On Tuesday, there will be primaries for 32 of the 100 seats in the Kentucky State House of Representatives. These elections will play a major role in determining the key fall battleground states.
The Kentucky State House of Representatives is the last chamber in the south controlled by Democrats, currently at 53D-47R. Republicans are aiming to become the majority party for the first time in over 90 years so that they can pass anti-abortion bills, right to work, and enact fiscally conservative budget reforms (including massive cuts to education and changes to the state pension system). Republicans are hoping that their massive candidate recruitment process and their better fundraising will result in them being able to do what they haven’t done despite much hype in the last few election cycles.
Democrats are hoping to maintain their majority. Despite a massive swing to the right in Appalachia, Democrats have only lost 5 seats in the Kentucky State House since 2010. Democrats are also riding high after 3 unexpectedly large wins in special State House elections earlier this year. Democrats have a well-oiled party machine run by Greg Stumbo and Sannie Overly, and have also gotten lucky from several Republican recruits dropping out of their races (once you drop out, you can’t be replaced on the ballot). Most Democratic incumbents are also entrenched in their respective districts.
The outcomes of several primaries could have major impacts on who wins.
Kentucky State House District 11
- 2012 President: Romney 55%, Obama 44%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 47%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 50%, Bevin 48%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 57%, Knipper 43%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 59%, Westerfield 41%
This district encompasses the historic Ohio River town of Henderson, Kentucky and surrounding communities. Back in the 19th century, this area was one of the largest producers of tobacco and produced considerable wealth for the city. In the later part of the 20th century, tariffs and the declining usage of tobacco caused Henderson’s economy to tank. Today, the economy has diversified and is home to industries like aluminum production, food processing, automobile parts, and die making. Coal is also a common (but slowly dying) industry in Henderson County, and the rural areas grow a lot of corn and soybean.
Thanks to high rates of unionization, Henderson County has remained solidly in Democratic hands for a generation. This county actually flipped from George W. Bush in 2004 to Barack Obama in 2008, but flipped strongly in favor of Mitt Romney in 2012 as Democrats began to be perceived as the party against coal.
Locally, the district is deep blue, with a Democratic State Senator, Dorsey Ridley, and a Democratic State Representative, David Watkins. Watkins has served in the State House for 9 years and prior to that served as a doctor in the community. Watkins is a fairly low profile member of the chamber. He has been a supporter of minimum wage increases, tax credits to small businesses and criminal justice reform. He has a mixed record on gun rights, abortion, and gay marriage. He has won his last three elections with between 60 and 65% of the vote.
This year, two Republicans are facing off for the right to take Watkins on in the general election. The first is James Buckmaster, a doctor and former Democrat (he won 39% in a Democratic primary against Watkins in 2014). Buckmaster has been overshadowed by City Commissioner Robby Mills, who is the strongest Republican to run for this seat in years. Mills is a well-known small businessman (he runs a dry cleaning business) and is running on a typical small government, traditional values platform. As a city commissioner, Mills has worked on the city’s financial issues and on infrastructure investment.
Buckmaster has raised $6K and spent $5K. Mills has raised $31K and spent $4K. I would expect Mills to win this race fairly easily, especially because of his name recognition and his longstanding commitment to the Republican Party.
This seat is still blue enough that it is going to be hard for Mills to knock Watkins off in the general election. It is worth noting that so far Watkins has mailed it in – raising only $2,300 (other Democratic incumbents are busy building up their warchests, regardless of what seat they are in). But for now, the general election is Likely D.
Kentucky State House District 16
- 2012 President: Romney 67%, Obama 32%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 63%, Grimes 34%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 60%, Conway 37%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 56%, Grimes 44%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 64%, Beshear 36%
This district is located in south-central Kentucky and includes Logan County, Todd County, and several precincts in Warren County. This district is primarily agricultural and includes several towns.
The district has moved to the right over the last decade as Republicans have become the de-facto conservative party in Kentucky politics. In 2011, Steve Beshear actually lost this seat as he was winning in a landslide statewide. This is one of the most Republican seats held by a Democrat.
The representative for this district is Martha Jane King, who has represented this seat since 2009. King was a former transportation agent and has ties to the Logan County Chamber of Commerce. King has focused on education, economic development, and jobs in her career in the State House of Representatives. King is known for her constituent outreach, which has allowed her to get elected in an area where even local Democrats are becoming less popular. She won with 54% in 2008, 61% in 2010, 54% in 2012, and 60% in 2014 (against an Independent). King has raised $12K for reelection.
This year, two Republicans are running for the right to face King in the general election. Attorney Ami Brooks has much of the establishment support and is running on a campaign of cutting government spending and reforming the state’s juvenile code to protect dependent, neglected and abused children. Brooks faces Attorney Jason Petrie, who ran as an Independent against King in 2014. Brooks has raised $4K and spent $1K, while Petrie has raised $12K.
If I had to guess, I would say that Petrie is slightly favored in the primary, because of name recognition. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brooks win. She lives in the part of the district that has the highest amount of Republicans eligible to vote in the primary.
The general election is expected to be extremely close. If Republicans can’t win here, they probably can’t take the majority. Tossup.
Kentucky State House District 23
- 2012 President: Romney 66%, Obama 33%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 37%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 65%, Conway 35%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 54%, Beshear 46%
This district is centered on Barren County in the south central part of the state. Barren County has been named one of the top rural places to live in the country. Glasgow, the county seat, plays host to the Scottish Highland Games every year.
This district is the last outpost of Blue Dog Democrats before we get to deep red central Kentucky. That being said, Barren County has moved far to the right in recent years, and has become increasingly willing to elect Republicans at all levels of government.
The State Representative for this district is Johnny Bell, who is also the Majority Whip for the Democratic Caucus. Bell has a troubled past with the Democratic Party, and was at time rumored to be a party switcher. Bell has also been involved in the LRC-sexual assault investigation (that brought down one other Democrat). Overall, he is very conservative (particularly on social issues), which has allowed him to win a very difficult district for the Democratic Party.
Shortly before the filing deadline, Bell announced his retirement. Both parties will hold a primary. The Democratic primary is between Glasgow City Councilman Joe Trigg, who was a former Sergeant in the Air Force and formed a non-profit to feed low-income families in Louisville with produce from farms in Barren County. Trigg wants to focus on infrastructure and a balanced budget if he gets elected. He is African American and was recruited to run by Bell and State House Speaker Greg Stumbo. Trigg claims to be a moderate and has raised just $2K.
Trigg faces Glasgow attorney Danny Basil, who has campaigned on a platform of strengthening the state’s retirement system. Basil has raised $21K and spent $14K.
