On Tuesday, voters in Indiana will cast ballots in their state’s presidential primary, but they’ll also be voting in downballot primaries as well. The Republican Senate contest takes center stage, and two House battles are also on the menu for the GOP. Below is our look at the key races to watch. Polls close in most of Indiana at 6 PM ET, with the small portion of the state in the Central time zone closing an hour later. As always, we’ll be liveblogging all the results at Daily Kos Elections.
● IN-Sen (R): Sen. Dan Coats is retiring (again), and two congressmen from opposite wings of the Republican Party are trying to succeed him. Marlin Stutzman, a tea partier from the Fort Wayne area who took a respectable second place against Coats in the GOP primary in 2010 (when this seat was last open), is trying again. However, Stutzman, a member of the notorious House Freedom Caucus that helped send John Boehner to an early political grave, has never had a good relationship with the House leadership. Washington Republicans remember how tea partier Richard Mourdock cost the party Indiana’s other Senate seat in 2012, and they fear that Stutzman would give Democrats a good chance to flip this seat, too. Stutzman’s opponent on Tuesday couldn’t be more different stylistically: Rep. Todd Young, a southern Indiana congressman and an ally of the GOP establishment.
Stutzman tried to assure national Republicans that he was capable of running a strong race, and he initially hired several Beltway veterans, but his campaign has not gone according to script. Late last year, Stutzman replaced most of his senior staff with local operatives more tied to conservative insurgents. Stutzman’s fundraising collapsed afterwards, and Young has decisively outspent him on the airwaves ever since.
While the Club for Growth, a powerful anti-tax group, endorsed Stutzman early on, they’ve evidently decided that his chaotic campaign is not worth trying to prop up. Stutzman may have also burned his last bridges with the establishment in February after both he and state Democratic Party tried to get Young knocked off the ballot for not submitting enough valid signatures. Young survived the challenge after the Republican members of the state’s Election Commission ruled in his favor, but Stutzman’s decision to align himself with the Democrats left his fellow party members spitting bile.
While Young’s allies have spent millions running ads on his behalf and hitting Stutzman, Stutzman’s friends have barely lifted a finger for him. Stutzman managed to close the race with a round of bad headlines in the final weeks when a story broke detailing how he spent campaign funds for a family vacation to Southern California. Three polls have been released in the past week, and they all show Young decisively winning. The winner will face ex-Rep. Baron Hill, a Democrat who was unseated by Young in 2010, in the fall. Hill has raised little money, and national Democrats are unlikely to invest much in him unless Stutzman pulls off a miracle and wins on Tuesday.
● IN-03 (R): Three notable Republicans are competing to succeed Stutzman in this safely red Fort Wayne-area seat. State Sen. Jim Banks has the backing of the powerful Club for Growth, and, in a contrast to their treatment of Stutzman, they’ve been running ads on Banks’ behalf. Well-connected farmer Kip Tom has also been running his own commercials, while state Sen. Liz Brown doesn’t have too much money or outside support herself. However, unlike Tom and Banks, Brown hasn’t been attacked much of TV. The only independent poll of the race gave Banks a 29-23 lead over Tom, with Brown just behind at 22.
● IN-09 (R): What started as a pretty quiet GOP primary for Young's solidly red southern Indiana seat went off the rails once wealthy businessman Trey Hollingsworth showed up. Hollingsworth only moved to Indiana from Tennessee just before he launched his campaign, but he’s used his fortune to get his name out. Hollingsworth's father has also financed a super PAC that has run ads boosting his son and bashing Greg Zoeller, the state attorney general and one of three major rival candidates.
There are undoubtedly many people who would be disgusted to be represented by some rich guy who just parachuted into their community and attempted to buy a seat in Congress. But since Hollingsworth and his dad have been dominating the airwaves, plenty of primary voters may not have any idea Hollingsworth is anything but the conservative Hoosier he's presenting himself as.
State Sen. Erin Houchin did recently go up with an ad hitting Hollingsworth as "a Tennessee millionaire who just moved here to try and buy our seat in Congress,” but she doesn’t have anywhere near the type of resources that Hollingsworth has, so her attack was likely seen by a far smaller audience. State Sen. Brent Waltz and Zoeller had even less money, so they haven’t been able to go after Hollingsworth much on TV either. And in this crowded field, Hollingsworth can take the nomination with just a plurality. Indeed, a few weeks ago, Hollingsworth’s super PAC released a poll giving him a 28-16 lead against Zoeller, and no one has released contradictory numbers.
Of course, there is more to victory than just ads. Republican operatives say that Hollingsworth doesn't have much of a ground game, and he has few, if any, local allies helping him. These same operatives add that they’ve heard almost nothing from Hollingsworth, who has mostly avoided the media. And unlike Hollingsworth, the other three candidates also have their own bases of support from their previous campaigns. Still, this primary will be on the same day as Indiana's very high-profile presidential contest. If voters who only care about the Ted Cruz-Donald Trump fight just back the House candidate whose ads they've seen so many of, that will benefit Hollingsworth. Romney carried this seat 57-41, and it will more than likely stay in GOP hands in November. However, Democrats do have a credible candidate in Monroe County Councilor Shelli Yoder, and this seat could be worth watching if Hollingsworth takes the GOP nod.
