The 2014 Republican wave left Democrats in a 246-188 minority in the House of Representatives. However, this new election cycle seems to hint at a more favorable environment for Democrats across the board given the Trumpocalypse that awaits. Presidential elections almost always mean higher turnout for Democrats, but since the Republicans are running a heavily-flawed nominee, we can expect that to have consequences for them down the ballot. This means Democrats may actually have a chance to retake the House, and Speaker Pelosi could once again become a reality. There are many skeptics out there who think the House is too gerrymandered in the Republican’s favor, but thanks to Trumpocalypse, there may be a formula in which Democrats can obtain a narrow majority, if not larger.
Democrats currently need 31 seats to regain control of the House. While that seems like a heavy haul, it is not impossible. There are instances of open swing seats without any incumbents and even more instances where incumbents were swept in with the 2014 wave in seats that lean Democratic. There are also some special cases like in Florida and Virginia where the courts have ruled against previously gerrymandered maps in favor of more fair maps which have resulted in a handful of Democratic gains.
Let’s begin with the obvious gains. With the new map in Florida, Democrats will gain both the Orlando-based FL-10 and the St. Petersburg-based FL-13, which were made heavily Democratic in the redraw but were previously held by Republicans. However, Democrats will lose the Panhandle-based FL-02, which became too Republican after losing most of Tallahassee. Former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings looks to be the frontrunner in FL-10, while former Governor Charlie Crist has cleared the field in FL-13. In Virginia, the Richmond-area VA-04 went from being a light Republican seat to a seat that gave Barack Obama over 60% of the vote, which will result in another Democratic gain. State Sen. Don McEachin looks to be the frontrunner for that seat.
This leaves Democrats with 29 seats left in order to obtain a majority. The easiest way to begin this is by assuming the 2014 wave incumbents will not survive a Presidential year in seats that lean Democratic. The most likely gain is in NV-04, a 54% Obama district that includes many rural parts of Nevada and a chunk of Clark County that is also 30% Hispanic and 15% African American. The 3-way Democratic primary hasn’t sorted itself out yet, but incumbent Republican Cresent Hardy is definitely the underdog against either State Sen. Ruben Kihuen, former State Rep. Lucy Flores, or businesswoman Susie Lee.
In Iowa, both the Cedar Rapids-based IA-01 and Des Moines-based IA-03 have lucky Republican incumbents that were swept up in the wave but are both terrible campaigners and fundraisers. Both incumbents Rod Blum and David Young should lose to their Democratic challengers if there is indeed a Trumpocalypse. In IA-01, Democrats have a primary between former State House Speaker Pat Murphy and Cedar Rapids City Councilwoman Monica Vernon, and in IA-03, Democrats have a primary between veteran Jim Mowrer and businessman Mike Sherzan.
In Maine, Democrat Mike Michaud always held down ME-02 with ease, but it became open in 2014 and Republican Bruce Poliquin pulled off an upset against Democratic State Sen. Emily Cain. Cain is back for a rematch and should be poised to win this light blue seat which covers the northern half of the state.
In New Hampshire, scandal-tarred GOP incumbent Frank Guinta faces Ex-Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter in the swingy Manchester-based NH-01, but he will have to survive his primary first.
