I have noticed that I have gotten a lot of traffic from Dailykos. I really started my entire paradigm of political engagement here at Dailykos back in the Obama 2004 convention speech era. I used to be very active here but took a long hiatus. I figured I would return, and post some of my benchmarks in an easy to read and understand format here on Kos! Feel free to ask me any questions. As we have grown, we’ve gained a partner in DecisionDesk HQ and have even done our first exit poll, which got a lot of steam on blogging communities like this one when it revealed some trouble with Sanders supporters not voting downticket in Wisconsin.
Throughout this primary season and beyond, I will be posting models like this that allow you to follow along with on primary night and not act confused. Watch with purpose. That is the point of all of this, to be able to say with data and analytics to back it up that one candidate or another is doing good or bad, using hard metrics. The use of the model is in knowing whether areas yet to come favor your candidate or disfavor them. You can make predictions on the final margin of victory early, with only 10-15% reporting.
I want to make sure that everyone is clear, this baseline model is becoming predictive, but its true value is not in its state-wide predictions. Polling is not yet adequate enough to get reliable county-by-county predictions that will be accurate to any degree as much as the state polls are. That being said, the demographics can be extrapolated, and the counties and precincts can be modeled. What this does is try to say how a candidate is EXPECTED to do, given the demographics, crosstabs, and previous results this year as well as past contests. If a candidate consistently is beating their baselines, you can bet they will beat their model baseline as well.
All race dot maps are courtesy of Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia (Dustin A. Cable, creator).
Because of character limits, I will not be able to post ALL of my benchmarks here. If you want to read the whole list, go to Benchmark Politics.
Here are the actual benchmarks for New York's most populous counties:
Expected Baseline: 57% Clinton - 43% Sanders
General New York Writeup
After all the hype and excitement, we finally come to the New York primary. This is without a doubt the most crucial primary to date considering how many delegates are at stake and how highly contested the state is as a whole. Sanders was born in Brooklyn however he does not claim New York as his home state which would make it similar to the relationship Clinton had with Illinois. Clinton was a senator in New York and considers the state her current home so for all intents and purposes we will be referring to it as “Clinton’s home state”. A win for Sanders (win being defined as +-3% margin for either side) would be a big indicator to a fundamental change in the race as there is a path moving forward for Sanders to reach a plurality as long as he wins New York by a 3-4% margin. Clinton on the other hand would all but wrap up the primary season with a double digit victory as it would further her delegate lead and make neighboring states like Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey look like safe wins for her. One thing to consider is that the primary is a closed primary, and it has some of the worst "closed primary" rules in the nation, meaning you had to switch parties up to 6 months ago to be considered able to vote here. All in all, the race is VERY tough for Sanders in the state.
Expected Spread: Clinton +38
Brooklyn is the largest borough in New York City and based on demographics, ideology, as well as trust in a former Senator, it looks to be one of the best for Clinton. The demographics themselves are quite incredible for Clinton. Over 50% of the electorate is African American or non-white Hispanic. Sanders has performed quite poorly in primaries where the electorate is diverse and the model suggests that trend will continue without a hitch. The voters are young with a decent amount having a Bachelor’s Degree, but that will most likely not be nearly enough for Sanders to pull off an upset of any kind in Brooklyn.
Nearly half of the people who live in Kings also work here so the local economy is a big issue. These workers often times are employed by back office operations out of Manhattan. Back office operations are essentially the corner stone of any business. These are the guys and girls that ensure the company actually functions: hard working, middle class citizens. As with a lot of the state, manufacturing is quite crucial in Brooklyn as well. Where voters stand on trade agreements and how they affect the economy and job creation will be an important factor.
New York as a whole has been a democratic stronghold for quite some time which definitely favors Clinton who has done exceptionally well with democratic voters. Sanders has been able to win some key states with the help of big margins with independents and republican voters. Since New York is a closed primary however this will not be something he can really depend on as the deadline to change affiliation in New York was last year. The model has been adjusted slightly for closed contests considering how well Clinton has done in them and we expect Kings to go quite close to the projected benchmark. If there is any sort of major fluctuation here it will almost certainly translate across the city as a whole.