Who has the edge here? It is hard to say. Trigg has the name recognition and the support of the Democratic establishment but Basil has run a far better campaign. It will be very embarrassing for the party machine if Trigg loses (since they specifically recruited him). I will go with Basil.
The Republican primary is a race between former principal Steve Riley, and former member of the Army National Guard Freddie Joe Wilkerson. Riley is focusing on developing the state’s workforce and expanding opportunities to go into skilled trade. Wilkerson wants to promote transparency and reduce bureaucracy. Riley has way outraised Wilkerson, $33K to $3K. I give the edge to Riley, though low Republican turnout could make things interesting.
Without a popular Democratic incumbent on the ballot, and with downballot Kentucky slowly moving away from team blue, it seems realistic to start this race as Leans R Takeover. Riley is very well known and is a strong campaigner. If Trigg wins, he will need to step it up if he wants to succeed Representative Bell.
Kentucky State House District 24
- 2012 President: Romney 63%, Obama 35%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 41%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 56%, Conway 41%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 52%, Beshear 48%
This district is located in central Kentucky and contains Marion, Larue and Green Counties. Marion County is known for its bourbon whiskey, its Civil War landmarks and bluegrass music. Larue County is primarily rural and known for being the birthplace of Abraham Lincoln. Green County is also rural and is known for its recreation.
The district is politically split. Marion County is one of the bluest counties in the state, with local Democrats regularly beating Republicans with 70 or 80% of the vote (even President Obama got 47% of the vote here in 2012). Larue and Green County are very red with Green County being part of the block of deep red counties in South-central Kentucky.
The State Representative for this district is Terry Mills. Mills is pro-second amendment but besides from that is a standard Democrat (such as his support for increasing the minimum wage). Locally, Mills is involved in the Catholic Church.
Politically, Mills is a survivor. Prior to redistricting, Mills’ district took in Marion County and two of the most Republican counties in South-central Kentucky. But owing to his beloved reputation in Marion County (years of charity work), he regularly received over 80% of the vote (which compensated for poor performance elsewhere).
Greg Stumbo made a point of redrawing his district in 2013. But despite having a much safer district, Mills saw his victory margin drop by 12 points from 61-39 to 55-45. So far this year, Mills has raised $26K.
This year, two Republicans are running for the right to take on Mills. Richard Treitz ran in 2014, and this year has been endorsed by the libertarian oriented Take Back Kentucky. Treitz is pro-industrial hemp, pro-2nd amendment and pro-life. Treitz faces William Reed of Hodgenville, Kentucky. Reed is a former Deputy Circuit Clerk and has also served on the Governor’s Commission on Family Farms. Reed is running on a campaign of fiscal conservatism and cutting government waste.
It is hard to know who is going to win here. Reed has raised $6K and Treitz has raised $10K. A majority of the voters come from Treitz’s Green County, but Reed’s name recognition in LaRue may give him a boost.
The general election is hard to handicap. The district’s most populated county is deep blue and as long as Terry Mills can get his >75% there, he should be fine. But if Mills only gets 65% or 70% in Marion County, his little support elsewhere in the district might throw this to the Republicans. As of now, I rank it Likely D.
Kentucky State House District 26
- 2012 President: Romney 66%, Obama 32%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 60%, Grimes 37%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 58%, Conway 38%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 54%, Grimes 46%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 54%, Beshear 46%
This district is located in Hardin County and Bullitt County, just south of Louisville. This district is economically dominated by Fort Knox in Hardin County and the exurbs of Louisville in Bullitt County. Some of the rural areas include agriculture, but those farms are disappearing because of urban sprawl. This area has a high quality of life compared to other places in Kentucky and has a influential and active Republican Party.
The Republican primary here is between incumbent Russell Webber and former State Senate candidate (and Trump supporter) Brenda Board. Webber is conservative, though not overwhelmingly so. He has a 70% rating from the American Conservative Union. He has opposed the minimum wage increase and opposed banning smoking in public places but has supported the Obama administration’s education program and limiting the maximum contribution to a candidate. Webber has raised $3K and spent $7K. Board is unknown, and has raised $0 and spent $0.
Webber should easily win the primary and will have no opposition in the general election.
Kentucky State House District 28
- 2012 President: Romney 54%, Obama 45%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 49%, Grimes 48%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 51%, Bevin 45%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 57%, Knipper 43%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 57%, Westerfield 43%
This district takes in the southern tip of Jefferson County and mainly consists of sprawling suburban and exurban neighborhoods. The population tends to be predominantly working class.
The representative for this district is Charles Miller. Miller has represented this district since 1999, and is considered moderate. Miller supports the smoking ban, an increase in the minimum wage, and felony record expungement. He is pro-union and pro-NRA. So far, he has raised $7K for reelection.
The two Republicans running here are Don Dolson and Michael Payne. Dolson is a member of the Jefferson County Republican Party State Committee. Dolson is endorsed by the Kentucky Right to Life Association. He faces Michael Payne, who is an engineer. Payne is running on a pro-2nd amendment platform. He also wants to freeze college tuition rates and invest in infrastructure and tourism. Dolson has raised $750 while Payne has raised $5K. Payne should have the slight edge, though Dolson may have some support among establishment Republicans.
The general election will be competitive. The district itself does not have a lot of swing voters. In his past races, Miller has generally won with around 55% of the vote. His district did get bluer after redistricting, so he might be helped that way. This race starts out at Likely D and may change based on Miller’s performance during the campaign as well as how strong a campaign the Republican runs.
Kentucky State House District 33
- 2012 President: Romney 57%, Obama 41%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 55%, Grimes 43%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 52%, Conway 45%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 51%, Westerfield 49%
This district is located in the northern areas of Louisville, Kentucky, and also includes suburban areas of Oldham County. This area tends to be upper income and is home to a sizable percentage of Eastern European immigrants. The suburban areas of Oldham County have some of the most educated people in Kentucky.
The Republican here is Ron Crimm, who was first elected in 1996. Crimm is considered a moderate Republican and actually has a lifetime rating of only 46% from the American Conservative Union. Just this last year, he voted for the smoking ban, voted for the sales tax and voted for Obama’s “Race to the Top.” Crimm is opposed to increasing the minimum wage and is pro-life and pro-2nd amendment. Crimm has raised a surprisingly small amount of money, $12K. He has spent $9K.
2016 might be the year that the music finally dies for Crimm. He faces a vigorous challenge from Jason Michael Nemes, whose dad is Bevin’s Deputy Labor Secretary. Nemes has raised an eyepopping $89,000 and has spent $12,000. He has supposedly made it to most homes in the district, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes on the air with ads. Nemes seems to be a typical conservative who is running to end lawmakers’ pensions (contrary to what Crimm is doing), bring more transparency to government, and fight for socially conservative values. Nemes also criticizes Crimm’s length of service in Frankfurt. Nemes is also well known from having successfully challenged the House Democratic majority’s first redistricting plan.
