Sen Sanders and Sec Clinton split the two states that voted yesterday — Bernie claimed Oregon at 55%-45% while Hillary claimed Kentucky by less than 1% at approximately 47%-46%. The delegate split from the two races mean that Sen Sanders netted (at time of writing) 8 delegates between the two states leaving Sec Clinton’s pledged delegate lead at +272. With 781 pledged delegates remaining, Sen Sanders would need 67.4% of all of them to attain a majority, while Sec Clinton only needs 32.6%. The result from Oregon should throw cold water on the idea that Bernie Sanders could win California by a margin big enough to threaten Hillary Clinton’s lead. Based on the demographics of the state, Oregon should be more favorable for Bernie than California and his performance in Oregon, in theory, would be an upper limit on how well he could do in California. Indeed, Benchmark Politics released preliminary benchmark for California which has Clinton winning 56%-44%. I’ve long expected California to be a single digit race either way, and a single digit race there guaranteed that Hillary Clinton will have the majority of pledged delegates and be able to claim the nomination.
Benchmark Politics also released benchmarks for NM and NJ which also vote on the same day as California on June 7, and both show healthy Clinton leads. With the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and DC voting on the other 3 voting days left on the primary calendar, yesterday may have been the last day that Sen Sanders earned more delegates than Sec Clinton.
Delegate Race
As usual, all numbers are from The Green Papers (Nevada is now projected to be 20-15 following the Nevada state convention, the original projection from the caucuses back in Feb.).
DATE |
|
PLEDGED DELEGATES |
COOK'S CLINTON TARGET |
COOK'S SANDERS TARGET |
CLINTON TARGET ADJUSTED |
SANDERS TARGET ADJUSTED |
538 CLINTON TARGET |
538 SANDERS TARGET |
538 REVISED CLINTON TARGET |
538 REVISED SANDERS TARGET |
CLINTON RESULT |
SANDERS RESULT |
CLINTON DIFFERENCE FROM COOK'S TARGET |
CLINTON DIFFERENCE FROM 538'S TARGET |
CLINTON TOTAL |
SANDERS TOTAL |
RAW LEAD |
2/1/2016 |
Iowa |
44 |
16 |
28 |
18 |
26 |
18 |
26 |
|
|
23 |
21 |
5 |
5 |
23 |
21 |
CLINTON BY 2 |
2/9/2016 |
New Hampshire |
24 |
9 |
15 |
10 |
14 |
9 |
15 |
|
|
9 |
15 |
-1 |
0 |
32 |
36 |
SANDERS BY 4 |
2/20/2016 |
Nevada |
35 |
16 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
|
|
20 |
15 |
2 |
3 |
52 |
51 |
CLINTON BY 1 |
2/27/2016 |
South Carolina |
53 |
27 |
26 |
30 |
23 |
32 |
21 |
|
|
39 |
14 |
9 |
7 |
91 |
65 |
CLINTON BY 26 |
3/1/2016
|
Alabama |
53 |
27 |
26 |
30 |
23 |
35 |
18 |
|
|
44 |
9 |
14 |
9 |
135 |
74 |
CLINTON BY 191
|
American Samoa |
6 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
4 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
139 |
76 |
Arkansas |
32 |
13 |