Expected Spread: Clinton +16
Queens is the largest, easternmost borough in NYC and has the appearance of being a more competitive area than neighboring Kings. The model suggests the results will be somewhat close but Clinton should enjoy a rather comfortable win here. In 2008 this was one of her safest areas in New York where she took over 60% of the vote against then Senator Obama. If Clinton’s constituents from 2008 are faithful to her then she should have no problem not only meeting this benchmark but possibly out performing it a little. The electorate is made up of over 50% non-white voters however there is a significantly lower population of African American’s in comparison to Kings which is definitely a favorable statistic for Sanders. Voters in Queens boast the highest median age for the city as a whole as well as an above average median income.
In terms of the issues, trade will once again be important and on the minds of voters as it is one of the biggest industries. These workers most likely have at worst a neutral view on trade that favors towards support given that their livelihood depends on how much is coming in and out of local ports and business hubs. Two of the largest airports are also located in Queens: LaGuardia and JFK International. Over 50% of the jobs in Queens are made up by the two aforementioned sectors. Private sector jobs haven’t been nearly as debated as global trade so we expect most workers to not be influenced by politician’s stance on trade and jobs as a whole. Issues like education and healthcare will almost certainly be near the top of the list in terms of who someone votes for. For healthcare you have a pragmatic solution from Clinton to build upon the ACA and improve it. On the other hand, you have Sanders who believes healthcare should be moved to a single payer system. These stances do have the similarity of being defined as universal healthcare however they have different views and time frames on how they believe it should be accomplished. Whichever resonates best with voters will without a doubt have an impact here in Queens although it remains to be see how much.
Expected Spread: Sanders +7
Manhattan is without a doubt the most popular borough in New York City as it is home to some of the most famous buildings and businesses known to the USA. Whether it be Times Square, Wall Street, Grand Central, Central Park, One World Trade Center, or one of the historical universities like Columbia, Manhattan is a staple of American culture and is a shining example of success in domestic manufacturing, business, and education. Although New York county is actually one of the smallest in the country, it is the most densely populated. Because of this the demographics have a lot of extremes which make this a very difficult borough to benchmark. If we see a race similar to 2008 in Manhattan, then this will be one of the hottest contested areas across the state and as such will be our bellwether for the NYC metro area.
The electorate here is once again comprised of more minority voters rather than white voters however there are a significant more Hispanic whites which have been more or less a tossup (although Clinton has usually been on the winning side even with small margins) in a lot of contests outside of the South. When you take this key group of voters and factor into it the unprecedented amount of voters with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher (it is nearly 60%) the model suggests Sanders is going to be able to claim victory. If you remember the Washington caucuses, you will remember that we called Seattle to be the closest county between the two (in fact the demographics alone suggested Clinton would do well). Although Clinton did not win, it was without a doubt her best county in a state that heavily favored Sanders for a number of reasons that were outside of our statistical model. Looking at past results and the 2008 election, I expect this to be much closer than 7% for either candidate.