Adding intrigue to this race is the presence of a third candidate, who is running well to the right of Crimm and Nemes: Andrew Schachtner. Schachtner is the former Head of the Louisville Tea Party, who is fighting to reform pensions, get rid of Kynect and defund Planned Parenthood. Schachtner has raised $6K and spent $1K. Schachtner has also said that new blood is important in Frankfurt.
Who will win? Crimm has the name recognition after years of service, but Nemes has the money, and as the Courier Journal op-ed said, the passion and confidence. I will give the narrow edge to Crimm since the non-incumbent vote is likely to be split between Schachtner and Nemes. But I would not be surprised to see a nice Nemes win too.
Whoever wins the Republican primary will face small business owner Rob Walker. Walker is a conservative Democrat, who is part of Matt Bevin’s transition team. Walker has raised $24K. That suggests that he will give Crimm the toughest fight he’s had in a long time. But this is still one of the most Republican areas of Louisville, so I give the advantage to the Republicans. Likely R.
Kentucky State House District 37
- 2012 President: Obama 50%, Romney 49%
- 2014 Senate: Grimes 52%, McConnell 45%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 54%, Bevin 43%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 60%, Knipper 40%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 60%, Westerfield 40%
This district is located directly west of the Louisville airport, and includes industrial white-working class areas and areas near Churchill Downs.
The representative here is Jeffrey Donohue, a pretty standard liberal Democrat. Donohue is the lead representative of the Louisville delegation. Donohue is pro-union, pro-criminal reform and pro-gun rights.
Two Republicans are running for the right to take on Donohue: Kurt Enger who is a self-described “liberal Republican” running to fix the heroin epidemic and Mark Wilson, who is a veteran. Wilson has raised $4K while Enger has barely raised anything. Advantage Wilson.
Either Republican faces long odds to defeat Donohue in the general election. Likely D.
Kentucky State House District 38
- 2012 President: Obama 54%, Romney 44%
- 2014 Senate: Grimes 54%, McConnell 43%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 56%, Bevin 40%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 61%, Knipper 39%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 62%, Westerfield 38%
This district is located just west of District 37 and stretches from the urban business center south to suburban areas near the Bullitt County line.
The representative is Denver Butler. Despite his dad being close with all the powerbrokers in the state when he was a state representative, Denver has always had a contentious issue with former Speaker Pro Tempore Larry Clark and current Speaker Greg Stumbo. In December 2015, Butler switched parties, claiming that Democrats were not interested in passing bills focusing on his top priorities. The real reason, according to insiders, was that the Democratic establishment had decided not to endorse his brother in the open 46th District in Louisville.
Two Democrats are running to take back this seat. One of them is McKenzie Cantrell, who is a graduate of the Emerge Kentucky program, which is dedicated to electing more women to the Kentucky State Legislature. Emerge Kentucky has a pretty horrible record – in 2014, they threw a ton of money at races around the commonwealth and only managed to pull off one victory. Cantrell is a lawyer and has received the endorsement of United Mine Workers. She has focused on raising the wage for working people and providing family care to working families. Cantrell has raised $25K and spent $12K.
Her opponent is Metro Councilman Dan Johnson, whose district only partially overlaps with this seat. Johnson has had a long history in south Louisville and has served in elected office in since 1992. It is worth noting that his district only partially overlaps with this seat, so he has a lot of new voters to get to know. Johnson is also not the most ethical person. Several stories have been written over the last few years alleging that Johnson owes a considerable amount of debt. Questions have also been raised about improper campaign payments and purchases of jewelry. His legislative assistant has faced a misdemeanor charge of theft. In 2015, foreclosure was filed on Johnson’s home. Johnson has raised only $5K and spent $4K, which is extremely embarrassing considering the entire state Democratic Party is behind him.
Who will win the primary? I’m really not sure. I guess I’ll give the edge to Johnson based on establishment backing, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cantrell win either. This is going to be one of the top Democratic targets in the general election. This seat is pretty overwhelmingly Democratic and Republicans almost never win seats that Obama wins in urban Louisville. Denver Butler will try to ride on his name recognition (his father was a State Representative before him) as well as his well financed campaign account (he has raised $44K so far).
However, fundamentals suggest that this race starts at Likely D takeover.
Kentucky State House District 41
- 2012 President: Obama 77%, Romney 22%
- 2014 Senate: Grimes 75%, McConnell 23%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 75%, Bevin 22%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 79%, Knipper 21%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 79%, Westerfield 21%
This district is majority-minority and stretches from Louisville’s African-American west-end through gentrifying neighborhoods with younger liberal voters and eastward to Republican areas of Mockingbird Valley and St. Matthews.
The representative is Thomas Riner, who has served in the State House for 34 years. Riner is white. Riner is a pastor and has a terrible relationship with the state Democratic Party. In 2015, he brought to light a sexual assault scandal that implicated several of his fellow representatives. Riner then recruited Liberty Counsel to assist with Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis’s legal defense. He has now stopped attending Democratic caucus meetings. Fellow State Representatives from Louisville have taken the unusual decision of lobbying for his defeat, saying he does not represent his district on issues ranging from choice to privacy to treating all people fairly regardless of sexual orientation. Riner has refused to raise money for his race.
Riner’s opponent is former Metro City Councilwoman Attica Scott, who is black. Scott is running on supporting a statewide fairness law, supporting automatic restoration of voting rights for felons and supports increasing the minimum wage. Scott has raised $21K and spent $22K.
A third Democrat, Phil Barker, is an insurance executive, campaigning on education, job creation and public safety. Barker has raised $4K and spent all of that.
It is hard to know who will win this race. Riner has years and years of built in name-recognition and is popular for his anti-corruption crusade in both the black areas and the white areas of this seat. But by not fundraising, he is also giving an opening to Attica Scott. Another issue might be that Riner might be able to squeak by because of split opposition.
I will give the edge to Riner for now.
No Republican filed for the general election. Safe Democratic.
Kentucky State House District 43
- 2012 President: Obama 76%, Romney 23%
- 2014 Senate: Grimes 73%, McConnell 26%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 72%, Bevin 25%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 77%, Knipper 23%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 78%, Westerfield 22%
This district begins in Louisville’s African American West End and goes east along the Ohio River to take in the areas of downtown, areas around KFC Stadium, and some white (conservative) areas east of downtown.
The incumbent here is Darryl Owens. Owens is a civil rights lawyer who has worked on issues having to do with economic development, racial and gender equality and criminal justice reform. Owens was the author of a bill to allow expungement of low-level felonies in the last session and now runs the House Judiciary Committee.
