill feel compelled to nominate a female vice-presidential candidate. Of the potential candidates, Nicki Haley is probably the most well-known and strongest candidate (Susana Martinez, for example, is largely unknown).
Of course both Trump and Cruz will be furious. Cruz will finally, reluctantly, agree to go along, as will most of his supporters (like they would really let Hillary win). Trump won’t go along, but, honestly, he didn’t want to be the GOP nominee anyway. He will complain, maybe even encourage a write-in campaign, but he won’t go to the hassle of organizing a third party campaign (it would be too late in many states by then anyway).
So the campaign will be Ryan/Haley against Clinton and . . . .After the animosity between Clinton and Sanders in the final months of the campaign, Clinton will want to bring in as many Sanders supporters as possible. To the surprise of many (but not all), she will choose Elizabeth Warren as her Vice-Presidential nominee.
More on the race later, but suffice it to say, it will be close (within 5 points) and will hinge, in part, on turnout and the state of the country on election day.
Thoughts and comments are appreciated!