Leading Off:
● WV-Gov: On Tuesday, coal billionaire Jim Justice convincingly defeated ex-U.S. Attorney Booth Goodwin and state Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler in the Democratic primary. Justice, who is the wealthiest man in West Virginia, decisively outspent his opponents, though while he did some self-funding, he didn't used his personal resources to flood the airwaves the same way other rich candidates have in other states.
Justice will now face state Senate President Bill Cole, who had no opposition in the Republican primary. A pair of recent polls show Justice with clear leads against Cole, though we're still operating with limited data. However, Team Blue can take absolutely nothing for granted here in the fall. While Democrats have held the governorship since 2001, this conservative state has been trending Republican, especially during the Obama administration. In 2014, the GOP seized control of both chambers of the legislature for the first time since the Great Depression, and they also ended the Democrats' generations-long hold over the 3rd Congressional District while easily taking an open U.S. Senate seat. Cole and national Republicans will work hard to complete West Virginia's transformation from conservative Democratic bastion to Republican stronghold.
Cole and his allies at the Republican Governors Association also will have some material to hit Justice with. Justice has a history of late-fees and safety violations at his coalmines. In December of 2014, Justice was also caught on video berating the police officer who pulled him over for speeding. Justice's Democratic foes didn't have the resources to attack him over these issues in earnest, but the GOP is unlikely to have that problem. The good news for Democrats is that Justice can essentially spend as much money as he wants to get his message out. Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as Lean Republican.
Senate:
● NV-Sen: The Democratic group Senate Majority PAC recently reserved $4.2 million in TV time for the fall in New Hampshire, and they're making an even larger purchase in the Silver State. According to Politico's Kevin Robillard, SMP has reserved $6.7 million in airtime for the autumn to help ex-Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto against GOP Rep. Joe Heck.
House:
● CA-07: Ugh. This is not good. On Tuesday, Democratic Rep. Ami Bera's father, Babulal Bera, pleaded guilty to federal campaign finance fraud charges for asking friends and relatives to contribute to his son's 2010 and 2012 campaigns and then reimbursing them. The elder Bera solicited some 130 donations totaling over $260,000 in an effort to evade contribution limits, which is against the law. Prosecutors have asked for a 30-month sentence, pursuant to a plea agreement.
When the news broke, Rep. Bera released a statement saying, "Neither I, nor anyone involved with my campaign, was aware of my father's activities until we learned about them from the U.S. Attorney's Office." The lead prosecutor on the case appears to agree, saying at a press conference, "To date, there is no indication from what we've learned in the investigation that either the congressman or his campaign staff knew of, or participated in, the reimbursements of contributions."
If this state of affairs holds, the question then becomes how much hay Republicans try to make of things. The NRCC has demanded that Bera return these illegal contributions, which would be a painful—but not impossible—task, since Bera had $1.5 million in the bank as of March 31. Bera's Republican challenger, Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones, doesn't appear to have commented yet, but he would of course be delighted if his opponent's coffers were suddenly a quarter million dollars lighter.
Bera only narrowly won in both 2012 and 2014, and while incumbency, presidential turnout, and Donald Trump ought to make life easier this time around, his father's fraudulent activities will only make an already tough race even tougher, however the congressman moves to defuse the issue.
● CA-24: The top-two primary is still about a month away, and Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal, a Democrat, is already out with his fifth TV spot. The narrator decries how members of Congress got to keep their salaries during the 2013 government shutdown, and notes that when the Great Recession forced the county to furlough hundreds of workers, Carbajal gave up part of his salary. It's kind of a strange to see Carbajal airing an ad focused on the shutdown now, a long time after most voters have forgotten about it. It also seems a bit hard to believe that Carbajal giving up a part of his salary is really an issue that's going to energize voters.
● CA-25: God, what a fraud. You saw GOP Rep. Steve Knight's insane quote about Social Security the other day, right? In case you missed it, behold:
"I think that Social Security was a bad idea. I do. I absolutely think it was a bad idea. I think that what should have happened was we should have had the government sit down with the private sector and build a system that people could take with them."
Someone must have told Knight he made a boo-boo, because here he is now in a new Facebook post, trying to pretend as though he never spouted such stupidity in the first place:
"I believe Social Security must be preserved and protected for current and near retirees, and that we must take steps to make sure it is strengthened and secured for future generations."
Leaving aside that this latest statement is merely conservative code for "cut Social Security for anyone more than a few years from retirement age," it is nevertheless in no way compatible with the view that Social Security is a "bad idea." If something is a "bad idea," shouldn't it be wound down and eliminated, not "preserved and protected" or "strengthened and secured"? That's what a normal person would think, anyhow.
It doesn't matter, though. Knight's original remarks are on video, perfectly suited for use in Democratic attack ads, while no one's going to see this dumb Facebook post. It can only help expose Knight as a flip-flopper and a phony.
● LA-03: Republican Rep. Charles Boustany, who is leaving this safely red seat behind to run for the Senate, has endorsed Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle's campaign to succeed him. Angelle performed well in this Acadiana district during last year's gubernatorial primary, and he starts the campaign as the clear frontrunner. However, Angelle faces several other well-funded Republicans in the November jungle primary.
● NE-02: On Tuesday, retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Don Bacon, the national Republican Party favorite, decisively defeated ex-state Sen. Chip Maxwell. Bacon will now face freshman Democrat Brad Ashford in a 53-46 Romney seat based around Omaha.
National Democrats took the unusual step of spending to try and help Maxwell, whom both sides agreed was the weaker candidate, deprive Bacon of the GOP nomination. The DCCC launched a $437,000 ad campaign attacking Bacon as a creature of the GOP establishment, while calling Maxwell "a self-professed tea party conservative," exactly the message that would appeal to Republican primary voters. However, Bacon ran his own introductory spot and had the support of influential Nebraska Republicans, and the DCCC's gamble failed to pay off. Bacon isn't a particularly strong fundraiser, while Ashford has the resources to defend himself. Still, this will be a top GOP target, and national Republicans will likely spend big to try and unseat Ashford. Daily Kos Elections rates the general as a Tossup.
● NV-04: State Sen. Ruben Kihuen, one of the three notable Democrats competing in the June 14 primary to face freshman GOP Rep. Cresent Hardy, is out with the first TV spot of the race. The spot features Sen. Harry Reid noting Kihuen's humble origins and progressive record; it also stars a leader of the powerful Culinary Workers Union. The candidate then appears with his mother in front of the MGM Grand hotel on the Las Vegas Strip and tells the audience that she "worked here as a housekeeper so I could have a better life. I work every day to make her proud."
● NY-01: Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand stars in ex-Southampton Town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst's second spot ahead of the June 28 primary. Gillibrand praises Throne-Holst for turning around a failing child care center and for fixing the Southampton town budget when it was mismanaged. Gillibrand then says that Congress needs Throne-Holst, so that she can fight "for economic opportunity, common sense gun laws, and defending a woman's right to choose." Throne-Holst faces venture capitalist Dave Calone next month for the right to face Republican freshman Lee Zeldin.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.