EDIT: Evidently, between the time I started this and finished it, Trump has admitted to punking Bernie Sanders. There will be no debate.
My frustration still stands, though because somehow, Senator Sanders and his not-ready-for-prime-time campaign decided that this would have been a good idea.
It was pure idiocy and gave Trump a news cycle win he didn’t need.
A truly stupid move by Sanders’ Campaign.
For the most part, I’ve tried hard not to say anything about Senator Sanders in anger. If you review my comment history, you’ll see that I’ve worked hard to support my chosen candidate and save for a few comments right around the period when I shifted my support from Sanders to Clinton, I’ve tried hard to be respectful of the Senator, his supporters, and his campaign.
This Fucking Debate is making it hard to stay respectful, not of his supporters — regardless of my feelings about the Senator, I respect your choice — but of the Senator and his campaign.
First things first. There’s no guarantee it will happen. Cooler heads and all that. But if it does, it’s the most ridiculously dumb, short-sighted, stupid, arrogant, display of hubris I have literally ever seen from a candidate in my party.
Beyond that, the optics are awful for all of us. For the first time in history, the nominee for one party is ignoring the front runner and debating the 2nd-place finisher of the other party.
And before you say, “Hillary broke her promise to debate in California, so Sanders has every right to do this,” no. He does not. Front runners refusing to debate their opponents is a time-honored practice. Trump did it, Obama did it, and Clinton is doing it.
But 2nd Place finishers agreeing to debate the general election opponent? Never in history. And whether or not Senator Sanders intends it to, it looks very much like both he and Trump are saying, “Let the men handle it.”
I do not think that sexism is an overt or conscious motivation here, but as a male in his 40’s, if I see it, so will many others.
But even more important than the optics, this debate is a fucking terrible idea for Sanders and by proxy, for everybody who cares about defeating Trump in the fall.
This debate wasn’t arranged by the Make-A-Wish Foundation to grant a dying campaign its dream.
This debate is going to be in the real world and it will have real consequences. The guy playing Trump is really him, the live TV will really be live, and the aftermath will be consequential and difficult for all of us.
For Trump, there's all sorts of reasons to do this. Free air time, high ratings, and opportunities to both appeal to loose Sanders' supporters while also going after Clinton who will not be there to defend herself.
Senator Sanders, of course, is also interested in the free air time. He also likely truly believes that this will be the opportunity to show everybody that he is the best candidate to face Trump in the general.
He’s completely fucking wrong because this debate will not be about ideas. It will not be about issues. It won’t even be about him.
This debate will be about Secretary Clinton.
Trump has no need to debate Senator Sanders on his merits. There’s no margin in it. Sanders is unlikely to be his general election opponent. The only reason to bother with him at all is that he’s a nagging pain for Clinton.
Business and Politics 101: Do what you can to support the ones who are making life difficult for your opponent.
There are only a few ways it plays out:
Trump Goes After Secretary Clinton:
If this happens, then Senator Sanders is going to be in a difficult position. He will either have to ignore the attacks, agree with the attacks, or fight the attacks.
- He agrees with the attacks: he stars in Trump's campaign ads in the general.
- He fights the attacks: he's going to be in the awkward position of defending his primary opponent who he has vowed to defeat because she will do less well against Trump. This will cut into his campaign message and diminish his ability to make it a debate about the issues that he, assumedly, wants to have.
- He ignores the attacks: This would be his most likely move. When Trump attacks Clinton, Sanders does not engage on it -- says something to the effect of "She's not here. Let's talk about us." This will lead to a whole bunch of "answer the question, Senator," moments from the moderator and from Trump and, in the end create worse optics for everybody -- he won't/can't defend Clinton and he won't/can't talk about the issues.
But lets say that Trump actually goes after Sanders. Here’s a fact: He won’t go after him on policies, he’ll go after him on abstractions.
Trump Goes After Sanders:
- Trump plays dirty: gives him a nickname — GrumpyBernie? LooneyBernie? CommmieBernie? Brings up the stuff he wrote when he was in his 30’s and 40’s, brings up Castro and Chavez, brings up the breadlines, calls him a commie. If Senator Sanders argues back about any of it, it’s just going to be met with eye-rolls. Or he goes after Jane Sanders’ Burlington College tenure as a way to show that he can’t be trusted with other people’s money.
- Trump goes after socialism: Sanders spends his entire time on the defensive trying to explain the difference between democratic socialism, socialism, communism, and totalitarianism in front of a Trump friendly crowd. Trump responds with imagery about Castro’s Cuba and Soviet Russia where Sanders went on his honeymoon.
But the more likely thing that happens is that Trump plays for Sanders’ voters by attacking the system.
Trump Attacks the System:
So what does Sanders do with this? He can either defend the system, agree with Trump, or Change The Subject.
- He agrees with Trump: This is, to me, the most likely thing. They co-validate because they’re both outsiders. This has the net effect of making Trump a stronger choice for Sanders supporters who view themselves as outsiders. It has the net effect of harming democrats as a whole, Sanders as an individual (because he’s siding with Trump), and increases Trump’s chances for victory in the fall.
- He defends the system: This would be a very difficult choice for Senator Sanders as he’s built his campaign around the corruption in the system for the last few months. Defending it now would hurt his credibility.
- He Changes the Subject: How?
But what if Sanders goes on the attack? What if he gets under Trump’s skin at the outset, pisses him off, forces errors?
- He won’t. Trump has shown himself to be threatened and vulnerable to smart women and men who might stand in his way. Senator Sanders is neither. He is not a threat to Trump and will not be able to bother him.
There is no way that Sanders does anything but lose in this debate. The only question is how much damage he does to the party and the front-runner in the process.