Owens faces perennial candidate Ray Barker in the primary, and should easily win. One Republican has filed for this race: John Mark Owen. The Democrat will easily win here in November.
Kentucky State House District 46
- 2012 President: Obama 54%, Romney 44%
- 2014 Senate: Grimes 56%, McConnell 42%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 57%, Bevin 40%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 62%, Knipper 38%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 62%, Westerfield 38%
This district is located in the southern area of Louisville and is home to the suburban sprawl that dominates southern Jefferson County.
The representative is Larry Clark, who is a retired electrician. Clark has served in the State House for 32 years, and served as Speaker Pro Tempore from 1993-2015. He remains one of the most powerful Democrats in Jefferson County, and is often sought out for fundraising and endorsements. As a legislator, Clark has been involved in education reform, economic development bills, and a bill that saved the state’s unemployment insurance fund. Clark is a member of a union and has also dedicated his time to supporting a key nonprofit, Teenage Parent Program, which works to prevent pregnant teens from dropping out of school. Clark will finally retire from the State Legislature in January 2017.
Both sides have primaries here. The Democratic primary is between Clark-endorsed Allen Gentry, who is a scientist, small businessman and spends his time working with athletes with disabilities. Gentry has been endorsed by a number of labor groups and said his top priorities are education reform, and economic growth. Gentry also wants to expand Kynect. Gentry has raised $28K and spent $14K.
Gentry faces retired teacher Allen Schuler, whose goal is to reform education, enact tax reform and stop right to work. Schuler also takes a nuanced approach to some of the more contentious social issues. Schuler has raised $2K and spent almost all of that money.
Alan Gentry is the favorite to win the primary.
The Republican side is a battle between Eric Crump and Bill Dudley. Dudley is a former union member and worker in the manufacturing industry and is pro-life, against right-to-work, supports gun rights, and wants to fight corporate greed and consumer fraud. Dudley wants to reinstate the estate tax, tax other luxury services, and close loopholes on big corporations. Dudley has raised $1.7K and spent about half of that.
Eric Crump is a small business owner who is campaigning on fiscal responsibility, quality education, and increasing jobs. Crump has raised $5K and spent $3K. I give the slightest of advantages to him.
Like other Kentucky seats, Republicans struggle to win anything that Obama won fairly convincingly. Therefore, this race starts out at Likely D, and will probably require a blunder by Gentry to become more competitive.
Kentucky State House District 48
- 2012 President: Romney 58%, Obama 41%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 56%, Grimes 43%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 49%, Conway 48%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 52%, Knipper 48%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 53%, Westerfield 47%
This district is located in some of the wealthiest and most educated areas of the Louisville Metro area. The wealth in this area dates back to the 19th century, when wealthy Louisvillians would come here for the summer.
The representative here is Bob M. DeWeese. DeWeese is a former surgeon and has served in his seat since 1993. Despite being from a fiscally conservative seat, DeWeese has a lifetime rating from the ACU of 28% (the most liberal Republican in the House). DeWeese has supported increasing the sales tax, supported a smoking ban, and has supported the Obama administration’s education program. By other metrics, DeWeese is more conservative. He is pro-2nd amendment, has received a 100% rating from the NFIB, is pro-life, and has been endorsed by the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce. DeWeese is considered to be one of the more popular members of the chamber. In January, he announced he would retire when his current term ends.
Both parties have primaries here. On the Democratic side, attorney and teacher Maria Sorolis is running on infrastructure investment and education reform that will foster investment. Steve Sturdevant is a small businessman and engineer who wants to reduce regulatory red tape, rebuild infrastructure and invest in education. Sorolis has raised $4K and spent $1K. Sturdevant has raised nothing and spent nothing. Advantage Sorolis.
The Republican candidate here is Ken Fleming, a former Metro Councilman. Fleming is in favor of reducing taxes, adopting Right to Work, repealing prevailing wage laws, and decreasing regulations. Fleming has name recognition from prior public service. He has raised $36K and spent $6K.
Who will win the general election? This area has a well-financed Republican Party and tends to like Republicans like Fleming who are fiscally conservative (and less concerned about social issues). But a Democratic candidate that tries to be fiscally moderate definitely has a chance – Jack Conway came very close to winning this district and Democrats might be willing to actually vote for their party now that the uber-popular DeWeese is not on the ballot. The race will start at Likely R because of fundamentals, Fleming’s name recognition and Fleming’s campaign skills, but this race is definitely an opportunity for Democrats looking to go on offense this fall.
Kentucky State House District 49
- 2012 President: Romney 65%, Obama 32%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 38%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 57%, Conway 39%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 54%, Grimes 46%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 54%, Beshear 46%
This district is located just outside Jefferson County in rapidly exurbanizing-Bullitt County. Bullitt has been a haven for new businesses in recent years and has become a major distribution center. The biggest employer is Zappos, an online shoe and clothing shop. Politically, the region has a highly functional and active Republican Party. The area tends to be libertarian. Because of that, Greg Stumbo drew of one the most gerrymandered districts in Bullitt County, literally connecting every somewhat Democratic precinct to create the 49th district.
The representative for this district is Linda Howlett Belcher. Belcher has bragged about her ability to bring money into the district to address the region’s rapidly growing transportation needs. Belcher is in her second term (though non-consecutive) and faces Jonathan Cacciatore in the Democratic primary. Cacciatore does not seem to be running any kind of campaign. Belcher beat Cacciatore in the 2014 primary 83-17. Belcher is the odds on favorite this year as well.
Politically, the general election should lean towards Republicans, especially as Kentucky continues to realign. The state party recruited popular County Judge Executive Melanie Roberts to face Belcher in the general election. This race looked like it would be very difficult for Democrats until last week, when Roberts dropped out of the race. Belcher now faces a challenge from Jennifer Stepp, a Republican who has raised no money, spent money, and has no campaign infrastructure in place. I think Stepp is a member of the Opioid Addiction Team in Bullitt County, but I’m not sure. The race begins as a Tossup, because of fundamentals. But if Stepp does not literally step it up after the primary, this race looks like it could move towards Team Blue.
Kentucky State House District 54
- 2012 President: Romney 68%, Obama 30%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 62%, Grimes 35%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 63%, Conway 33%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 55%, Grimes 45%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 60%, Beshear 40%
This district is located in Central Kentucky, and takes in all of Boyle and Casey County. The biggest city in this district is Danville, considered the “Birthplace of Bluegrass.” Danville is home to Centre College, a manufacturing sector, and is a manufacturing and service center for Central Kentucky. Casey County is primarily rural and is known for its metalworking industry, its Amish community and its topographical features – “The Knobs.”
