I have seen this argument being made again today and for what it is worth finally feel motivated enough to try and put it to rest.
The argument is contradictory and as such makes a fundamental error in logic.
It goes like this:
- There are 4,051 pledged delegates and 719 super delegates available for the Democratic primary race.
- A candidate needs 2,383 delegates (50% + 1) to win the Democratic nomination.
- Super delegates do not count only pledged delegates count in the overall delegate total
Therein is the logical flaw.
If super delegates do not count, then they cannot be included in the overall delegate total. To do so, skews the actual number of delegates a candidate needs to win the nomination. What is actually being claimed is:
- There are 4,051 delegates available for the Democratic primary race
- A candidate needs 2,383 delegates or 58% + 1 to win the Democratic nomination.
But that is nonsense. Why would the number be 58%?
Therefore, to correctly determine what the correct number of required delegates needed if you were to eliminate the super delegates, the correct claim is:
- There are 4,051 delegates available for the Democratic primary race
- A candidate needs 2,026 delegates (50% + 1) to win the Democratic nomination.
Either super delegates count as votes or they do not. If they do not, then any candidate, who wins more than 2025 delegates, wins the nomination. If they do, then any candidate who wins more than 2,382 delegates – pledged AND super – wins the nomination.
It is simple logic.
You cannot eliminate the votes of the super delegates from the overall delegate totals but include them in the number needed to win the nomination. That is illogical, senseless and – quite frankly – bizarre.