In 1988, Republican presidential candidate George H.W. Bush had a yuuuuuge problem. Democrats controlled both houses of Congress, and his involvement in the Iran Contra fiasco was being investigated by a House committee and an independent counsel. In short, Bush I faced a very real possibility of impeachment and removal from the office he was running for. So to avoid that, he picked as his running mate a man so unqualified for the presidency that no Democrat who cared about the country would dare vote to impeach or convict him. It was a brilliant move and worked perfectly.
I think Donald Trump’s in the same boat.
If President Trump does what candidate Trump is promising, the impeachable offenses will start coming his first week in office. How likely is it that House Republicans will join their Democratic colleagues in voting for impeachment (or that Senate Republicans will join in a vote to convict)? If such a vote would land Vice President Ryan (or Rubio or any other “establishment” veep) in the Oval Office, then I think it’s pretty damn likely. So it’s in Trump interest to run with a Sarah Palin or a Ben Carson, i.e., with someone who’s just as odious to Republicans in Congress as Trump is. I can’t see him picking Palin — his ego won’t fit on the same stage as hers. But Carson would be perfect!
It will be interesting to see how this plays out in Cleveland, where zippo delegates are bound to vote for Trump’s choice of running mate. Will the Vice Presidency be the Republican establishment’s firewall against Trumpian excess? Can they force on him a running mate they would see placed in the Oval Office following impeachment of President Trump? Would the Koch brothers see this as an opportunity to bring Trump to heel? I guess we’ll find out in a few months!