The headline, which comes from a 2013 American Values survey, seems significant to me because the white male demographic is also very prominent among the voters who support Donald Trump.
That is not to say that Trump voters and Libertarians are part of the same exact set, more like overlapping sets in a Venn diagram. But it does suggest that the more people who can be persuaded to vote Libertarian, the fewer voters there will be available to elect Trump.
I would hazard a guess that Libertarians are, on the whole, better educated than the average Trump voter. The early internet was rabidly, small ‘l’ libertarian, and a lot of Libertarians are techy types, consumed with the notion that information wants to be free while at the same time arguing for strong, unbreakable encryption for all. Libertarians are a small self-selected group who reject either major party on philosophical grounds. Which eliminates most of the usual low-information voters that support Trump. Nevertheless, if the Libertarian pool can be expanded in 2016, it will probably at the expense of Trump.
Gary Johnson, the current Libertarian party nominee, was the most successful Libertarian candidate ever, when he ran in 2012. Which isn’t saying much. Still, he brings a lot to the table, having been a two -term Republican governor of New Mexico. And this year, to add to the attraction, his running mate is William Weld, a former Republican governor of Massachusetts. So two highly regarded Republican governors, now Libertarian.
For those who don’t know, Libertarians are small government types with more ideological consistency that you would get from Republicans. This means that they would limit federal government activities to those enumerated by the Constitution, i.e. defense and regulating interstate commerce and not much else. Whole cabinet level departments, like Education and Labor, would go by the wayside.
On the other hand, Libertarians are “socially liberal” but not because they are really liberal, its just that they don’t think that sex or drug use or abortion or who you get married to are in any way the government’s business. So marijuana gets legalized. Gay marriage is A OK.
Libertarians, in general, are against foreign entanglements, so bombing folks for no apparent reason is out.
My own personal view is that libertarian is a fancy word for “selfish asshole.” Libertarians are against things like food stamps or disability payments, figuring that those things are best handled by private charity. As if.
But the point of this diary is that this may be a breakout year for the Libertarian Party. Two ex-Republican governors running in a year when Republicans are having trouble coming up with a reason to support their own nominee. In a year when both the nominees of both parties have unfavorables in excess of 50%.
What is the major stumbling block for third parties in these United States? It is apparently a rule by the Commission on Presidential Debates that a party must poll at least 15% to be included in the presidential debate. This rule has not been legislated anywhere, it is just a collusion by the two major parties to deter competitors.
Another problem, of course, is that polling firms are not required to even include minor parties in their polling. But if Trump keeps on flailing, and Johnson and Weld are successful in prosecuting their case, this could be the year that the Libertarian Party meets the threshold.
Personally, I hope they do, not because I care about the Libertarian Party, but I think the two party system has outlived its usefulness. Beyond that, if the Libertarians can poll 15%, this is great news, given the demographics, not for John McCain, but for Hillary Clinton and the Democratic party.