Boyle County is more Democratic on the local level, while Casey County is part of the Republican base (that is opposed to voting for even downballot Democrats) in South Central Kentucky. Because of the relatively large margin that Casey County gives Republicans, it is incredibly hard for Democrats to win here.
The representative here is Republican Daniel B. Elliott, who won his first term in a special election in March, 58-41. Elliott has been a consistent conservative in the State House, and has been endorsed by various pro-life and pro-gun groups. Elliott is working on economic development and a bill to stop flooding, which is a severe problem in Casey County. Elliott faces Stephen Evans, a former principal from Danville and Chris Pennington, a civil engineer. Evans has publicly criticized Elliott for supporting education cuts. Pennington is pro-life and wants to protect pensions and cut tax and registration costs for truck drivers.
All three Republicans are from Boyle County, meaning nobody can claim Casey County as their “homefield.” I think Elliott wins, because of name recognition. He is also the only candidate to have raised any kind of money in the race. But in a low turnout primary, I wouldn’t be surprised if he loses.
The winner of the primary will take on Attorney Bill Noelker. Noelker is a good campaigner, but this seat (Casey County) is too Republican for him to have a chance. Safe R.
Kentucky State House District 55
- 2012 President: Romney 70%, Obama 28%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 64%, Grimes 32%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 62%, Conway 34%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 57%, Grimes 43%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 60%, Beshear 40%
This district is located in Central Kentucky and contains Washington County, Mercer County, and rural areas of Jessamine County. This district is primarily agricultural and sits on the southern edge of the Bluegrass. Harrodsburg, in Mercer County, was the first permanent settlement west of the Allegheny Mountains and is home to outdoor recreation opportunities and the state’s oldest family-operated country inn (which has won numerous awards!).
Politically, the region has many conservative Democrats, who have slowly drifted towards the Republican Party over the last decade. The Jessamine part of this district is solidly Republican.
The representative here is Kim King. King is very conservative, pro-gun, and is fiscally conservative. She has a 71% lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union, and notably broke with them over enforcing Obama’s education standards. King is receiving a primary challenge from Bradley Vaughan of Washington County (King is from Mercer County). Vaughan has raised no money and does not seem to be a serious candidate. Advantage King.
In 2014, Emerge Kentucky poured tens of thousands of dollars down the drain in this district in support of Jacqueline Coleman. King beat Coleman by thirty points. Emerge clearly didn’t learn the lesson, as they recruited Tobie C. Brown to be the candidate. Brown’s biography says that she has “over 20 years of pageant experience” and “is now a sought out pageant consultant and judge.” She is a former television host and is a motivational speaker. It doesn’t really matter, though. There is no way King loses here, so I hope Emerge doesn’t waste time investing in Brown’s campaign. Safe R.
Kentucky State House District 58
- 2012 President: Romney 63%, Obama 36%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 61%, Grimes 37%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 57%, Conway 39%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 53%, Grimes 47%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 54%, Beshear 46%
This district is located just east of Louisville, and encompasses all of Shelby County. Historically, Shelby County has been primarily agricultural, growing crops like tobacco, hemp, and wheat. Following World War II, this area started to industrialize. The growth of Louisville has started to encroach upon the western areas of the county. The area is also known as the Saddlebred Capital of the World for its horse farms.
The representative here is Republican Brad Montell, whose two biggest accomplishment include prohibiting 16 and 17 year olds from driving if they have not achieved passing grades and reforming the pension system in 2013. Montell is considered a moderate Republican.
The candidates for the Republican primary are County Judge Executive Rob Rothenburger and businessman Kendall Law. Law is campaigning on a platform of reducing waste, fraud, and abuse, modernizing Medicaid, and conducting performance-based budgeting. Rothenburger seems to be running as a generic conservative. Amazingly, both Rothenburger and Law have raised no money. I would give the edge to Rothenburger, only because of name recognition on Tuesday.
Whoever wins the Republican primary will face teacher and Emerge Kentucky Democrat Cyndi Powell Skellie in the general election. Skellie has raised $12K, and has the backing of State Democratic Party Chair Sannie Overly. However, this seat does not easily elect Democrats, and Skellie will need Rothenburger or Law to make several mistakes to win. Safe R.
Kentucky State House District 64
- 2012 President: Romney 67%, Obama 31%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 66%, Grimes 31%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 61%, Conway 35%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 64%, Grimes 36%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 58%, Beshear 42%
This district is located in Northern Kentucky – the heart of local Republican strength in Kentucky. This area is fairly densely populated with most of the towns being medium-sized. The area’s economy is connected to Cincinnati, which is just over the river. Some of the employers in this district include Cengage, Mazak and Rotek.
The representative for this district is Tom Kerr, who was a Democrat from 1985 to 2004 and has been a Republican since then. Kerr is a generic conservative. He will retire at the end of the session.
Several Republicans are running in Kerr’s place. Kim Moser is the director of the Northern Kentucky Office of Drug Control Policy, who has spent the last few years fighting the heroin epidemic (a big issue in Kentucky). Moser has also said she wants to be involved in tort reform registration. Kerr has endorsed Moser.
Moser faces a primary with Sean P. Fitzgerald who is a businessman and lawyer fighting against government outreach on economic issues. Moser has raised $53K and spent $25K, while Fitzgerald has raised $5K and spent $4K.
Advantage Moser.
The Democratic contest is between unknown Democrat Larry Varney and Independence City Councilman Lucas Deaton. Deaton claims some of his top values include “Family First,” “Faith in God,” and “Justice will prevail.” Deaton and Varney have raised no money and spent no money. Lean Deaton because of his name recognition.
Safe R in the general. This is one of the few areas that Republicans can count on downballot.
Kentucky State House District 70
- 2012 President: Romney 63%, Obama 36%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 38%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 55%, Conway 42%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 52%, Knipper 48%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 51%, Beshear 49%
This district is located in rural northeastern Kentucky, in the Bluegrass region. The area is known for its farms and its wide-open fields. Manufacturing and distribution centers are mostly in the small towns of the district like Maysville.
The current representative is Democrat Michael Denham. Denham has been a low-key representative since he first entered the legislature in 2000. In December 2015, Denham announced he would retire because of health reasons.
Democrats promptly selected John Sims Jr, a Fleming County Fiscal Magistrate, to be their candidate. Sims has raised $25K and spent $8K.
Republicans have a primary between John VanMeter, a Maysville lawyer and James E. Johnson, a small farmer. Both candidates are running on similar conservative platforms. Johnson has raised no money, while VanMeter has raised $57,150 and spent $34,394. VanMeter has the advantage.
The general election will be competitive. Republicans need to win here if they want to win the State House (winning open seats is easier than beating incumbents). This is an area that really likes its homefield candidates, and VanMeter could get an advantage out of Mason County, which is a fairly Democratic leaning area in the district. Tossup for now, and will change later, as the candidates change.