There are some major issues that suggest Sanders will struggle to reach this benchmark. The main one is the message of his campaign and his distaste for Wall Street. This is after all the home of Wall Street and a lot of the people here make their living in an industry that he openly objects. Where he may be able to make up for this is the large college vote coming from NYU and Columbia which without a doubt will go heavy Sanders. Clinton was able to channel enough of a coalition to win this borough despite the fact she has a real issue with winning African American voters throughout the 2008 campaign. Because of how the city is set up and what the demographics look like this will without a doubt be the bellwether. If Sanders wins here by 5% or more it could definitely translate to a close contest across the state. If Clinton is able to win Manhattan however it most likely will indicate a NYC metro blow out and thus a state wide victory barring large blowouts across the rest of New York state
Biggest City: Brookhaven, NY
Expected Spread: Clinton +7
Suffolk County is the easternmost part of Long Island and is a hotly contested area between republicans and democrats. The past 5 elections have been for democrats however they were not always by convincing margins. The county legislature is essentially split down the middle. As such this county will be an interesting one as demographic overlap will determine who comes out ahead. The electorate is more diverse than recent contests however it would be considered on the lower side of the spectrum if you look at NYC metro as a whole. This bodes well for Sanders as he does much better with white voters. Clinton looks to capitalize on the wealthy electorate as Suffolk County is one of the most wealth areas in the state of New York with a median income of nearly $88,000. If white voters overlap with income, then we can expect Clinton to do quite well here. If more minority voters overlap with higher income, then Sanders can expect to over perform and possibly win here.
In previous states where there has been an equal number of republicans and democrats, Clinton has held the edge albeit barely. One important factor for Sanders in keeping it close and even collecting victories has been in his ability to channel independents and moderate republicans who are willing to cross party lines to vote for him. Given that New York is a closed primary however this will be extremely difficult for Sanders to do as affiliation changes were required months ago before he had really started to gain traction in his campaign. Long Island may showcase just how much the closed primary format favors Clinton as it has the potential to go big for her given the natural affinity from registered Democrats.
Expected Spread: Clinton +56
The Bronx looks to be not only Clinton’s best county but also one her safest. The electorate here is comprised primarily by African American’s and Hispanics. Non-Hispanic whites make up just 10% of the electorate. We have not seen numbers like this since we were in the southern states and as such we expect this borough to go for Clinton and in a big way. Despite her struggle to win African American voters in 2008, Clinton was still able to win the Bronx in a convincing fashion. Given her work as a First Lady and Senator she has acquired quite the reputation here and her policies resonate well with voters here.
The culture of the Bronx is often times portrayed by the media as one of violence and poverty. While these are definitely issues (they are issues in any major city let’s be real), the Bronx is defined by the hope that is held by its citizens. When you hear “rags to riches” stories from NYC they often times begin right here. These are a group of people who never give up and are always looking for the next big thing to motivate their borough to greatness. One of these specifically was the transformation of the music scene from Jazz to Hip Hop. The Bronx is not the birthplace of Hip Hop but it without a doubt played a vital role in making it hit the mainstream. Why does any of this matter? It plays directly into Clinton’s message of her cradle to college pipeline as this would be one of the major areas affected by the policy’s implementation. This was already evident in the previous primary and should be magnified this time around as Clinton has gathered a larger, more diverse voter bloc.
While reading this particular write up you may notice that not much is mentioned in the form of good news for Sanders, and that is for good reason. There is no variable in the model that would suggest Sanders is going to do well here and that is amplified by Clinton’s past success here and with minority voters this year. For Sanders to close the gap he will need an unprecedented millennial turnout (higher than Obama’s) as well as some major inroads with minority voters. Watch for results in the Bronx when looking at the state vote. There is a very real probability the race is close and even showing a Sanders victory if more upstate counties have reported than NYC. Expect big margins here as well as a lot of enthusiasm among the voters. If, for some reason, we see close results here it is most likely because of a monumental shift in the race and will be noticed in more boroughs as well.
Biggest City: Hempstead, NY
Expected Spread: Clinton +7
Nassau county is located on the west side of Long Island just over the bridge from NYC. Similar to their neighbors in Suffolk county, this particular area of Long Island happens to be home to some of the wealthiest people on the East Coast. The median income comes in just under $100,000 which is a number we have not seen in mass amount yet this primary season. The demographics are somewhat favorable for Sanders as there are a decent amount of white voters as well as voters with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher. What is important to note however is that Clinton has done much better with post graduate voters which is usually a statistic we see indirectly in high degree % plus high income. Do not be surprised if this county, as well as Long Island as a whole, comes back with big numbers for Clinton as in the few countries we have had previously with a high median income have been very strong Clinton territories.
