Leading Off:
● NY-23: Boy, this is sad. Republican Rep. Tom Reed may have thought he hit pay dirt last week when his campaign uncovered documents that just seemed to prove that Democrat John Plumb was little more than a carpetbagger from DC. To that end, Reed released a mortgage document where Plumb identified the Washington area as his primary residence and upstate New York as his secondary home.
There was just one problem: Plumb, a Navy reservist and submarine officer, says he rented a Washington-area apartment while he was working at the Pentagon and that he sold it once he bought a home back in New York's 23rd District, where he's originally from. Plumb put out a statement smacking his opponent, saying, "It's disappointing to see Congressman Reed disparage my service for his own political gain—but I guess his behavior is par for the course for a dishonest Washington politician who is desperate to get reelected but has no record worth defending."
But Reed still thinks he can make this a question about Plumb's loyalty to his would-be constituents. Reed says that, while he totally respects Plumb's service in the Navy, he does not respect Plumb's work as a legislative assistant on military matters to Ken Salazar (who at the time was a Democratic senator from Colorado), nor does he respect Plumb's time at the Defense Department. Reed insisted, "When you're working on a political office for Sen. Ken Salazar or for the chief foreign policy advisor for President Obama, those are more political in nature so we're just trying to make a distinction between the two."
Yeah, keep on trying to make that "distinction." The idea that serving in Obama's Defense Department makes Plumb a political hack might resonate in some parts of the country, but this district is far from safe Republican territory. Romney only carried this Southern Tier seat, which includes the liberal college town of Ithaca, by a 50-48 margin. While Reed easily won here during the 2014 GOP wave, he pulled off an unexpectedly weak 52-48 victory in 2012 against an underfunded Democratic foe.
So far, this race hasn't emerged as a major priority for Democrats, but it's on the radar. The DCCC recently added Plumb to their "Red to Blue" list for top candidates, though no one has made any major ad reservations for the fall. Plumb also had a large $1.03 million to $367,000 cash-on-hand deficit at the end of March. But Reed's clueless comments give Plumb the chance not only to remind voters about his military background but to also attract new donors, since blunders like this are usually good fundraising fodder. If Plumb can take advantage of the opportunity Reed is giving him, he could turn this into a serious contest.
Senate:
● AZ-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is finally out with their spot against Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, which they say is "a six-figure buy." The narrator starts by saying how "Arizona has a lot to be proud of," describing how great the scenery and people are in what feels like a tourism commercial. But rather than insist that you visit beautiful Saguaro National Park, the narrator instead asks, "But what's Ann Kirkpatrick most proud of? It's her vote for Obamacare," before a snippet of the congresswoman calling her vote "the one I'm most proud about" plays repeatedly. Republican incumbent John McCain recently ran a similar spot, and Arizonans can expect to hear a lot more of this message from Team Red.
● CA-Sen: A new survey from the Public Policy Institute of California shows what just about every single other poll has shown: Democrats Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez are the favorites to advance in next month's top-two primary. Harris, the state attorney general, is at 27, while Sanchez, a member of the U.S. House, takes 19 percent. The nearest Republican is former state party chair Tom Del Beccaro, who's far back at 8. Indeed, the GOP field remains badly split, with conservative activist Ron Unz at 6 and another former chair, Duf Sundheim, at 3, meaning Republicans are likely to get completely locked out of the general election.
Even more pathetically, Republicans have been entirely unable to rally around a single candidate. A new group called Californians for Fiscal Responsibility, which appears to be funded by wealthy businessman Charles Munger Jr., is spending $380,000 on mailers to attack … Del Beccaro! Munger apparently has a soft spot for Sundheim (lord only knows why), but Del Beccaro has led him in all but one public poll of the race. It's not like Del Beccaro would have a chance against Harris in November, but if the GOP believes in party building, wouldn't it at least want to give voters a choice? Evidently not.
● CO-Sen: On Wednesday, a judge ordered ex-Aurora City Councilor Ryan Frazier onto the June GOP primary ballot, overturning the secretary of state's ruling that he did not have enough valid signatures. But Frazier has very little money, so this legal victory may be the only win he gets this entire campaign.
Meanwhile, rich guy Robert Blaha has picked up an endorsement from state Sen. Tim Neville. Neville has some connections to far-right gun activists, but his ties to conservatives didn't do him much good at last month's state party convention. Neville tried to win at least 30 percent of the delegates, which would have earned him a spot on the primary ballot. However, most delegates ended up supporting little-known El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn after Glenn delivered a crowd-pleasing speech, and Neville's Senate bid came to an end. With friends like that, who needs enemies? Probably not coincidently, Neville's son and former Senate campaign manager Joe Neville just signed on to run Blaha's campaign.