Kentucky State House District 71
- 2012 President: Romney 76%, Obama 23%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 69%, Grimes 27%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 68%, Conway 28%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 61%, Grimes 39%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 66%, Beshear 34%
This district is located where the Bluegrass region, the Mississippi Plateau and the Cumberland Plateau come together. It encompasses Garrard County, Rockcastle County, and the parts of Madison County west of Richmond. The region is home to outdoor recreational opportunities and the Kentucky Music Hall of Fame.
The representative is Republican Jonathan Shell. Shell is considered an up and coming Republican and was tapped by Jeff Hoover to lead efforts to retake the House this year. Shell was widely lauded for his ability to recruit candidates in over 90 districts, something that hasn’t been done (ever?). Shell is politically conservative and has raised $64K and spent $37K.
Shell faces an interesting challenge from Buzz Carloftis, the former County Judge Executive of Rockcastle County. Carloftis may have an edge up in that he has name recognition there and most of the Republican primary voters come from Rockcastle County. Carloftis has only raised $4K for the campaign though. Shell has the financial advantage and is known as a tenacious campaigner.
I think I will give the edge to Shell, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Carloftis wins. Needless to say, Democrats would love to have the representative who is trying to defeat them lose his race in the primary and not even make it to a possible Republican majority next year.
Kentucky State House District 72
- 2012 President: Romney 58%, Obama 40%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 49%, Grimes 47%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 52%, Bevin 44%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 61%, Knipper 39%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 57%, Westerfield 43%
This district is located just northeast of Lexington, in the heart of Bluegrass Country. Most of the region is known for its horse farms, its hemp, and its historic small towns.
The representative for this district is Sannie Overly, the Caucus Chair of the State House Democrats and the leader of the Kentucky Democratic Party. Overly was also Jack Conway’s running mate in 2015. As state representative, Overly has chaired a subcommittee that authorizes road construction projects and has also passed bills combatting human trafficking. Overly has raised $66K and spent $7K.
Horse farmer and 2014 congressional candidate Curtis Kenimer is challenging Overly. Kenimer faces a primary challenge from Phil D. Copher. Kenimer has raised $16K and spent $8K while Copher has not raised or spent any money.
Advantage Kenimer.
Sannie Overly should easily hold this seat in the general election (Safe D), though Kenimer’s presence will prevent her from investing time into helping other Democrats.
Kentucky State House District 73
- 2012 President: Romney 65%, Obama 33%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 58%, Grimes 38%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 56%, Conway 40%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 51%, Knipper 49%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 53%, Beshear 47%
This district takes in Clark County and the northern areas of Madison County (in the Bluegrass region) This district is primarily agricultural, growing hemp and even some tobacco, though areas of Winchester, the county seat, have an industrial base.
The representative here is Republican Donna Mayfield. Mayfield is a pretty typical conservative Republican. Local businessman Les Yates is challenging Mayfield. Yates says he will stand up for the constitution if elected to office. Mayfield has raised $15K; Yates has raised $3K. Advantage Mayfield because of name recognition.
The Democratic primary is interesting here. Well-connected attorney John Hendricks filed for this seat way back in August of last year and was joined by Greg Stumbo, which many thought was a indicator that Democrats were serious about winning back this seat. Hendricks then managed to double Mayfield’s fundraising, bringing in $31K. Hendricks faces unknown Democrat Kenneth Blair in the primary. Advantage Hendricks.
While it is a difficult seat for Democrats, Mayfield could definitely lose with a strong campaign to bring conservative Democrats back into the fold. Likely R for now, but bares watching as the year evolves.
Kentucky State House District 81
- 2012 President: Romney 56%, Obama 42%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 51%, Grimes 45%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 49%, Conway 47%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 57%, Knipper 43%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 53%, Westerfield 47%
This district is located east of Lexington, taking in the city of Richmond and surrounding area. Richmond has seen growth in recent years, thanks to a commercial and residential boom in the eastern Bluegrass.
Businesswoman and Democrat Rita Smart is the representative for this district. Smart has focused on legislation for abused children and has also sponsored a bill to restore police power to arrest for misdemeanors. On other more national issues (i.e. minimum wage), Smart is a pretty standard liberal Democrat.
The Republican primary here is between veteran and community activist Gus LaFontaine and businessman and 2014 candidate C. Wesley Morgan. LaFontaine is emphasizing right to work, substance abuse, veterans issues, and burdensome government regulations. Morgan is for eliminating the income tax, eliminating classes that are not critical to a degree, and is pro-gun and pro-right-to-work. Morgan has raised $4K and spent $2K while LaFontaine has spent $4K and spent $1K.
My best guess is that Morgan wins, because of his name recognition.
The general election will not be easy for the Republican. Richmond still likes its moderate Democrats, especially those that have a long history in the community. Smart fits the bill, and won her last two elections with 55 and 58% of the vote. Likely D.
Kentucky State House District 82
- 2012 President: Romney 79%, Obama 20%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 71%, Grimes 26%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 70%, Conway 26%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 65%, Grimes 35%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 70%, Beshear 30%
This district is located in Whitley and Laurel County in South-central Kentucky. It is the first district that we come to that is within the Cumberland Plateau and the Appalachian mountain region. Whitley County is known for its recreational opportunities in the Daniel Boone National Forest.
Politically, the area is very Republican and has been extremely Republican for the last century (like the rest of south central Kentucky). The representative is Republican Regina Bunch. Bunch is a fairly standard conservative. Bunch has raised $5K and spent all of that.
She faces Republican farmer Alex Patrick in the primary. Patrick is the grandson of a former Whitley County Sheriff. Patrick is in favor of drug law reform and term limits. Patrick has raised no money and spent no money for his campaign.
Advantage Bunch.
Surprisingly for south-central Kentucky, the Democrats actually have a candidate. Teacher Bill Conn has filed here. He was last seen losing a State Senate seat in this area 81-19. Safe R in the general.
Kentucky State House District 84
- 2012 President: Romney 79%, Obama 19%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 67%, Grimes 30%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 62%, Conway 34%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 52%, Grimes 48%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 55%, Beshear 45%
We move eastward to District 84, which is in the heart of coal country in the Appalachians. This district takes in Perry County and the famous Harlan County. This district is very poor, as are a lot of the mountain areas in East Kentucky.
Politically, this district is dominated by conservative, union-friendly Democrats. The representative is Democrat Fitz Steele. Steele is one of the most conservative, if not the most conservative member of the caucus, and has been rumored to be a party switcher. Steele now heads the powerful Natural Resources Committee in the State House, where he is focused on returning coal severance funds to Eastern Kentucky and to reforming education. Steele has raised $32K and spent $34K for his election.