New York is also a state that has many seats ripe for the picking, and many should flip given the Trumpocalypse. In the eastern Long Island-based NY-01, Republican incumbent Lee Zeldin faces two well-funded Democratic challengers. Both Venture Capitalist Dave Calone and Southampton Town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst should have the resources to compete against Zeldin no matter who wins the primary. In the open Hudson Valley-area NY-19, Democrats have a primary between progressive law school professor Zephyr Teachout and Livingston Councilman Will Yandik. While neither is a top tier recruit, it may not matter given the potential wave. The winner will go on to face either rich guy Andrew Heaney or Ex-Assembly Minority Leader John Faso in the general. In NY-21, which covers most of the North Country, incumbent Republican Elise Stefanik has remained mostly popular among voters, but could still find herself a victim of the Trumpocalypse. Democratic Army Officer Mike Derrick is challenging her, but he will need to improve his fundraising if he hopes to win by his own merit. In the open Central New York-based NY-22, Democrats are running Broome County Legislator Kim Myers, while the likely Republican nominee will be Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney, who is very Sarah Palin-esque, which can only help Democrats here. In the Ithaca-based NY-23, Republican incumbent Tom Reed has been embracing Donald Trump, which is strange for an endangered incumbent in a swing seat, but alas, I’m sure Democratic Naval Reserve Officer John Plumb isn’t complaining, and he is sure to use some of Reed’s statements in a couple of attack of ads. Finally, in the Syracuse-based NY-24, Republican incumbent John Katko faces a difficult reelection in a district Obama won by 57%. The Democratic primary consists of Kirsten Gillibrand aide Colleen Deacon and attorney Steve Williams, both of whom should give Katko a fight.
There are several House districts that could see a larger percentage of Hispanic voters show up to the polls, that in part to Trump’s xenophobic rhetoric. The most likely being the Hispanic-majority seat, TX-23, which covers pretty much the entire Texas border with Mexico. Ex-Congressman Pete Gallego is running against incumbent Will Hurd, who defeated Gallego last cycle. This will be a close race, but higher Hispanic turnout would certainly help Gallego here.
Other races include the light blue FL-26 located in South Florida, where incumbent Carlos Curbelo faces a tough race against either businesswoman Annette Taddeo or Ex-Congressman Joe Garcia in a district Obama won by 55%.
In Colorado, Pueblo-based CO-03 and CO-06 situated in the Denver suburbs will both see tight races in November as incumbents Scott Tipton and Mike Coffman face tough challenges from Democratic State Senators Gail Schwartz and Morgan Carroll.
In Nevada’s open NV-03 south of Las Vegas, a crowded Republican field will decide who takes on Democratic Synagogue leader Jacky Rosen, who is a close ally of Harry Reid and should have the connections to run a real race.
In the Tucson-based AZ-02, Republican incumbent Martha McSally defeated a Democratic incumbent in 2014 by less than 200 votes, so Democrats will obviously hope the Trump candidacy will move the needle in their favor this time around. McSally will face either Ex-State Rep. Matt Heinz or Ex-State Rep. Victoria Steele.
California has several swing districts with large Hispanic populations. In Modesto-based CA-10, which is 40% Hispanic, Republican incumbent Jeff Denham faces Democrat Michael Eggman, who is a local farmer and brother of a state legislator. Denham beat back a tough challenger in 2012, but he may not be able to survive Trumpocalypse. In the San Joaquin Valley-based CA-21, Republican incumbent David Valadao has managed to win against weak foes in the past but hopefully this year that will change. He is likely to face attorney Emilio Huerta, son of Dolores Huerta. Hopefully Huerta will be a strong enough candidate to defeat Valadao in this 70% Hispanic district. In CA-25, which encompasses northern Los Angeles, wealthy Democratic attorney Bryan Caforio is hoping he can unseat Republican incumbent Steve Knight in this 35% Hispanic seat.
The Midwest is also a region that will see several competitive House races. In Illinois, IL-10, which includes the wealthy Chicago suburbs, will see a rematch between GOP incumbent Bob Dold and Ex-Congressman Brad Schneider. Both are heavy weight fundraisers and this race will likely be one of the most expensive in the country. While Obama won 58% of the vote here, the area is still prone to electing moderate Republicans like Dold down the ballot. I expect Schneider to try his best to connect Dold to Trump throughout the rest of the cycle.
In Minnesota, two seats in the Minneapolis suburbs are being heavily contested. In the open MN-02, wealthy Democratic healthcare executive Angie Craig has a chance to flip this seat thanks to a crowded Republican field of underfunded candidates. In MN-03, GOP incumbent Erik Paulsen has always held down his swing seat with ease, but Democrats must smell blood, because they were able to recruit State Sen. Terri Bonoff. Bonoff is probably the best shot Democrats will have at taking this seat, and this is probably the cycle to do it.