Sanders does have some room to perform well here. If you remember Waukesha county in Wisconsin it was a higher income area that was actually quite decent for Sanders in the benchmarks because the republican electorate overlapped heavily with the high income electorate. For Sanders to win here he will need diverse voters to be young as he has done well there as well as a less than ideal showing of high income voters. With a median age of 41 it is not likely that there will be a staggering amount of millennials here but it is never out of the question given how much enthusiasm the electorate has for Sanders.
Biggest City: Yonkers, NY
Expected Spread: Clinton +8
Yonkers is considered an inner suburb of New York City and is only a few miles away from Manhattan itself. Those few miles however are quite important as the electorate here is quite a bit different, showing a much more favorable margin for Clinton compared to Manhattan. Voters here are much older and hold a much higher median income. The diversity of the county is less than that of Manhattan which is important for Sanders if he wants to flip the state in his favor. Given the projected margin is so tight this will be bellwether county for places like Long Island and other less diverse, high income areas of New York.
Westchester County as a whole is one of the deepest blue counties in the state despite it being considered a swing county in the late 80’s and early 90’s. There is, however, a sizable amount of independents here who lean to the left of the political spectrum. If these voters were able to switch their affiliation they may be crucial in Sanders’ bid to perform well here. Given how long ago the deadline was to do this combined with where his campaign was at the time we expect quite a few people to be unaffiliated and thus unable to vote. One other important thing to note about Westchester county: it is home to the current Clinton residence which is in Chappaqua.
Biggest City: Buffalo, NY
Expected Spread: Clinton +14
As we move to the far western portion of New York the story remains the same: big Clinton margins. A Clinton victory in New York will most likely rely on big margins in the highly populated areas combined with minimalized blowouts in upstate and rural areas of the state. Buffalo is a very diverse city and is home to over a quarter of the voters in Erie county. The city itself is quite segregated which has been a thorn in the side of Sanders’ campaign as he has done better with minorities in larger cities who are integrated with people of other ethnicities. Speaking with quite a few residents of this area, trade is a major issue given its major ties to industry and manufacturing. A lot of people here actually received a lot of benefits from NAFTA and as such have a more positive view on global trade. As a Senator, Clinton gained a lot of support her as it was one of the big reasons she was able to defeat Lazio in 2000. She will likely have a faithful group of constituents here which will be difficult for Sanders to penetrate.
Sanders’ campaign has had a massive amount of upsets with the top one of course being a Michigan victory. It is not impossible that he is able to turn things around here albeit highly improbable. What Sanders needs is a big showing from local universities as well as millennials. He will have also needed to make inroads with minority voters. One important hump he will have to deal with is trade. He has been very anti-trade in his messages and as such he will need to find a way to appeal to voters who do see global trade as having a significant amount of benefits for their local economy. He has shown he is able to reach out to people and as such if there is a close race here it will show us he has done an exceptional job campaigning in the state and will most likely close the gap and even pull off an upset statewide.
Biggest City: Rochester, NY
Expected Spread: Clinton +14
Rochester has slowly been introduced into what is now known as Tech Valley thanks in part to it the Rochester Institute of Technology as well as demand for jobs. Geographically it is outside of the official Tech Valley however an offshoot of sorts has become prevalent because of demand. Although technology has not been a highly debated issue, you can bet these voters will have strong opinions on both domestic jobs and abroad as their livelihood depends on it. The demographics themselves are quite favorable for Clinton: 30% of voters are either Black or Hispanic, a high median income as well as a reasonable but lower than state average amount of Bachelor Degree holders. The demographics themselves as well as the business reminds me a lot of Seattle however and thus I do believe this county will be hotly contests. Ideologically it is hard to place people especially those who are on opposite sides of the country since everyday life is so much different. If Seattle was any indication however this will be one of the better large counties for Sanders if he is able to channel the millennial, tech savvy voter bloc. The model is definitely kind to Clinton given the demographics and polling numbers, but they were also kind to her in Seattle. Watch this county closely when returns start to come in as it will tell us a lot about the young, tech savvy millennial vote and if they are turning out in the massive numbers they need to propel Sanders to a state wide victory.