Steele faces Kenneth Hall, the head of the Perry County Cemetery Board of Directors. Hall is campaigning on a platform of investing in infrastructure and expanding tourism, two ways he thinks Eastern Kentucky can recover from falling coal jobs. Hall has raised no money and spent no money for his election.
Pastor Chris Fugate is the Republican candidate. This is a seat that should be a gimme for Republicans, especially if they can use the War on Coal to their advantage. But Fugate does not appear to have an active campaign (though he has raised $5K). Steele is popular, but might be rusty from not having faced a Republican in a few cycles. Lean D, with the potential to change.
Kentucky State House District 91
- 2012 President: Romney 72%, Obama 26%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 61%, Grimes 35%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 61%, Conway 35%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 53%, Grimes 47%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 58%, Beshear 42%
This district is located in the heart of coal country. It begins in coal-dominated, conservative Democrat Breathitt County and moves west to pick up historically Republican areas of impoverished central Kentucky: Lee, Owsley, and Estill. Like most Appalachian districts, this area is known for its outdoor recreation, its drug epidemic and its political corruption.
The representative from 2003 to 2013 was Democrat Ted Edmonds, who relied on large margins out of Breathitt County, while the rest of the district went Republican. But population shifts and conservative Democrats switching to Republicans have put this seat in play in recent years. In a huge shock, Edmonds was ousted in 2012. The Republican replacing Edmonds was Gary Herald. Herald was conservative on almost every issue in the state legislature.
In 2014, Democrats recruited educational dean Cluster Howard to run. Howard was able to resurrect the old Edmonds coalition – with a huge win in Breathitt County, but poor showings everywhere else. He won by 13 votes total. Howard has been a pretty low-key member of the legislature, and notably authored a bill this year to investigate the illegal dumping of illegal waste in landfills in his district.
In 2016, Howard must try to resurrect his 2014 victory again. Essentially, he has to hope everything goes right in Breathitt County (>70% win in that county) to compensate for a poor showing elsewhere. But with Eastern Kentucky becoming more Republican by the month, it seems like Howard will have his work cut out for him. Herald has only raised $5K for reelection, which is less than impressive. Tossup in the general election.
Who will face him? There is a Republican primary between former Representative Gary Herald and Estill County Schools Superintendent Randall Christopher. Both seem to be standard conservative Republicans. Herald has raised $5K while Christopher has raised $16K. Herald has the name recognition but Christopher comes from a more populated county and has more money. Anybody’s guess who wins, but I lean towards Christopher.
Kentucky State House District 93
- 2012 President: Romney 76%, Obama 23%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 64%, Grimes 33%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 58%, Conway 39%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 53%, Grimes 47%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 51%, Westerfield 49%
This district is located in rural impoverished Martin County (where LBJ announced a War on Poverty) and Pike County, the largest county in the Appalachian Mountains. Pike County was one of two sites for the Hatfield-McCoy dispute of the 19th century. Both counties have historically been reliant on coal but Pike County is big enough that it has other industries. Among them is a substantial banking sector.
Chris Harris, a Democrat, represents this district. Before winning this seat, Harris was an attorney and a county government official. In 2014, he beat Democrat Keith Hall in an extremely nasty primary (Hall, a coal operator, has since been convicted of bribing mine regulators). As a Representative, Harris has focused on expanding the Open Records Act to private utilities. Other than that, he has been a pretty standard rural Kentucky Democrat. In his campaign, Harris has focused on his experience bringing projects to the district and has been up on the air with television ads.
Harris faces a primary challenge from coal miner Douglas Sayers. Sayers has been endorsed by the United Steelworkers, is a member of the NRA, and is pro-life. Sayers has criticized Harris for moving his law office to West Virginia to evade county taxes. Sayers has also campaigned on reforming Martin County’s broken water system.
Harris has raised $55K and spent $10K. Sayers has raised $19K and spent $17K. My guess is that Harris will win the primary.
In the general election, this race could be interesting. Harris is not entrenched and Martin County almost never votes for Democrats. That means Harris will have to count on a large margin out of Pike County, which is possible, but is becoming harder and harder. However, Harris is helped by the fact that Republicans are running Norma Kirk-McCormick, an unknown Republican from Martin County. McCormick has raised $2K and is focusing on economic recovery through things like high speed internet and infrastructure, and drug rehabilitation in her campaign.
Tossup based on district fundamentals, with a potential to reassess as the election season continues.
Kentucky State House District 94
- 2012 President: Romney 77%, Obama 21%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 65%, Grimes 32%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 56%, Conway 40%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 51%, Grimes 49%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 50%, Westerfield 50%
This district is located in the heart of coal country, taking in Letcher County and parts of Pike County. Like the other coal seats, this area has historically been pro-union and impoverished.
The representative for this district is Democrat Leslie Combs. Combs has been a very vocal member during her time in the state legislature. She has been a leading advocate of the need to diversify the economy, in contrast to the coal obsession that some politicians have. Combs has also chaired the budget transportation committee, which has allowed her to take charge on expanding the Mountain Parkway. She has also sponsored legislation to expand public-private partnerships to boost economic development in Eastern Kentucky. On the final day of filing in 2016, Combs announced she would retire at the end of her term.
Democrats have a primary between pharmacist and Pike County Chamber of Commerce member Joel Thornbury and assistant Letcher County attorney Angie Hatton. This district will likely depend on who can get their base out to the polls. Hatton has raised $18K and spent $16K. Thornbury has raised $52K and spent $30K. If Hatton can carry Letcher by a large enough margin, she’ll win. If Thornbury can carry Pike by a large enough margin, he’ll win. Small advantage to Thornbury, but could go either way.
Republicans have a primary between former Pikeville Mayor Frank Justice II, Pikeville trial attorney Philip Wheeler, retired parole officer Wesley Doughman and businessman Colin Fultz. Fultz has been in trouble with the University of Kentucky in the past for pursuing a federal trademark regulation that included the word “Kentucky.” Justice has raised $76K and spent $66K, Fultz has raised $3K and spent $2K, Doughman has raised $1.1K and spent $734 and Wheeler has raised $26K and spent $25K.
Very few Republicans will cast votes in Letcher County, so this race will be decided in Pike County. Both Wheeler and Justice are very well connected. I’d say Justice, based on his name recognition in Pikeville, but would not be surprised if Wheeler won.
The general election will be competitive. Republicans think they can win this seat back, since it is an open seat. Thornbury is a better candidate for Democrats from a fundraising perspective. However, Hatton has the potential to win Letcher County big, which could offset Justice and Wheeler’s lead in Pike County. On the other hand, Thornbury could hold down the Republican lead in Pike County, or even win it. Ultimately, there are too many candidates to reasonably predict what the general election will look like. Tossup, with a race ratings change coming after the primary.