Michigan has two seats that have a decent shot at flipping. MI-01, located in the Upper Peninsula, and MI-07, located in Ann Arbor. In the open MI-01, State Party chair Lon Johnson looks to be the frontrunner in his primary and has a huge cash advantage against any of his potential GOP foes. This bodes well for a district that is ancestrally Democratic. In MI-07, Democrats landed a star recruit in State Rep. Gretchen Driskell to run against GOP incumbent Tim Walberg. Both candidates have been neck and neck in fundraising and this will be a close race all the way to November.
In Wisconsin, the open Green Bay-based WI-08 should be a hotly contested seat. Democrats landed their best option, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. Nelson should be able to compete against whoever emerges from the GOP primary.
There are also a few instances of big city suburbs that are not feeling President Trump. A prime example is in the Washington D.C. suburbs of VA-10. Democratic real estate executive LuAnn Bennett is challenging GOP incumbent Barbara Comstock. This swing seat sits in an expensive media market and both candidates seem financially capable of duking it out until the bitter end.
In the open PA-08, located in the Philadelphia suburbs, Democratic State Rep. Steve Santarsiero faces Republican FBI agent Brian Fitzpatrick, who has never run for office before. This contest should be interesting and is likely to move the needle for Democrats if Trump is losing Pennsylvania by a decent margin.
In the Seattle suburbs of WA-08, GOP incumbent Dave Reichert has always defended his seat despite it being very swingy. However, Democrats landed a good recruit in sportscaster Tony Ventrella, whom the DCCC had been trying to recruit for years. Ventrella should have the resources necessary to run a campaign here, and could give Reichert his toughest race yet, especially during Trumpocalypse.
Honorable Mentions: There are a few honorable mentions to consider. While I think the seats I discussed have the best shot at flipping, they are not the only ones Democrats are competing in. In Montana’s at-large district, Supt. of Public Instruction Denise Juneau is trying to unseat GOP incumbent Ryan Zinke, however I feel like the natural red hue of MT-AL is too much for a House candidate to overcome, but if for some reason Trump is losing the state in polling, I would revisit this race. In the Charleston-based WV-02, carpet bagging GOP incumbent Alex Mooney barely won this seat in 2014 despite the Republican wave, and so Democrats are fielding veteran Cory Simpson. I fully expect Simpson to attack Mooney on his previous Maryland residency, but Mooney now has incumbency on his side and the district is very conservative, so for those reasons I have a hard time seeing this seat as a pickup. In the Northern New Jersey area NJ-05, Clinton White House aide Josh Gottheimer is attempting to unseat GOP incumbent Scott Garrett, who has angered party establishment with his terrible record on LGBT rights. Gottheimer has actually been outraising Garrett in fundraising, however, the district is ancestrally Republican down the ballot, which only helps Garrett. In Southern Michigan’s MI-08, Little House on the Prairie actress Melissa Gilbert is challenging GOP incumbent Mike Bishop, and while this seat is indeed swingy, Gilbert comes with a lot of baggage, including her 2009 defense of Roman Polanski on television, which is surely to come up in attack ads. Thus I am compelled to say Democrats won’t win here unless the wave is very strong. In Salt Lake City’s UT-04, attorney Doug Owens is challenging GOP incumbent Mia Love again. While Owens did come within a few points of upsetting Love in 2014, Love now has the power of incumbency and hasn’t done much to alienate the voters in her conservative district. Democrats could make seats like AK-AL, IL-12, PA-06, and WI-07 competitive if the Democrats in those races stepped up their fundraising. Democrats also need to recruit candidates for FL-07 and KS-03.
Thank you for reading! I will revisit these races in October.
Comment below and let me know your thoughts.