Expected Spread: Clinton +10
Staten Island is the fifth and final borough in New York City and it is also the smallest by a considerably large margin. There are a lot of unknowns with this borough as it is quite diverse and has a decently high median income which both favor Clinton. The problem is this is arguably the most conservative part of New York City and thus has a lot of republican voters. Sanders has done well in these areas especially in open primaries and open caucuses however we are not entirely sure how much of a factor it will be in closed contests. The model has been quite accurate however so we remain that to be the case here. Since the county itself will most likely not see huge turnout due to the high amount of republicans it will not have as big of an impact on the total popular vote like it’s neighboring boroughs. This is one of those areas Sanders will need to flip his way if he wants to win the state.
Biggest City: Syracuse, NY
Expected Spread: Clinton +3
Home of the Great New York State Fair and Syracuse University, Syracuse is a crossroads city that long focused across the trade on the Erie Canal and Railway, and still maintains that feature due to interstates running through the city. The transition to a service based economy has been a rocky one, as it used to be a major manufacturing center for the state of New York. It has been somewhat mitigated by the strong research sector in Syracuse and high paying, high education jobs. That said, many in the city may felt left behind and cheated by trade deals. We expect Syracuse to be a very hotly contested city, with factors to make both sides happy and sad. On Sanders side, the city is very young, and research based economies have treated him well, as have economies affected by trade in a negative way. It is also well educated at 33% college degrees. On Clinton's side, though, she can take solace in the fact that it is 19% Hispanic and 12% black, making it very high in minority population. It is also very wealthy, at a median income of $70k, a large number of these individuals are likely to go to Clinton. The projection is that Clinton will edge it out, but if either candidate wins here by even a small margin, it spells trouble for the other, as there are many places in New York with similar demographics racially.
Expected Spread: Clinton +10
Albany is home to New York's state capital, a technological boom city, and a standard-bearer for higher education. It's economy is primarily built on government, health care, education, and technology. Listed fourth on "best place to get a job," the employment rate and economic situation is fantastic here, with large numbers of professional degrees and high income, tech sector jobs. Unfortunately, this does mean that people in the manufacturing sector often get left out as the jobs market rapidly shifts. As green energy and innovation take hold, Albany seeks to benefit from these new, environmentally friendly jobs and may vote accordingly. That said, the list of companies calling Albany home read like the hostile part of a Bernie Sanders speech: Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Verizon, American Express, GE... Lots of people are employed in Albany by these companies, and it remains to be seen how Democrats working here will actually vote. We do know, demographically, what is in store though. 13% black and 5% Hispanic, Sanders starts with a disadvantage. With a $60k income, this metric is hostile to Sanders, but not overly so. The population is mildly older at 38.5 years old median age. All of this helps Clinton, but there are no "hard walls" for Sanders here, meaning he very well could outperform here, which would be a very big deal for him.
Expected Spread: Sanders +23
Ithaca in Tompkins County is home to one of the most unique populations in the country, and often thought of as one of the most intelligent places in the country. Home to Cornell University, many incredible names have gotten their start in Ithaca - Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Bill Nye the Science Guy, author EB White, Anne Coulter, Bill Maher, and Keith Olbermann. The economy of Ithaca itself is based on education and tourism, with beautiful hiking and gorges all around. One interesting factoid - CEOs and Billionaires of major companies got their start here, including the chairperson of Goldman Sachs, a common Sanders target of criticism. Tompkins county is very young, with a median age of 29 years old. The majority of people in this county are students or employed by the university, making them prime Sanders voters. The place does have a fair amount of high income voters, but we expect this to be one of the best Sanders counties in the state.