● FL-Sen: It seems that even Marco Rubio's humiliating presidential campaign, which culminated in his 46-27 loss to Donald Trump in the Florida GOP primary, couldn't destroy the myth of Marco Rubio. On Thursday, Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn publicly called on Rubio to seek re-election to the Senate this year, and NRSC chair Roger Wicker told CNN it was "a very real development." Rubio himself still doesn't sound incredibly interested, and he touted the campaign of his friend, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera. However, Rubio didn't quite close the door on another 2016 campaign, only calling the idea "unlikely." Florida's filing deadline is June 24.
Several candidates are seeking the GOP nod in the late August primary, and the leadership's continued obsession with Rubio really doesn't speak well of any of them. Indeed, CNN reports that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told a closed-door lunch full of Republican senators that he didn't feel good with how the race was progressing, and he implored his colleagues to encourage Rubio to seek another term.
It's not hard to see why the GOP leadership would prefer to have Rubio, warts and all, as their standard bearer instead of one of the blokes who are actually running. Lopez-Cantera may look ok on paper, but he hasn't raised much money; at the end of March, Lopez-Cantera had just $389,000 in the bank, a horrible sum for a campaign in a state as expensive as Florida. Rep. David Jolly has actually sworn off personally asking for money, and he has a horrible relationship with his party. Rep. Ron DeSantis is a favorite of far-right types like the Club for Growth, but the GOP establishment is reportedly skeptical he can win in November.
But DeSantis looks like a bona fide moderate compared to rich guy Carlos Beruff. A little while ago, Beruff characterized President Obama as "this animal we call president," before Beruff sloppily tried to lie his way out of trouble. Finally, there's businessman Todd Wilcox, who just called Social Security a "Ponzi scheme," which is one of the absolute worst things to say in Florida. So yeah, while the Senate GOP's call for Rubio to come back and save them may be embarrassing for everyone involved, he may be their only hope in November.
Of course, as Rubio proved over the last few months, the idea of a Marco Rubio candidacy is better than the actual thing. And with Rubio's standing in Florida GOP politics so bad (again, he lost to Trump 46-27), it's unlikely many of the current field of candidates, save Lopez-Cantera, would get out of the way for him. Rubio has also burned bridges across the state with influential Republicans and party activists, both by running against his one-time mentor Jeb Bush, and with his habit of discarding people after he no longer thinks that he needs them. Maybe Rubio could survive a crowded primary, but it wouldn't be pretty.
In any case, it looks unlikely that Rubio actually is interested in trying his luck. Unless another Republican savior parachutes in before June 24, Republicans are going to have to accept that they need to live with the field they have. And that suits national Democrats, who have sided with Rep. Patrick Murphy over Rep. Alan Grayson, just fine.
● WI-Sen: In the past month or so, Bernie Sanders has directed his massive email list to help fundraising for some House hopefuls and for a slate of legislative candidates, and now he's turning to the Senate. On Thursday, Sanders sent out a message asking his supporters to donate to former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, who is waging a comeback for his old seat against the man who defeated him six years ago, GOP Sen. Ron Johnson. Feingold, who has a good chance at victory, has not made an endorsement in the presidential race.
Gubernatorial:
● NC-Gov: The Civitas Institute's new poll of North Carolina's gubernatorial contest says a lot more about Civitas—or at least their pollster, National Research—than it does about the race. The survey finds GOP Gov. Pat McCrory leading Democratic state Attorney General Roy Cooper by a 45-40 margin, which wouldn't be particularly notable but for the fact that a month ago, National Research had Cooper ahead by a punishing 46-36 spread.
That kind of huge gyration makes no sense in such a short amount of time, even in spite of the hot battle over HB2, and the explanation from Civitas, a conservative think tank, is just laughable. The group's president says that this 15-point shift came about because "the people of North Carolina have watched Governor McCrory defend our state from unjust attacks from the Obama administration." The only question is whether this is just spin, or whether Civitas actually believes it.
● OH-Gov: On Thursday, GOP Attorney General Mike DeWine announced that he would seek the governorship in 2018, when John Kasich will be termed out. DeWine, who served in the U.S. Senate for two terms before losing in 2006, is one of many potential GOP candidates, and maybe he's hoping that an early start will scare off some of his would-be rivals. Several Democrats are also eyeing a bid.
House:
● FL-02: Ex-U.S. Attorney Ken Sukhia is up with his first spot in this safely red North Florida seat. The narrator describes how Sukhia "convicted terrorists, illegal aliens, serial killer Danny Rolling, and the arsonist who burned down over 45 historic churches." The voiceover also says that Sukhia "didn't flinch" when Columbian cartels put out a hit on him. The narrator doesn't mention that Sukhia did all these things about a quarter-century ago, when he worked in George H.W. Bush's administration (though a contemporary newspaper flashes by that's dated 1992).
