By this point, most people who follow the news will be familiar with the horrific wildfires in Alberta, Canada, described in diaries by other Kossacks. These fires have forced the evacuation of over eighty thousand people, many from the city of Fort McMurray. Much of the city has been destroyed, and the conflagration has burned 400,000 acres, with Alberta Premier Rachel Notley warning that the fire could continue for months.
The images of devastation and fleeing people coming out of Canada are bad enough. However, they become even more disturbing in the face of a recent Rolling Stone article by former firefighter Kyle Dickman warning that a similar situation could eventually face New Jersey. The state’s Pine Barrens are at serious risk for a massive fire if a major drought hits.
My Gut Reaction: So New Jersey will have a source of hot air worse than Chris Christie.
The opening page of the article relates a chilling vision of what could await the state if a wildfire hits:
If the conditions are right, experts predict that on a dry morning in late April or May — the height of wildfire season in the reserve — the dense forest between Philadelphia and Atlantic City could explode into an inferno that moves as fast as any out West. In a worst-case scenario, the fire might start just east of, say, the 7,000 person town of Tabernacle. Flames fueled by pine needles and 40-mile-an-hour winds will crawl within minutes from the forest floor to the crowns, growing from 20 to 30 to 70 feet tall as they leap between trees and over sandy roads. Between Tabernacle and the Atlantic Oceans are 30 miles of thick woodlands interspersed with a dozen retirement communities, a military base and a nuclear generator. If it is Memorial Day, there will also be thousands of vacationers.
In the face of such a disaster, firefighters would have to engage in triage, leaving some people and buildings to be burned in order to save others. As a fire chief interviewed in the article notes, hikers on New Jersey’s Batona Trail would have to be left to the fire
The risk of disaster has magnified by extensive development in the region of the Pine Barrens, which is now resident to over 100,000 people as well as a highly flammable forest. The risks of developing in this area have been recognized since at least 1980, when an article entitled “Development in the Pine Barrens: A Design for Disaster” was published in New Jersey Outdoors. As the article described, the ecology of the Pine Barrens makes it ripe for a massive fire:
The highly acid soils of the Pine Barrens lack earthworms and other organisms that would normally incorporate leaves and pine needles into the soil. Consequently, there is a rapid buildup of litter. Unless this fuel accumulation is periodically reduced, under controlled conditions, intense fires result which kill or severely damage the overstory. The vertical continuity of fuels enables flames to spread from the ground into treetops, resulting in dangerous and destructive crown fires.
As Dickman explains in his more recent article, things have only gotten worse since 1980. The Pinelands now house half a million people and over a billion dollars in property. If a severe fire broke out, timely evacuation might well prove impossible, at a toll of potentially hundreds of lives. Even with modern firefighting technology, mass casualties might be unavoidable. Consider, for example, the case of the Black Saturday Bushfires in Australia in 2009.
Further adding to the risk is that past efforts at fire suppression have allowed combustible fuel to build up in the Pine Barrens. Seasonal burns used to thin out forests, preventing enough fuel from accumulating to feed a catastrophic fire. Furthermore, climate change has produced warmer temperatures, which promote the outbreak of wildfires and extend the fire season.
Ultimately, readers should remember the warning of the world’s most prominent wildfire expert, Stephen J. Pyne. As he told Dickman:
Sooner or later, southern New Jersey will know the fire equivalent of Hurricane Sandy. The cost could be in the billions. The loss of life could be unthinkable.