MY QUESTION: America has a great need for job growth. The Republican and Democratic parties each claim to be the party creating the most jobs. So I asked the question: “Has job growth differed when each party occupied the White House?” What I found surprised me!
WHAT I EXPECTED...
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Expectation: On the average, there would be little difference in job growth between Democratic and Republican presidencies.
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Expectation: The data would exhibit no trend. Democratic and Republican presidencies would each have times of faster and slower job growth.
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Expectation: While each party claims to be superior in job growth, the data would support neither assertion.
This job growth parity between the parties is NOT what I found…
WHAT I FOUND...
Democratic Job Growth is Over Twice as Fast
The average annual job growth rate during Democratic presidencies came close to tripling that during Republican presidencies.
- Democratic presidencies: 2.84% annual job growth
- Republican presidencies: 1.08% annual job growth
Consistent Across Presidencies
This job growth difference has been consistent across presidencies for over 75 years. See the chart at the top.
HOW THE CHART WORKS…
The chart shows a cumulative job growth index for a series of Democratic presidencies (in blue) and Republican presidencies (in red).
- An individual job growth index is first calculated for each president by dividing the number of jobs at the end of a president’s term by the number of jobs at the end of the previous president’s term, regardless of party.
- The cumulative job growth index is then calculated by multiplying the individual job growth index by the cumulative job growth index for the immediately prior president of the same party.
- The horizontal axis is the cumulative number of years a party held the presidency.
Job Growth and Presidential Party,
Sorted from Highest to Lowest
Roosevelt |
5.3% |
Johnson |
3.7% |
Carter |
3.1% |
Truman |
2.5% |
Clinton |
2.4% |
Kennedy |
2.4% |
Obama Post-Recession |
1.7% |
Reagan |
1.7% |
Ford |
1.1% |
Eisenhower |
0.9% |
Obama |
1.0% |
Bush I |
0.6% |
Bush II Pre-Recession |
0.6% |
Nixon |
0.5% |
Bush II |
0.1% |
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This table shows the presidencies with the highest job growth at the top, and those with the lowest job growth at the bottom. A clear trend is that Democratic presidencies are at the top of the chart, and Republican presidencies are at the bottom.
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Democrats Consistently Higher: The growth rate for the Democratic presidencies has been consistently higher than that for the Republican presidencies for more than 75 years.
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Slowest Democrat Exceeds Fastest Republican: Over the first seventy years of this chart, the slowest job growth rate for a Democratic presidency (Kennedy at 2.2%) exceeded the fastest job growth rate for a Republican presidency (Reagan at 1.7%).
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Democrats on Either Side of Reagan Had Higher Job Growth Rates: The Reagan presidency had the highest job growth rate of any Republican presidency: 1.7%. The job growth rate during the Carter presidency (3.1%), the Democratic presidency preceding the Reagan presidency, was over 80% greater than during the Reagan presidency. The job growth rate during the Clinton presidency (2.4%), the next Democratic presidency after the Reagan presidency, was 40% greater than during the Reagan presidency.
MY SURPRISING RESULT...
“Has job growth differed when each party occupied the White House?” Contrary to my expectation that job growth would be unrelated to presidential party…
- Job growth rate during Democratic presidencies more than doubled that for Republican presidencies.
- This has been consistent across presidencies for more than 75 years.
Addendum on the Credit Collapse, 2008-2010…
- More recently, when the job impacts of the 2008 credit collapse are ignored, average job growth during the Obama presidency nearly tripled that of the Bush II presidency.
- During the post-recession period, the job growth rate under the Obama presidency was greater than the Reagan presidency, the Republican with the fastest job growth rate.