● HI-01: Ex-Rep. Colleen Hanabusa has expressed interest in running for her old House seat, and unnamed sources tell the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that she's decided to do it. The filing deadline is June 7, and it's likely that Hanabusa will clear the Democratic field if she gets in. Obama carried this Honolulu seat 70-29, and it should be safely blue in a presidential year.
● IA-01: Ex-Cedar Rapids City Councilor Monica Vernon has a huge cash lead over 2014 nominee Pat Murphy, and she has the support of EMILY's List and several Iowa unions. Still, via Roll Call's Simone Pathé, Vernon did release a negative TV spot ahead of the June 7 Democratic primary. Vernon's ad (which was posted to YouTube on May 9) features a welder complaining that Murphy took "thousands from the Republican billionaire Koch brothers," before he describes the Koch's agenda.
As The Gazette explains, KochPAC donated $2,500 to Murphy's state House campaign in 2006, and another $400 in 2010. Murphy has been hitting Vernon for being a Republican until 2009; Vernon's spots and surrogates have stressed her Democratic bona fides, and this commercial may be a sign that she's at least somewhat worried that Murphy's attack could gain traction.
● MN-07: While Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson didn't publicly flirt with retirement this cycle, he never officially announced he was running again. However, Peterson has now filed with the state to seek another term. Romney carried this seat 54-44, but it's probably not going anywhere as long as Peterson is on the ballot. Minnesota's filing deadline is May 31 and right now, the only Republicans running are just Some Dudes.
● NC-02: If Renee Ellmers defeats fellow Rep. George Holding in the June 7 GOP primary for this safely red seat, it will be an upset worthy of the history books. Holding represents 57 percent of the new 2nd District, while Ellmers only represents 18 percent. Holding, a wealthy former U.S. attorney, is well-connected, while Ellmers appears to have only made enemies in her three terms.
The two incumbents' fundraising from April 1 to May 18 tells the story: Holding brought in $267,000 (and transferred an additional $26,000 from another committee), while Ellmers hauled in just $27,000. Holding outspent Ellmers $670,000 to $275,000 during this time as well. Ellmers does hold a $325,000 to $177,000 cash-on-hand edge, but Holding can write himself a check if he wants some fast cash. A third Republican, physician Greg Brannon, raised only $82,000 during this time (which is still more than Ellmers!), and he has $12,000 left.
To make things worse for Ellmers, all the major outside spending has been against her. The Club for Growth hates the congresswoman due to her votes to raise the debt ceiling and reauthorize the Export-Import Bank, and they recently spent $240,000 on a TV ad against her. A pro-Holding super PAC called The American Foundations Committee has also dropped $160,000 on an ad for him that is not currently online. Ellmers did recently go on the offensive with a TV spot that accused the wealthy Holding of using taxpayer dollars to fund his lavish travel. Ellmers is really going to need this message to stick if she's going to have a shot next month, but the signs for her are not encouraging.
● NC-13: A few days ago, the National Association of Realtors' political arm went up with a $258,000 spot (available here) in support of state Rep. Julia Howard in the June 7 GOP primary. The Club for Growth had already put $285,000 behind a commercial for one of Howard's rivals, gun range owner Ted Budd, and they're dropping another $210,000 on their second pro-Budd spot. This time, the Club promotes Budd as a non-politician who will shake up Washington, and promises he'll bring "strong local common sense and conservative values to DC." None of the other fifteen Republican contenders have any TV presence yet.
● NJ-05: On Thursday, Democrat Josh Gottheimer received an endorsement from the political arm of the National Association of Realtors. The NAR is one of the few organizations that spends big for candidates on both sides of the aisle, so they're a good get. Gottheimer if facing Republican Rep. Scott Garrett in what's shaping up to be an expensive contest for this 51-48 Romney seat.
● NY-19: Ex-Assembly Minority Leader John Faso and his allies have been portraying businessman Andrew Heaney, Faso's rival in the June 28 GOP primary, as a Democrat in disguise. Now, Heaney is the one arguing that Faso is the heretic. The narrator in Heaney's TV spot insists that "John Faso's friends made the same attacks against Donald Trump," before Heaney tells the audience, "That's because Donald Trump and I represent everything that John Faso and his cronies hate. We won't take special interest money and we can't be bought." Obama carried this Hudson Valley seat 52-46, so while Heaney's bear hug of Trump may pay dividends in June, it could be a liability in the fall.
Grab Bag:
● Site News: The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest will be taking Monday and Tuesday off for Memorial Day. We'll be back Wednesday.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.