According to the HuffPost poll tracker, “Our model of the polls suggests Sanders is very likely leading. (In >99% of simulations, Sanders led Trump.)”
Meanwhile, “the polls suggests Clinton is probably leading. (In 79.97% of simulations, Clinton led Trump.)”
Sanders is more electable than Hillary per the polls, an 8.6% relative difference in the HuffPost model.
If you compare the above charts, note that the axis are different (since I did not want to customize the charts). Beyond the obvious differences (Sanders vs Hillary), what I noticed is that in 2015, Trump did occasionally outperform Hillary and even Sanders in polls. So, despite the last few months of terrible polling for Trump, he did poll much closer to our candidates in a not too distant past.
Perhaps Trump’s actions will irreparably harm his electoral chances, but don’t bet on it. Our current state of affairs is a monumental crisis of democracy, where a presidential candidate is openly seeking unfettered powers to take destructive actions that will degrade most of our futures.
I wanted a better comparison of Sanders versus Hillary’s performance against Trump (to help make the case that Sanders is more electable), and so I made this table. Only half of pollsters (7 of 14) that were in the field in May included Sanders against Trump providing 10 of 20 total polls with comparable data. In these 10 polls conducted in May, Sanders performs 7% 8% better than Hillary does against Trump.
The difference was exactly 6.9% 7.6% in these 10 polls, and the above HuffPost model puts the gap between Sanders and Clinton at 8.6%.
Peace.
Edits: I fixed a difference in the Table.
Tuesday, May 24, 2016 · 10:51:53 AM +00:00
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distraught
Over the past 10+ years, I think I’ve made many good contributions to this site. I’ll vote for HRC in the general, but I’m done contributing to this site. Any online advocacy I do going forward will be on behalf of supporting more and especially better politicians. Peace.