19 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
14 |
|
|
22 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
161 |
86 |
Colorado |
66 |
30 |
36 |
33 |
33 |
30 |
36 |
|
|
25 |
41 |
-8 |
-5 |
186 |
127 |
Georgia |
102 |
52 |
50 |
57 |
45 |
65 |
37 |
|
|
73 |
29 |
16 |
8 |
259 |
156 |
Massachusetts |
91 |
35 |
56 |
40 |
51 |
41 |
50 |
|
|
46 |
45 |
6 |
5 |
305 |
201 |
Minnesota |
77 |
32 |
45 |
36 |
41 |
30 |
47 |
|
|
31 |
46 |
-5 |
1 |
336 |
247 |
Oklahoma |
38 |
16 |
22 |
18 |
20 |
18 |
20 |
|
|
17 |
21 |
-1 |
-1 |
353 |
268 |
Tennessee |
67 |
30 |
37 |
33 |
34 |
33 |
34 |
|
|
44 |
23 |
11 |
11 |
397 |
291 |
Texas |
222 |
111 |
111 |
122 |
100 |
126 |
96 |
|
|
147 |
75 |
25 |
21 |
544 |
366 |
Vermont |
16 |
4 |
12 |
5 |
11 |
2 |
14 |
|
|
0 |
16 |
-5 |
-2 |
544 |
382 |
Virginia |
95 |
43 |
52 |
48 |
47 |
52 |
43 |
|
|
62 |
33 |
14 |
10 |
606 |
415 |
3/5/2016
|
Kansas |
33 |
14 |
19 |
16 |
17 |
14 |
19 |
|
|
10 |
23 |
-6 |
-4 |
616 |
438 |
CLINTON BY 196
|
Louisiana |
51 |
26 |
25 |
29 |
22 |
33 |
18 |
|
|
37 |
14 |
8 |
4 |
653 |
452 |
Nebraska |
25 |
10 |
15 |
11 |
14 |
10 |
15 |
|
|
10 |
15 |
-1 |
0 |
663 |
467 |
3/6/2016 |
Maine |
25 |
9 |
16 |
10 |
15 |
10 |
15 |
|
|
8 |
17 |
-2 |
-2 |
671 |
484 |
CLINTON BY 187 |
3/8/2016
|
Michigan |
130 |
55 |
75 |
62 |
68 |
63 |
67 |
|
|
63 |
67 |
1 |
0 |
734 |
551 |
CLINTON BY 211
|
Mississippi |
36 |
18 |
18 |
20 |
16 |
23 |
13 |
|
|
32 |
4 |
12 |
9 |
766 |
555 |
3/12/2016 |
Northern Marianas |
6 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
4 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
770 |
557 |
CLINTON BY 212 |
3/15/2016
|
Florida |
214 |
94 |
120 |
105 |
109 |
116 |
98 |
|
|
141 |
73 |
36 |
25 |
911 |
630 |
CLINTON BY 314
|
Illinois |
156 |
73 |
83 |
81 |
75 |
85 |
71 |
|
|
79 |
77 |
-2 |
-6 |
990 |
707 |
Missouri |
71 |
30 |
41 |
34 |
37 |
36 |
35 |
|
|
36 |
35 |
2 |
0 |
1026 |
742 |
North Carolina |
107 |
54 |
53 |
59 |
48 |
57 |
50 |
|
|
60 |
47 |
1 |
3 |
1086 |
789 |
Ohio |
143 |
60 |
83 |
67 |
76 |
71 |
72 |
|
|
80 |
63 |
13 |
9 |
1166 |
852 |
3/20/2016 |
Democrats Abroad |
13 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6.5 |
7 |
|
|
4 |
9 |
-3 |
-2.5 |
1170 |
861 |
CLINTON BY 309 |
3/22/2016
|
Arizona |
75 |
33 |
42 |
37 |
38 |
34 |
41 |
|
|
42 |
33 |
5 |
8 |
1212 |
894 |
CLINTON BY 286
|
Idaho |
23 |
10 |
13 |
11 |
12 |
9 |
14 |
|
|
5 |
18 |
-6 |
-4 |
1217 |
912 |
Utah |
33 |
12 |
21 |
14 |
19 |
14 |
19 |
|
|
6 |
27 |
-8 |
-8 |
1223 |
939 |
3/26/2016
|
Alaska |
16 |
7 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
|
|
3 |
13 |
-5 |
-4 |
1226 |
952 |
CLINTON BY 218
|
Hawaii |
25 |
13 |
12 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
8 |
17 |
-6 |
-4 |
1234 |
969 |
Washington |
101 |
44 |
57 |
49 |
52 |
42 |
59 |
|
|
27 |
74 |
-22 |
-15 |
1261 |
1043 |
4/5/2016 |
Wisconsin |
86 |
33 |
53 |
37 |
49 |
38 |
48 |
36 |
50 |
38 |