Kentucky State House District 95
- 2012 President: Romney 67%, Obama 31%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 54%, Grimes 43%
- 2015 Governor: Conway 53%, Bevin 44%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 61%, Knipper 39%
- 2015 Attorney General: Beshear 61%, Westerfield 39%
We now come to the most Democratic district in coal country – the only eastern KY seat that Jack Conway actually won. This seat takes in Floyd County. Its county seat, Prestonsburg, is known for its Mountain Arts Center, The Country Music Highway, and a technologically advanced planetarium. Like the rest of Eastern Kentucky, it has a heritage connected to coal and unions.
The representative for this district is Speaker of the House of Representatives Greg Stumbo. Except for a short period where he was Attorney General, Stumbo has represented this seat since 1980. Stumbo is known as a populist back home, but he is also somewhat of a politically divisive figure in Frankfort.
Stumbo has had a strange few months, to say the least. On Election Night 2015, Stumbo gave a bizarre sermon-like speech (YouTube: “Greg Stumbo meltdown”). He then publicly debated suing Democrats who had switched parties. But around March, things started to look up for him. He helped three Democratic candidates pull off wins in competitive state House races, watched as Matt Bevin embarrassed himself over the budget, fought for minimum wage increases, and became the voice of voters who opposed the Bevin education cuts.
Stumbo faces former State Representative James “Jimmy” Rose in the Democratic primary. Rose has hit Stumbo on the fact that he is regularly out of the district, while the district remains in poverty (Stumbo spends most of his time in Frankfort). Rose has also said he wants to strengthen veteran programs and claims he is a conservative. Stumbo has campaigned on his experience, his support of the Mountain Parkway, his support of unions, his support of Kynect, and his aim to protect public education from Governor Bevin’s cuts. Just last week, Stumbo announced he would sue Bevin over his veto of a budget that did not cut education as fully as Bevin had hoped.
Stumbo is taking the challenge seriously. He has raised $132K and spent $80K. Rose has raised $29K and spent $26K. Stumbo should be favored to win, but it will be interested to see how many protest votes go to Rose. If Stumbo only barely hangs on, or even if Rose gets 40% or so, questions might arise about whether Stumbo is the appropriate person to lead the House Democrats. Stumbo is also most associated with the national Democratic agenda (even if he is pro-coal), so I would expect Rose would get the votes of some of the more conservative Democrats, particularly coal miners. If Rose gets a substantial percentage of the vote, that could also signal that coal miners are unhappy with Democratic leaders, which could translate into serious losses in Eastern Kentucky at the local level in the fall.
Whoever wins the Democratic primary will face Attorney Larry Brown, a Republican, in the general election. Brown being on the ballot will mean that Stumbo will have to pay attention to his home district. But the likelihood of Stumbo actually losing is extremely low. Safe D in the general.
Kentucky State House District 97
- 2012 President: Romney 73%, Obama 25%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 61%, Grimes 35%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 59%, Conway 37%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 54%, Grimes 46%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 56%, Beshear 44%
This district takes in Johnson, Morgan, and Wolfe County, all part of the coal country. Like other coal seats, this area has a fiscally liberal, socially conservative, pro-union history.
The representative for this district is Hubert Collins, who has served in the state legislature for 25 years. Collins is a typical eastern Kentucky Democrat - liberal to moderate on fiscal issues and conservative on social issues. Collins has also focused on combatting the drug epidemic in eastern Kentucky.
What might be most notable about Collins is his likability. Unlike other eastern Kentucky seats which Republicans have usually left unchallenged, Collins regularly faces competitive elections. He routinely wins by large margins, including in Johnson County, one of three eastern Kentucky counties that votes Republican even downballot. Collins has raised $5K for reelection.
The Republican primary here is between William Scott Wells of Morgan County and Frankie Wayne Spencer of Morgan County. Spencer is campaigning on God First, school safety, tourism investment and investment in agriculture (kind of unusual in a mostly mountain-based district). Spencer has also made a point of discussing the War on Coal, which I guess makes sense, but has never worked against Collins before. Scott Wells seems to be a pretty standard conservative.
Spencer has raised $3K and Wells has raised nothing. Wells does have some residual name recognition from being a primary loser in 2014, so either of the two candidates could win this. Slight advantage Spencer, perhaps.
Hubert Collins starts out as the leader in the general election. The only reason this isn’t Safe D is that district fundamentals would support a Republican. Collins will turn 80 this year, so Republicans may have a shot to pickup this seat in a few years. Likely D.
Kentucky State House District 99
- 2012 President: Romney 57%, Obama 40%
- 2014 Senate: McConnell 52%, Grimes 44%
- 2015 Governor: Bevin 54%, Conway 43%
- 2015 Secretary of State: Grimes 52%, Knipper 48%
- 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 52%, Beshear 48%
This district is located in eastern Kentucky and is a little bit north of the prime coal mining area. It includes Elliott County, one of the most Democratic counties in Kentucky, Rowan County (home of Kim Davis), and conservative Lewis County. The area is known for its outdoor recreation, Morehead State University, country music, and some logging. The area is known for its heavy union support and its poverty.
The district’s representative is House Majority Leader Rocky Adkins. Adkins has achieved an almost saint-like status in Eastern Kentucky. Back in the 1970s, Adkins was a star basketball player at Elliott County High School and Morehead State University. In his 30 years in the state legislature, Adkins has earmarked millions of dollars for his district to improve infrastructure. He has focused a lot of time on issues of energy (where he advocates for renewable energy), healthcare (he holds a major fundraiser every year for cancer research), and education. The Huffington Post describes him as pursuing an “aggressive form of retail politics” that has allowed him to amass tremendous loyalty in the mountain region. I have heard a few people call him quite literally, the “king of the mountains.”
For the first time in recent memory, Adkins will face a challenge in November. The two Republican candidates are nurse practitioner Wendy Fletcher and ordained minister and Kim Davis supporter Randy Smith. Fletcher opposes Kynect and Obamacare while Smith claims our constitution is being shredded to pieces. Fletcher has raised $7K and spent $2K while Smith has raised $1K and spent almost all of that. I’m not really sure who will win. Both candidates are from Rowan County, but the majority of the Republican votes will be cast in Lewis County. Smith has certainly made a name for himself supporting Kim Davis, so that could help him.
The general election will be interesting. Adkins should easily sweep Elliott County (where he may get more than 85% of the vote) and Rowan County. But how big will his margins be there? The most populated county in the district is Lewis County, which never votes for Democrats, even at the local level. While Adkins is doing extensive outreach there, he is going to need good turnout and large margins out of Rowan and Elliott to win. Likely D, but district geography could create a possibility for a huge upset.