The Prime Minister of Australia, Malcolm Turnbull, has announced an election will take place on the 2nd of July.
The election is to be a double dissolution election; both the House of Representatives and the entire Senate is dissolved and is up for election. Generally, in Australia governments call elections for the House and half of the Senate, this has been the case for the last 30 years, though technically House only and half-Senate only elections can also be called. A double dissolution election can only be called if the Senate fails to pass Government bills. The current Senate failed to pass a bill allowing the Government to create a watchdog with special powers to investigate the construction industry. Australian federal elections for the House operate under a system of both compulsory voting and compulsory preferential voting (instant run-off).
This diary and my current predictive model, Federal Australian Model 2016 Election (FAME2016), are only interested in the House election, though the Senate election is certainly interesting in its own right.
The Government is currently a coalition of the Liberal and National parties elected in 2013, referred to as the Coalition. These parties have worked together when in federal government for generations, though at times, in certain states, their relationship has been far less amiable. The Liberal party is basically a conservative centre-right party representing the interests of business. The Nationals represent primarily rural electorates and have a focus on the interests of agriculture. Taken together, the Coalition currently hold 90 seats in a 150 member parliament.
The main opposition is the Labor party, their name is less confusing, they represent the interest of labour. Although in recent decades they have embraced open-markets and the deregulation of the economy it would still be fair to categorise them as centre-left. The Australian Labor Party currently hold 55 seats.
The Greens are the third main force in Australian politics. Firmly left of center they are no longer focused on the environment specifically but have a full range of policies. Progressives. The Greens hold only one House seat, they have considerably more influence in the Senate, but are looking to win more House seats over the next decade.
A small number of House seats are also held by Independents. In the event of a close election, where neither main party win 76 seats in their own right, these representatives would choose which party will form Government.
FAME2016 currently suggest that the most likely outcome of an “election held tomorrow” would be a small Coalition majority government holding 77 seats. However the Government win a second term in only 62.1% of simulations. In 37% of simulations the parliament would have no single party with majority control. In just 1.8% of simulations would Labor win government outright.
The tables in this diary are fairly straightforward but the first column contains the names of each seat colour coded to the party currently holding them. The percentage in the middle column represents FAME2016’s estimate of the likelihood of of of the Coalition parties winning the seat.
New South Wales has undergone a redistribution (redistricting) since the 2013 election. This has all but guaranteed Labor pick-ups in Barton and Paterson. There are also a large number of other opportunities for Labor if they can pick up just a little more of a swing. Labor can go a long way to winning government with a strong result in this state. A popular Liberal state government should help to keep the Coalition vote high.
The Seat of New England, while out of reach for Labor, is well worth watching. The former independent member, Tony Windsor, is challenging the colourful deputy Prime Minister, Barnaby Joyce. Windsor was at one point extremely popular, however, his support for the Labor minority Government of 2010-2013 has potentially eroded some of his support. He did not stand for reelection in 2013 and Joyce moved to New England. Joyce often finds himself in the news but he may be most notable in the States for once threatening to shoot Johnny Depp’s dogs.
Labor performed quite strongly in Victoria back in 2013 so there are only a limited number of seats that are realistically available to take from the Liberals.
Labor have to play defence, in some cases due to retiring incumbents, in Bruce, McEwen, and Chisholm but do have opportunities in Dunkley, Deakin, Corangamite, and LaTrobe.
Indi should be held by the incumbent independent Cathy McGowan who defeated the personally unpopular Sophie Mirrabella in 2013. The Liberals have made the questionable decision to renominate Mirrabella. There are no reliable polls from Indi but I’d be surprised to see McGowan lose.
Melbourne should be easily held by the popular Greens representative Adam Bandt. In 2013 he recorded a strong swing to him in the teeth of a fall in the Greens vote nationally. The Greens are making noises about competing for the seats of Batman, Wills, Melbourne Ports, and Higgins. If the Liberal party recommend their supporters preference the Greens ahead of Labor, as there are some suggestions might happen, the Greens could very well win Batman and Wills.
Labor have lost most of their Queensland seats over the past two elections, which leaves a lot of pick-up opportunities. The path to majority government most likely will need to include a good night in Queensland.
Eccentric billionaire(???) Clive Palmer will not be recontesting his Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax, so that seat reverts to a likely Coalition gain.
Bob Katter had a surprisingly close race in his outback seat of Kennedy three years ago but will probably win again this year without evidence to the contrary.
Western Australia is traditionally a very tough state for Labor to compete in. However, they are currently polling very strongly there and could well pick up a number of seats, even a large number of seats, from the Liberal party. Particularly targetted will be Cowan, Hasluck, and the newly created seat of Burt. An unpopular state Liberal government appear to be dragging down the federal vote.
The Western Australian Nationals are, confusingly, not part of the Coalition federally and will be pushing hard in the vast rural seats of Durack and O’Connor. This could add a wrinkle if the election is very close.
The current Liberal incumbent in Tangney, Dennis Jensen, has been dropped by his party and will be contesting the seat as an independent. If Tangney is close this could make the difference at the margins. Should he drop his skittles entirely and unexpectedly direct preferences to Labor this may cost the Liberals the seat. I don’t believe Jensen is popular enough to win in his own right absent polling.
South Australia isn’t a state where a lot of seats change hands at any given election. Labor will make a play for Boothby and Hindmarsh and the Liberals will take a look at Wakefield and maybe Adelaide.
This would be all there is to say except that popular Senator Nick Xenophon is going to be running candidates in every South Australian lower house seat. Polling suggests these candidates might be capable of winning a seat or seats. Mayo being the most likely, probably followed by Sturt. Kevin Bonham has written an extensive analysis. I’ll be keeping a close eye on the likelihood of Xenophon endorsed seats because it is very hard to say which party Xenophon would support if it came down to that.
Tasmanian poll numbers tend to be a little less reliable than the mainland states. Right now it looks like Tasmania isn’t experiencing the same swing to Labor as the rest of the country. This could well be true, and FAME2016 assumes it is, but it is a little surprising. Labor’s shock victory in the Tasmanian upper house seat of Elwick suggests polling might become more favourable to Labor before the election. Labor are certainly spending resources trying to reclaim seats in this state.
Polling of the territories is notoriously bad for a few reasons and therefore I don’t trust FAME2016 for those four seats.
The two seats in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Canberra and the newly renamed seat of Fenner, are both perpetually completely safe for the Labor party.
The current territory-level government in the Northern Territory is breathtakingly unpopular due to an absolutely epic level of incompetence and in-fighting. There is the very real possibility that they could lose every single seat at this year’s territorial elections. That will surely affect federal voting behaviours. I expect the Coalition will win neither Lingiari or Solomon in a close election. Total seat numbers assume as much, so if you think that I’m wrong you could mentally adjust the Coalition’s final tally up a seat or two.
Finally, I’ve got a handy table to summarise FAME2016’s current seat ratings.