48 |
1 |
0 |
1299 |
1091 |
CLINTON BY 208 |
4/9/2016 |
Wyoming |
14 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
9 |
3 |
11 |
7 |
7 |
0 |
2 |
1306 |
1098 |
CLINTON BY 208 |
4/19/2016 |
New York |
247 |
127 |
120 |
139 |
108 |
122 |
125 |
119 |
128 |
139 |
108 |
0 |
17 |
1445 |
1206 |
CLINTON BY 239 |
4/26/2016
|
ConnectIcut |
55 |
22 |
33 |
25 |
30 |
27 |
28 |
24 |
31 |
28 |
27 |
3 |
1 |
1473 |
1233 |
CLINTON BY 291
|
Delaware |
21 |
9 |
12 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
1485 |
1242 |
Maryland |
95 |
45 |
50 |
50 |
45 |
53 |
42 |
52 |
43 |
61 |
34 |
11 |
8 |
1546 |
1276 |
Pennsylvania |
189 |
77 |
112 |
86 |
103 |
93 |
96 |
88 |
101 |
106 |
83 |
20 |
13 |
1652 |
1359 |
Rhode Island |
24 |
9 |
15 |
10 |
14 |
11 |
13 |
8 |
16 |
11 |
13 |
1 |
0 |
1663 |
1372 |
5/3/2016 |
Indiana |
83 |
35 |
48 |
39 |
44 |
39 |
44 |
35 |
48 |
39 |
44 |
0 |
0 |
1702 |
1416 |
CLINTON BY 286 |
5/7/2016 |
Guam |
7 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
3.5 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
0.5 |
1706 |
1419 |
CLINTON BY 287 |
5/10/2016 |
West Virginia |
29 |
11 |
18 |
12 |
17 |
12 |
17 |
10 |
19 |
11 |
18 |
-1 |
-1 |
1717 |
1437 |
CLINTON BY 280 |
5/17/2016
|
Kentucky |
55 |
22 |
33 |
25 |
30 |
27 |
28 |
22 |
33 |
28 |
27 |
3 |
1 |
1745 |
1464 |
CLINTON BY 272
|
Oregon |
61 |
23 |
38 |
26 |
35 |
24 |
37 |
16 |
45 |
26 |
35 |
0 |
2 |
1771 |
1499 |
TOTALS |
|
|
|
|
1622 |
1648 |
1640 |
1630 |
|
|
1771 |
1499 |
+149 |
+131 |
|
|
|
|
How the Race Ends
Sec Clinton is on a glide path to the nomination, and has been for sometime. After yesterday’s results she only needs 255 more pledged delegates to get to the majority of pledged delegates at 2026. Further, when combined with her superdelegates (524 according to the AP), she only needs 88 more delegates to get to the majority (2383) of delegates needed to claim the nomination. With 67 delegates available between the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, Hillary will have to wait until June 7 to claim the nomination. By the time New Jersey polls close, Hillary should have enough delegates to get to 2383 and by the time California votes are counted she’ll easily have a majority of all pledged delegates.
How will Sen. Sanders respond after June 7th when Hillary Clinton claims the nomination as the first female candidate for President from a major party? I hope and expect that he summons the class and dignity to respond like Hillary Clinton did in 2008, or even as Al Gore did in 2000 after the Supreme Court ruled against him. Those two candidates had much closer races than Bernie’s and yet they both rose to the occasion, put the well being of their party and country ahead of personal interests, and respected the institution of the nation’s democracy. Bernie Sanders would do well to listen to their concession speeches.